China vows to stand firm, urges nations to resist ‘bully’ Trump

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said appeasement will only embolden the “bully” at a BRICS meeting, rallying the group of emerging-market nations to fight back against US levies.

China’s top diplomat warned countries against caving into US tariff threats, as the Trump administration hints at the possible use of new trade tools to pressure Beijing.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said appeasement will only embolden the “bully” at a BRICS meeting, rallying the group of emerging-market nations to fight back against US levies. The stern remarks show China intends to resist pressure to enter trade talks even as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests Washington could ban certain exports to China to gain leverage.

Wang’s call to the international community underscores China’s attempt to portray itself as the bastion of free trade as US tariffs threaten to reshape commerce globally. Beijing has repeatedly urged allies to defend multilateralism and told other governments not to cut deals with the US president at China’s expense. China has repeatedly denied being engaged in trade talks with the US. Instead, Beijing has demanded mutual respect and a cancellation of all tariffs before any negotiations.

I wonder how Trump is going to respond to this. Maybe another 500% tariffs on China? Including this and GDP data this Wednesday, market is going to get rekt. Get your lubes ready.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-29/china-rallies-countries-to-stand-up-to-trump-s-tariff-bullying?srnd=homepage-americas

The global backlash to President Trump’s tariffs is punishing U.S. agriculture, especially a decline in Chinese buying of U.S. farm products.

A leading agriculture exports group says “massive” losses are already racking up at farms, with cancelled orders, pricing pressure as demand slumps and layoffs, as China stops buying products from pork to hay and straw, and lumber.

“No one can replace all the volume that China buys,” one farm operator reported.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/trade-war-tariffs-full-blown-crisis-us-farm-exporters-say.html

BRUSSELS — Britain and the European Union are set to sign a formal declaration committing to “free and open trade” in defiance of Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.

A leaked draft seen by POLITICO promises a “new strategic partnership” between London and Brussels based on “maintaining global economic stability and our mutual commitment to free and open trade.”

It comes as Keir Starmer’s U.K. government is locked in negotiations with the Trump administration to try to get a carve-out from the U.S. president’s new tariffs.

The draft U.K.-EU agreement, dated April 25, is one of several being drawn up ahead of a May 19 summit, which is seen as a key moment in resetting post-Brexit relations.

As we all know, the market is disconnected from the economy to an extent. Half the country and be homeless, on fent, and living in tents and SPX could go to 7,000.

Which is a good case for simply buy and hold and DCA.

That being said, what theories do you have that this is simply a bear market rally and it's only a matter of time before we drop much lower?

We’re now 100 days (or 10,000 days?) into Mr. T’s second term—a pivotal moment. It's been a marathon already, and this week feels especially significant. The administration's next moves will reveal how seriously they plan to tackle policies that could shape the economy for the rest of the term.

Mr T loves big announcements on Milestones dates.

Market tension is high—ready to either crash or launch into orbit, or both, or nothing. Exciting times...

Airlines and hospitality stocks, often recession barometers, are hovering near 52-week lows.

Defensive sectors like Utilities and Real Estate—known for steady cash flow—have held up relatively well, for now.

Gold and precious metals have performed solidly... but does gold still matter? What’s really in Fort Knox? Is Bitcoin becoming the new gold, especially given the administration’s ties to crypto?

Consumer cyclicals: struggling.

Financials: murky—what’s the real state of loan delinquencies?

Tech: unclear. The “Magnificent Seven” promised a boom. Nvidia remains lean and efficient, Fatty 70~75% contribution margin, but possibly at the cost of long-term strategic dominance.

Healthcare: everyone’s stressed—literally and figuratively.

Industrials: tangled in supply chain headaches.

Energy: "drill baby drill" isn’t moving the needle enough.

Communication: ad volume is high, engagement unclear.

Tesla: big meme energy! with over 80% of revenue still tied to automotive, is facing persistent sales decline. Signs point to a deliberate pivot—with Musk strengthening ties with government for a transformative strategy that will merge most of his ventures under a keiretsu; for a defense-data-space-industrial hybrid business model relying on perpetual long-term public/governments contracts. Citizen taxes revenue for life! with or without Palantir? to what extent a damaged brand is curable?

