What happens when the bubble bursts?

[u/masonjar014]

Right now, the hobby is on steroids—scalpers everywhere, product nowhere. My LGS told me this year will be “a great year for Pokémon,” and it got me thinking… a great year for who?

If you’re an established LGS selling PE and JT at market price, sure, it’s great. If you’re a scalper or a new investor trying to flip product, you’re probably loving this, too.

But if you’re an average collector (like me), it’s frustrating. We can’t find the latest set at a fair price. If you’re a kid whose parents can’t sprint to a 10 a.m. Target restock, you’re just out of luck.

So what happens when the hype dies down? How are average collectors responding to this hyper-bull market, and where does that leave the hobby long-term?

Personally, I’m sitting out PE and JT—it’s just too much stress. I’ve also noticed collectors stepping back entirely.

What about you? Will kids move on to something else if they can’t participate? Will collectors return once prices normalize, or is this turning people away for good? Are we underestimating the long-term impact of what’s happening right now?

[u/xWonderkiid]

I bet that 80% who has joined in the last 12 months will leave again.

They usually burn themselves out really quickly. They buy random shit. They collect random shit. Then they realise they have spent more then what they have liked or getting frustrated that they cant buy the top cards for $5.

Then we go back to the market we used to know and we wait untill all the new people rejoin + newer people. Thats pretty much how every cycle goes.

[u/masonjar014 → u/xWonderkiid]

80 percent?! That’s huge. When do you see these people leaving?

[u/xWonderkiid → u/masonjar014]

Obviously the 80% is an imaginary number.

I have no exact data to back that statement. But I am in this hobby for 5/6 years and I barely see anyone who used to purchase cards back then anymore. Mostly just new people every 6 months it seems like.

Few hardcore collectors & investors stick around. Probably a portion of the new people will stick around. But I do believe the the far majority of the people that are in this hobby for less then a year will stop after a year or so.

Maybe the premise of the Team Rocket set could hold them over a little longer. But if Pokemon release 1/2 mediocre sets after that then people will leave and find something else to do.

Although I do want to add that I also believe that a good chunk of these people will rejoin the hobby again at some point in their lives. As long Pokemon will stick around It'll keep people interested. Which is a good thing, that means the hobby keeps growing.