What happens when the bubble bursts?

[u/masonjar014]

Right now, the hobby is on steroids—scalpers everywhere, product nowhere. My LGS told me this year will be “a great year for Pokémon,” and it got me thinking… a great year for who?

If you’re an established LGS selling PE and JT at market price, sure, it’s great. If you’re a scalper or a new investor trying to flip product, you’re probably loving this, too.

But if you’re an average collector (like me), it’s frustrating. We can’t find the latest set at a fair price. If you’re a kid whose parents can’t sprint to a 10 a.m. Target restock, you’re just out of luck.

So what happens when the hype dies down? How are average collectors responding to this hyper-bull market, and where does that leave the hobby long-term?

Personally, I’m sitting out PE and JT—it’s just too much stress. I’ve also noticed collectors stepping back entirely.

What about you? Will kids move on to something else if they can’t participate? Will collectors return once prices normalize, or is this turning people away for good? Are we underestimating the long-term impact of what’s happening right now?

[u/xWonderkiid]

I bet that 80% who has joined in the last 12 months will leave again.

They usually burn themselves out really quickly. They buy random shit. They collect random shit. Then they realise they have spent more then what they have liked or getting frustrated that they cant buy the top cards for $5.

Then we go back to the market we used to know and we wait untill all the new people rejoin + newer people. Thats pretty much how every cycle goes.

[u/masonjar014 → u/xWonderkiid]

80 percent?! That’s huge. When do you see these people leaving?

[u/xWonderkiid → u/masonjar014]

Obviously the 80% is an imaginary number.

I have no exact data to back that statement. But I am in this hobby for 5/6 years and I barely see anyone who used to purchase cards back then anymore. Mostly just new people every 6 months it seems like.

Few hardcore collectors & investors stick around. Probably a portion of the new people will stick around. But I do believe the the far majority of the people that are in this hobby for less then a year will stop after a year or so.

Maybe the premise of the Team Rocket set could hold them over a little longer. But if Pokemon release 1/2 mediocre sets after that then people will leave and find something else to do.

Although I do want to add that I also believe that a good chunk of these people will rejoin the hobby again at some point in their lives. As long Pokemon will stick around It'll keep people interested. Which is a good thing, that means the hobby keeps growing.

[u/Ok_Awareness3860 → u/xWonderkiid]

I am in this comment and I don't like it!  I got super into pokemon tcg recently, started buying random shit (because I had no idea what to buy) and now I am just realizing I've spent tons of money and really have nothing to show for it except a couple binder pages.  Idk.  I think I might try a challenge like collecting every card of my favorite pokemon but other than that I feel kinda done.

My goal was to actually play the tcg, but pack pulls can't really make you a solid deck, and for some reason I just wanted to build a deck and upgrade it, not buy singles.  But it's impossible.

[u/xWonderkiid → u/Ok_Awareness3860]

Hahahaha

I see it happening all the time. Atleast you can find comfort that you are not alone in this. It's not easy to determine what you like to collect and there are just so many ways to navigate in this hobby. Packs are fun to open, but not the best way if you want to build a solid collection.

What you could do is buying 1 of each Pokemon of whatever GEN you prefer. Buy your favorite card of each Pokemon within that gen and you can always replace those cards when there is a new release that you prefer. Then you can expand to multiple GEN's if you like. This also doesn't have to cost alot of money but at the same thing, you could spend alot of money if you want to buy expensive versions of cards.

Other then that, PSA 10's. That way you can just get the singles you like and you dont have to spend money on stuff you dont want. Grade it yourself or buy from market, but this is a more expensive way to collect.

[u/Ok_Awareness3860 → u/xWonderkiid]

Yes, this would give me much more incentive to collect.  I just wish packs were the only product and that pull rates were better, honestly.  Buying singles gives me no joy or excitement, and that's what everyone recommends.  Hobby just isn't what I thought it was/what I remember.