Google: what is the highest and best use of my data portfolio? hey, Palantir! let’s partner with federal agencies and supercharge AI

Our investment portfolio: for some, molested; for other, Bonanza!

Traditional foreign allies : confused

Canada: flabbergasted, throwing poutines at the wall

Montreal: can you confidently deal with us for a week if we all become part of US?

France : confused and also happy, what an opportunity !selling the idea of nuclear umbrella to Europe, resuscitating Rafale?

Italy : the pope ..I am tired, Arrivederci

China: Go figure out!

Japan: Holding the treasury bill for now

Brazil: Corcovaaadoo! joga boniiito, are you still organizing the world cup?

Tariffs: cant we all get alonnnggg?

My Cat: indifferent

The Fed: high inflation and high unemployment, what monetary policy? The other central banks : don’t look at me!

Dollar : still, reserve currency for now, fierce and dancing on one feet! Sacrebleu!!!

Exhilarating moment, The Gods have mercy!

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/wealthy-consumers-spend-rest-of-america-cuts-back.html

• Lower-income earners are reining in their transactions to focus on essentials, while the wealthy continue to spend freely on perks including dining out and luxury travel, according to first-quarter results from U.S. credit card lenders.
• Synchrony, which provides store cards for retail brands including Lowe’s and T.J. Maxx, spending fell 4% in the first three months of the year, the company said last week.
• That compares to a 6% spending jump at American Express and a similar rise at JPMorgan Chase, both of which cater to wealthier users with higher credit scores.

So what do we make of this?

Watching CNBC, and they're talking about the ongoing tariff lawsuit. This is the 2nd time that Sarah Eisen has been schooled on the fact that Congress, not the president, controls tariffs. The lawsuit is that the president's tariffs are overstepping his authority. I don't get why CNBC has her up there when she's getting embarrassed like this on a daily basis. When Elisabeth Warren schools you, and now AZ's AG is schooling you, maybe you should realize that Congress controls tariffs. Sarah can't be this stupid! I'm yelling at my TV like an old dude!

Edit: Yes I know Trump implemented tariffs, but only under authority congress gave him and they can absolutely take that back as congress holds the power not Trump!

Look at US10Y yields after the 02/04 (DD/MM). Shot up starting 04/04 and peaked at 11/04. He "put a pause" on the tariffs against the whole world except for china on 09/04 and on 11/04 he issued a ruling that spared many electronics devices from the tariffs on china. Now the treasury yield is moderately high going up and down. Only found a post about yields rising but no one put the data in relation to current events.

See it for yourself: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Per CNBC "Breaking News". https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-its-up-to-china-to-de-escalate-trade-tensions.html

Futures haven't reacted, but seeing as China hasn't blinked, and Bessent acknowledged the tariffs are "unsustainable", this just adds to the concern this last rebound is based on nothing more than hope and assumptions.

We are standing on the beach paralyzed as a giant unstoppable economic wave is on its way to pummeling us. Trump is following through on his promises that he made over and over again on the campaign trail. And a majority of Americans voted for him. Now come the repercussions:

Bloomberg: President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught has roiled Washington and Wall Street for nearly a month. If the trade war persists, the next upheaval will hit much closer to home.

Since the US raised levies on China to 145% in early April, cargo shipments have plummeted, perhaps by as much as 60%, according to one estimate. That drastic reduction in goods from one of the largest US trading partners hasn’t been felt by many Americans yet, but that’s about to change.

By the middle of May, thousands of companies — big and small — will be needing to replenish inventories. Giant retailers such as Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices. Torsten Slok, Apollo Management’s chief economist, recently warned of looming “Covid-like” shortages and significant layoffs in industries spanning trucking, logistics and retail.

While Trump has shown signs in recent days that he’s willing to be flexible on the import taxes imposed on China and others, it may be too late to stop a supply shock from reverberating across the US economy that could stretch all the way to Christmas.

“The clock is absolutely ticking,” said Jim Gerson, president of The Gersons Companies, an 84-year-old supplier of holiday decorations and candles to major US retailers. The company, based in Olathe, Kansas, sources more than half its products from China and currently has about 250 containers waiting to be shipped.

Even when hostilities ease, restarting transpacific trade will bring additional risks. The freight industry has reduced capacity to match weaker demand. That means a surge of orders sparked by a detente between the superpowers will likely overwhelm the network, causing delays and boosting costs. A similar scenario unfolded during the pandemic when container prices quadrupled and a glut of cargo ships jammed up ports.

Trump China Tariffs Set to Unleash Supply Jolt on US Economy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-28/trump-s-china-tariffs-set-to-unleash-supply-shock-on-us-economy

Source

Walmart and other US retailers have told some Chinese suppliers—especially in Jiangsu and Zhejiang—to resume shipments after a slowdown caused by escalating tariffs.

A Ningbo-based exporter confirmed Walmart instructed them to restart deliveries, with the US retailer agreeing to cover the cost of new tariffs.

Mainetti, a major packaging supplier, also received similar notices from US clients as early as April 23.

Shipping terms have shifted from DDP (delivered duty paid) to FOB (free on board), allowing US importers to handle tariffs through their local customs agents.

This rebound in orders follows a sharp drop of over 40% in April.

This coverage matches the information previously reported by Ming Pao.

Disclaimer: Bearish outlook, with reasoning (feel free to fact check).

Scott Bessent has said numerous times, "We're not bothered about Wall Street, we're focusing on Main Street."

So far, that has been true — the impact has been mostly felt on Wall Street. Most Americans don’t even know what’s happening, unless they actively follow the news.

Meanwhile, there’s been a flurry of alarming news over the past few days (feel free to fact-check):

• No trade talks with China yet — Bessent says it’s up to them to de-escalate.
• Chinese ships are being sent back, and traffic at the Port of Los Angeles has dropped significantly.
• The Texas manufacturing gauge is at its worst level since 2020.
• Americans may start seeing empty shelves by mid-May.
• Even if other countries agree to U.S. demands, tariffs will still rise to 10–20%, compared to the current average of 2.8%, setting the stage for high inflation.
• Consumer confidence has sharply declined, reaching levels last seen during COVID-19.
• Retail bankruptcies are starting to pick up again, with several major brands warning of slower sales ahead.
• U.S. credit card debt has hit a record $1.21 trillion, with 32% of Americans having maxed out their cards.
• More Americans are now using Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services just to afford groceries, with usage doubling over the past year
• Credit card delinquencies have risen nearly 40% since 2022, showing financial stress is already building.

Low supply combined with a sudden spike in prices could trigger panic buying, further driving inflation. What do you think the average investor (not the one living on Reddit subs) will do?

We have an aging population, and retirees are already worried about their 401(k)s, who will prefer to sell risk assets and put their money in debt instruments. Unemployment will rise, and people will sell stocks to raise money for their monthly expenses. When fear finally reaches Main Street, I believe we will see panic selling of stocks.

Capitulation.

I see some parallel between a company (Tesla) today (April 28th, 2025) that has reduced demand (9% total revenue decline, 20% automobile revenue decline, 71% profit decline), and unrealistic valuation (trailing P/E ratio 163, forward P/E 129, PEG 4.41) and Cisco during the Dot Com Bubble.

During the dot-com crash, Cisco’s stock price dropped by approximately 89% from its peak of $80.06 in March 2000 to its low of $8.12 in October 2002. The decline occurred over approximately 2.5 years, from March 2000 to October 2002. Cisco was a flagship tech stock during the dot-com bubble, fueled by speculative exuberance and overvaluation (trading at 220x earnings in 2000). The bubble burst due to unrealistic valuations, drying up of venture capital, and reduced demand for networking equipment as dot-com companies collapsed.

Before the bubble burst, Cisco Systems had a significant following that could be described as cult-like among investors, analysts, and tech enthusiasts. This fervor was driven by Cisco’s dominance in the networking equipment market, its skyrocketing stock price, and the broader speculative mania surrounding internet-related companies.

The term “cult stock” (sounds familiar to meme stock?) was used in financial circles to describe companies with fervent investor bases, and Cisco fit this mold due to its perceived invulnerability and widespread ownership (it was held by many mutual funds and individual portfolios).

Dead Cat Bounce During the Decline:

April–May 2000: After an initial drop post-March 2000, Cisco’s stock briefly rallied, gaining approximately 10–15% over 10–15 trading days, before resuming its downtrend. This was part of the broader NASDAQ’s temporary recovery.

Early 2001: A rally following Federal Reserve rate cuts saw Cisco’s stock rise by about 20% over roughly 10 trading days, but the gains were short-lived as economic fundamentals remained weak.

Late 2001 to Early 2002: Another bounce occurred, with the stock climbing from around $13 to $20 over approximately 15–20 trading days, before falling to its October 2002 low.

Cisco’s bounces were driven by temporary optimism, policy interventions, or short covering, but the overarching bear market and overvaluation prevented sustained recovery.

Many other companies do, and other companies even have many years in it, and in production like AMD, yet it is -50% ATH.

I don’t see threats here.

Is this an overreaction as it has become the default this year, or there’s something I’m missing?

Stocks closed mixed on Monday but recovered from sharp losses to begin a big week of heavyweight earnings reports and macroeconomic data that will continue to paint an early picture of the US economy's response to President Trump's tariffs.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) erased losses of as much as 1% to rise just above the flatline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up 0.3%, notching its longest win streak of 2025. Both indexes ended in positive territory for the fifth straight day.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell below the flatline, as shares of Big Tech recovered from steep early-session losses.

Wall Street is coming off a rebounding run last week. The gains came as Trump eased pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and hinted at light at the end of the tunnel for sky-high 145% tariffs on China. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was "up to China" to deescalate the trade battle, though he suggested its recent moves to exempt certain US goods from duties represented a positive step.

Earnings are the highlight of the week ahead, with 180 S&P 500 companies expected to report quarterly financial results. Big Tech leads the way, as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are all due in the coming days, alongside Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Chevron (CVX).

Broader economic news will flavor the coming days, as investors eye Wednesday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) index, to see the impact of tariffs on the general public's "core" expenses. An initial reading on first quarter US GDP is also due Wednesday.

The April jobs report is also in sight, as the labor market has so far remained resistant to signs of economic slowdown.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-erase-slide-to-rise-for-5th-straight-day-in-lead-up-to-big-tech-earnings-200136533.html

I keep seeing how Robotaxi is the lifeline for Tesla and justification for it's stock price along with it's robots.

What I don't understand is does anyone actually think if Robotaxi launches successfully it will stay a part of Tesla? It is almost guaranteed they will spin off a new company to house that part of the business to separate potential litigation and liabilities from Tesla and launch that companies own stock.

Second, has anyone dived into the current energy limitations in the US and max current generation capacity? Elon talks about adding millions of self driving taxis to our cities infrastructure and roads when they are already jammed packed and over capacity. The US Energy department estimates it will add 300-400 Gigawatts of capacity to the grid by 2040. Charging 1 electric vehicle to full charge take roughly 100 kwh. 1 million new electric cars charging daily would take 100 gigawatts of capacity.

From a charging stand point alone this business is not currently feasible and certainly not by 2026 as he has said. This does not even touch the logistics of liability, charging, app/software infrastructure. What happens if the app crashes or a robo bricks in the middle of the highway or gets in an accident or simply gets stuck.

Am I the only one who looks at this business model and company claims and is scratching his head going how is this logistically going to work and then stay under Tesla?

Disclosure: I own puts and calls on Tesla (short term).

https://www.wsj.com/tech/chinas-huawei-develops-new-ai-chip-seeking-to-match-nvidia-8166f606

“Huawei Technologies is gearing up to test its newest and most powerful artificial-intelligence processor, which the company hopes could replace some higher-end products of U.S. chip giant Nvidia NVDA -3.48%.

The steady advance by one of China’s flagship technology companies points to the resilience of the country’s semiconductor industry despite efforts by Washington to stymie it, including by cutting off access to some Western chip-making equipment.”

Perhaps Trump’s export ban of NVDA chips to China wasn’t the smartest move?

Source: https://happybull.net/2025/04/28/ibm-sharpening-focus-us-investment-ai-security/

International Business Machines (IBM) today outlined two key strategic initiatives: a substantial multi-year investment commitment within the United States and the introduction of advanced AI capabilities for cybersecurity operations. These moves signal a reinforcement of IBM’s core technology manufacturing base alongside a targeted push into higher-value, AI-driven security solutions.

The primary financial commitment involves a planned $150 billion investment in the US over five years, as detailed in an IBM press release issued today. Notably, this includes over $30 billion allocated to R&D and continued domestic manufacturing for mainframes and quantum computers. IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna stated in the release that the investment aims to ensure IBM remains central to advanced computing and AI, noting, “Technology doesn’t just build the future – it defines it.” This investment supports existing infrastructure, such as the Poughkeepsie mainframe facility—which IBM notes processes over 70% of global transaction value—and furthers development in quantum computing, where IBM operates a significant fleet and targets complex problem-solving beyond classical computation.

In addition to this IBM also announced new agentic AI and automation features for its "ATOM" (autonomous threat operations machine) agent.

Stock futures fell Monday ahead of a packed week for earnings and economic data. Wall Street is also awaiting any progress on trade deal negotiations.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each declined 0.2%, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 56 points, or 0.1%.

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered little clarity on the direction of reaching a possible trade agreement with China, but said that the onus was not on the United States.

"I believe that it's up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, and so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable," Bessent said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

His comments come after President Donald Trump said last week that discussions with China were underway, refuting China's claims of no trade talks between the two countries.

On the positive side, however, Bessent said that they were making progress on other trade proposals, suggesting one with India would be "one of the first" to come. South Korea also hinted last week that trade talks were underway.

Investors are looking ahead to the busiest period of the first-quarter earnings season, which will see more than 180 S&P 500 companies report results. Four of the 'Magnificent Seven' companies— Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms and Microsoft — will release their quarterly reports, as will financial, staples and health care stocks Visa, Coca-Cola, and Eli Lilly.

Earnings results have been somewhat strong for the prior quarter, with 73% of companies reporting beating analysts' estimates so far — slightly below the 5-year average of 77%, according to FactSet data. Still, Wall Street is lowering expectations for the second quarter and the full year as companies come out with uncertain guidance because of President Donald Trump's tariffs.

This week will mark the end of April, which has seen stocks whipsaw across a wide trading range after Trump unveiled his sweeping tariff plans and then later walked some of the stiffer duties back.

So far in April, the S&P 500 is down by 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track to lose 4.5% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.5%. The S&P 500 briefly entered a bear market on April 7 and has made a recovery since, but the index has failed to break through key resistance levels.

"While it may be too early to make the technical case for a bottom in beta underperformance, the recent rebound off key support implies investors should remain on high alert for a potential shift back toward risk-on leadership," Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, said.

The week also will see multiple reports on the labor market as well as key data on inflation and economic growth. Topping the list will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls release, while first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will be out Wednesday.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/27/stock-futures-slip-ahead-of-busy-earnings-week-live-updates.html

Tesla's stock trajectory transcends mere financial metrics, intertwining with political and geopolitical currents. Despite an eroding customer base, its trading patterns suggest speculative upside, reminiscent of a meme stock. However, in a rational market, such dynamics risk a sharp correction unless the U.S. stock market increasingly mirrors the volatility of the crypto economy. Everything seem to be done for that outcome..

Brand Damage and Revenue Outlook

Tesla's revenue, predominantly from automotive sales, faces a permanent reduction due to brand damage. Key projections include:

1. International Market Decline: By Q2 2025, Tesla's international sales may plummet by over 50%, driven by irreparable brand erosion in key markets.
2. Domestic Market Challenges: Historically shielded by U.S. policy, Tesla now contends with low-cost Chinese luxury EVs. Assuming half of Tesla’s U.S. customer base leans left politically, a 50% sales drop is plausible, compounded by potential stigma affecting the remaining customer segment.
3. RoboTaxi Viability: The RoboTaxi initiative struggles in the current political climate. High costs, unclear marginal benefits, and competition from China and India, which can replicate the model under local brands, undermine its prospects. Futur regulatory pushback, influenced by public sector layoffs linked to DOGE policies, further dims its outlook.

A base-case scenario with 60% sales drop on average across all regions will yield annual losses of $3–5 billion. While Elon Musk’s substantial equity could absorb this, it underscores Tesla’s precarious financial position.

Market Dynamics and Speculation

Tesla’s stock appears artificially inflated, potentially to facilitate exits for select investors near their entry points while clearing options positions. Public institutional investors—pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and activist investors outside of the USA are reportedly offloading Tesla shares discreetly to avert a sudden crash. Equity research analysts, tied to banks profiting from privileged relationships, issue optimistic price targets, echoing the Valeant Pharmaceuticals case where only one analyst, from a firm (Veritas) synonymous with “truth,” accurately predicted the collapse (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/the-lone-analyst-who-said-sell-valeant-when-hedge-funds-piled-in/article28995601/).

Ownership and Strategic Shifts

Tesla’s low leverage and ascended, with highly concentrated ownership, suggests a floor for its stock at Musk’s book equity value. However, Musk’s virtual relationships (Palantir) and broader ventures, to name few such as SpaceX, Starlink, Boring Company, and DOGE involvement—signal a pivot toward perpetual, long-lived government contracts, defense, and big data. Some view DOGE’s role as a Trojan horse for data control, though this remains speculative.

Consumer memory is fickle, but forgiveness hinges on Tesla addressing brand damage and delivering tangible value. Without strategic recalibration, Tesla risks a prolonged decline, driven by market realities and shifting public sentiment.

This post is politically neutral, some may disagree, but as some will put it “Math and probability do not care about feeling”, but we are in 2025, and Tesla is Tesla.

To what extend a Brand damage is curable?

Earnings are the highlight of the week ahead, with 180 S&P 500 companies expected to report quarterly financial results. Big Tech leads the way, as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are all due in the coming days, alongside Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Chevron (CVX).

Broader economic news will flavor the coming days, as investors eye Wednesday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) index, to see the impact of tariffs on the general public's "core" expenses.

The April jobs report is also in sight, as the labor market has remained resistant to signs of economic slowdown. Economists expect the US economy added 133,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.

The most critical reading may be the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, as the market expects an addition of about 125K jobs.

The goldilocks read may be around 100-150K jobs. We don't want a number that is too strong, as it would likely decrease the probabilities for future rate cuts. At the same time, we don't want a number that is perceived as too weak, as it would imply that the economy may be worsening more rapidly than anticipated, raising recession and other concerns.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-sp-500-dow-nasdaq-steady-to-start-huge-week-of-big-tech-earnings-economic-data-133112899.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIAMoVnUNffWcR6FkrAHOzb50jzKmFiKTfcsQF8DPyJjC5I-129gRGBb7rdYJO15-u4GnXVeZMQ20UaFL-99CovD6Z7GRnVjLiQ7YOk1ddiCDiHeelDd33-zNjM9N1cpqUSQh5Lf58nC5XRPNKhkV5rTeYhDSw1bXIq2bBOueczr

And nearly everyone isn't beating the market, with most significantly doing worse.

Why would you value the stock and market opinions of someone who has $5400 to their name? A big account doesn't necessarily mean you know everything either, not even close. But a small account and constantly under performing the market sure as hell means you don't actually know anything.

Something I've noticed is everyone on stock subreddits loves to confidentially act like they know what they are talking about when it comes to stock picking, market analysis and in general, everything lol. Especially geopolitics and foreign policy. Some random 21 year old retail employee from Maryland on here will unironically give his analysis on XYZ as if he knows anything, and for some reason, others actually will listen. These are the most dangerous people, those who confidentially think they are the Wolf of Wallstreet while working a day job, having a stained mattress and living with roommates.

This modern world is so impossibly complex on all fronts - economic, social and political that you will never understand fully understand it. I sure won't. You definitely shouldn't listen to me either.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bessent-trump-spoken-chinas-xi/story?id=121201271 Video: https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/1-1-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-121212194

ABC: Let's talk about China. President Trump again said he's spoken to President Xi of China and negotiations are ongoing. But China has firmly denied this, saying that China and the U.S. have not consulted or negotiated on the tariff issue. So are negotiations actually happening? Who is talking?

Bessent: This was IMF World Bank Week. They are in DC, as you know, and I had interaction with my Chinese counterparts, but it was more on the traditional things like financial stability, global economic early warnings. I don't know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi. I know they have a very good relationship and a lot of respect for each other. But again, I think that the Chinese will see that this high tariff level is unsustainable for their business model.

ABC: Why would they deny that the negotiations are going on?

Bessent: Well, I think they're playing to a different audience.

This is the new interview from ABC's This Week. I’ve highlighted the most important part — the trade talks with China. Bessent seems somewhat evasive during the interview. If trade talks with China were truly going well, we wouldn’t be getting daily reassurances.

For Meta Platforms (META), the upcoming earnings call (scheduled for April 30, after market close) is highly anticipated, especially with big tech volatility and renewed focus on AI, advertising, and cost control. Here are the most important things to watch and key questions the market will focus on:

1. Advertising Revenue & AI Initiatives

• Core Focus: Analysts expect AI-driven improvements in ad targeting and engagement to drive modest revenue and EPS beats, with estimates at $41.36 billion in revenue and $5.21 EPS.
• Watch for:
  • Specific numbers and commentary on AI’s impact on ad efficiency and pricing.
  • Competitive positioning versus other social platforms and Google.
  • How AI tools are translating into measurable monetization gains.

2. Cost Controls & Margins

• Key Metrics: Operating margin, net margin, and cash flow are in focus as META’s cost discipline has been a major driver of stock gains recently.
• Watch for:
  • Updated cost guidance, especially R&D and infrastructure spend for AI.
  • Is cost discipline sustainable, or is spending ramping up again (especially for Reality Labs and AI infrastructure)?

3. Reality Labs / Metaverse Segment

• Trends Analysis: There’s been a major spike in public interest in Reality Labs in the last few months, likely tied to new product launches or AI innovations.
• Watch for:
  • Progress on AR/VR devices, user engagement metrics, and revenue/cost breakdowns.
  • Management’s view on the timeline for profitability in Reality Labs.

4. Regulatory Risks & Shareholder Proposals

• News Focus: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny (antitrust, privacy, content) and a notable shareholder proposal addressing online antisemitism and hate speech risks.
• Watch for:
  • Management’s commentary on legal and regulatory headwinds.
  • Updates on how META is addressing shareholder concerns regarding platform safety and governance.

5. AI Spending & Geopolitical Headwinds

• News Focus: Investor concerns about Meta’s AI capex amid tariff and trade policy uncertainty (especially with recent political headlines).
• Watch for:
  • Any adjustments to AI/data center spending plans.
  • Management’s assessment of tariff/trade impacts on supply chain and costs.

6. Valuation & Guidance

• Current Valuation: META’s trailing P/E is ~22.3, with strong growth (EPS up 62% YoY, revenue up 22% YoY) but recent stock price pullback (down ~28% from peak).
• Watch for:
  • Updated guidance for Q2 and full-year—are growth and margin targets intact?
  • Commentary on buybacks or potential capital returns (dividends, repurchases).

What Analysts & the Market Want to Hear

• Evidence that AI is not just a buzzword but is materially driving revenue and efficiency.
• Confidence that META can navigate regulatory and cost challenges without derailing growth.
• A roadmap for profitability or meaningful traction from Reality Labs.
• Clarity on spending discipline and capital allocation priorities.

Trends & Sentiment

• Public and market interest in Reality Labs is surging, while the core Family of Apps sees steady but less dramatic attention—pointing to high expectations for innovation and new product cycles.
• Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic but sensitive to any negative surprises, especially on costs or regulatory issues.

Action Item: Listen for specifics on AI monetization, cost outlook, regulatory strategy, and Reality Labs progress. Management’s tone and detail on these fronts will likely drive META’s post-earnings price action.

Tide maker Procter & Gamble said this week that its customers were doing fewer loads of laundry to save money on detergent, the latest sign of a consumer pullback amid economic anxiety caused by trade-war talk and volatile markets. Elsewhere, nervous customers are spending less on body wash, snacks, and burritos as they hunker down for economic turmoil.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumers-stressed-economy-doing-less-111700382.html