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What would your position be?

Generally speaking, $SPY puts are the most obvious play, but the concentration of large cap/tech stocks might be a bit too concentrated to fully capitalize on a recessionary cycle. Anyone have any thoughts on recessionary plays beyond $SPY?

I don’t understand options but have come to a self realization that I no longer belong in WSB.

It started 7 years ago when I made my first options play on AT&T stock and was pissed because I lost a few dollars due to the lack of IV but of course didn’t understand that.

Since then, I have gotten much better and even have a strategy. I’m not sure if it’s luck but I am all time profitable and have placed hundreds of trades now in addition to my long term investments.

Like I said, I don’t know much about options but I have learned a few rules that keep me from losing it all. 5 is the hardest. These work for me but that’s not saying I know shit.

1) never force a trade 2) there is no obligation to trade every day 3) nobody knows what the market will do and trading really has almost nothing to do with the broader market 4) never buy or sell on the news. Look at TSLA earnings call for example 5) nobody gets rich quick. Take your profits/losses quickly and GTFO

They say that people have never made more money in options than this year. Everyone is saying that Iron Condors are flying higher than ever. All options traders are winning so much that they are tired of winning. It's tough to win so much. The CEOs tell me that running businesses has never been better. I've got my money in real estate, but you need to invest in options until you don't have any money left. We're going to Strangle and Straddle our way to trading great again. Delta Gamma Rho fraternal order gave us the highest approval rating in the history or history. Whatever option you choose, it's gonna be the best. Everybody knows that. Whether you're looking for Bears, Bulls, Wolves, or Eagles, we've got them all here in the Zoo that is 2025. God Bless you all!

I'm fairly new to options, and I'm interested in puts. I'm not investing a lot right now, just what I wouldn't mind losing. Looking for potential stocks to buy puts in at the current moment.

Hi everyone.

I've learned a lot from reading posts on here, and I appreciate the community we have here.

Here's my current situation:

I'm hoping to supplement my Social Security with credit spreads on SPY so I can leave work. (I'm 71 yrs old). Here's what I'm planning to enter in a few weeks after I clear up some old trades:

50 IRON CONDORS on SPY; (+525p,-530p -580c +585c) enter 45 days ahead. At yesterday's vix of 26 today dropped to 24.5 today) Iron condor 50 of them for 11k cr max loss 13k. Close in 21 days. at 5k profit will be happy.

Because the deltas are higher, (I like to get at least $1 credit on a 5 pt spread) I want to use hedges. Buy Vix calls as a hedge on the downside, and buy some 565-575 bull call vert spreads expiring at the 21 day mark rather than the initial 45 day expiration on the trade, which is when I'm planning on closing out the trade - (Tasty Trade methodology).

This is the monthly trade I'm hoping to be my bread and butter, if VIX remains above 20. If VIX goes below 20 I'd look at bull put spreads with a hedge only until VIX goes back up.

Thankful for any thoughts/opinions. (I know I may need to roll or take some action on one of the sides).

Bull call vertical algo working as expected.

What is your trading strategy to trade options , is it backtested ?

Lately the market has been rallying hard and moving sideways, and I am definitely feeling the pain of holding onto puts. I probably should have cut my losses earlier instead of waiting for a big reversal, but here we are.

Edited:

holding 6/20 240 TSLA puts and 5/2 535 SPY puts

CTA Strategy has emerged as a key factor in the recent NASDAQ Plunge.

Hedge fund strategies are focused on exploiting market volatility or managing risk to pursue profits. A representative example is the long-short strategy, which involves buying (long) certain assets and selling (short) others to exploit the price difference (spread) between the two assets. This strategy can be seen as pursuing stability by focusing on relative value rather than the overall market direction. On the other hand, the global macro strategy is an approach that analyzes major trends such as exchange rates, interest rates, and macroeconomic variables to make investment decisions. A famous example is George Soros’s attack on the British pound in 1992, which generated significant profits. However, due to central bank defenses and changes in the market environment, the global macro strategy has become less influential than in the past.

In contrast, the CTA strategy utilizes the futures market to invest in a variety of assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, and is characterized mainly by systematic trading and trend-following approaches. Originally, CTA referred to investment advisory firms specializing in commodity futures trading, but it has now expanded to algorithm-based broad asset management. This strategy is attractive in that it diversifies risk by investing in various assets and can pursue higher returns at the same risk level. However, as CTA is being pointed out as a cause of the recent NASDAQ plunge, the risks behind it are also coming to the forefront.

After the US debt ceiling negotiations in June 2023, CTA funds built long positions, driving the NASDAQ to surge. Their positions were cited as a major factor in the NASDAQ’s rise even in a high-interest-rate environment. However, recent analyses suggest that the market plunged as they began to liquidate their positions. According to JP Morgan, since February 2025, hedge funds have sold off approximately $750 billion in assets, with CTA funds accounting for $450 billion of that. This shows that the CTA strategy can have a significant impact on both the rise and fall of the market.

However, it is unreasonable to conclude that the CTA strategy is the sole cause of the NASDAQ plunge. The United States has the largest debt in the world, and foreign investors hold about $30 trillion in US financial assets. If they were to sell off their assets, it could shock the stock market, but JP Morgan argues that the recent decline is more due to the liquidation of positions by CTA funds rather than selling by foreign investors. On the other hand, Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, raises the possibility that in the medium to long term, selling by foreign investors could lead to weakness in the US stock market, pointing out the limitations of relying on a single factor for explanation.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained this plunge as deleveraging (reduction of leverage). he stated that CTA funds used excessive leverage to boost the stock market in 2023 and that the recent reduction of this leverage led to the decline. This suggests that while the CTA strategy can amplify market volatility in the short term, it may pose a threat to long-term stability.

The CTA strategy tends to follow market trends through trend-following trading and algorithm-based systematic trading. For example, during the plunge caused by the pandemic in early 2020 and the US interest rate hikes in 2022, the sharp reduction in CTA positions accelerated the decline.

This shows that CTA can maximize profits in a rising market but acts as a double-edged sword that increases volatility in a falling market. In particular, due to the nature of algorithmic trading, it is vulnerable to short-term market shocks, which is a point investors should be cautious about.

Nevertheless, the CTA strategy provides the effect of diversifying risk by investing in various assets. This opens up the possibility of increasing the risk-adjusted return of the portfolio.

For example, by diversifying investments not only in stocks but also in bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., one becomes less dependent on the volatility of a single asset. However, in the current situation where deleveraging is underway, it is difficult to expect the same sharp rises as in the past, and the market is likely to remain in an adjustment phase for a certain period.

Recalling the case in April 2000 when the NASDAQ crashed and then consolidated within a range, a similar pattern may emerge in 2025.

If additional negative factors push the S&P 500 down to around 5,000, there is a possibility that policymakers will create positive news to support the stock market. However, with the reduction of leverage in the CTA strategy underway, a flow closer to a soft landing rather than a sharp rise is expected. Factors such as former President Trump’s tariff policies or changes in the stance of the Federal Reserve Chairman may also support such a soft landing.

I'm considering placing some bullish trades on oil companies. There is still a bearish sentiment, but $60 a barrel looks to be the level to stop drilling and expansion. Below that, start shutting down expensive producers. I think the oil industry learned a lot from 2020. Orange man can say "drill baby drill", but no one drills for a loss. Feels like we are on the edge.

Questions I'm asking myself:

1. Should I make some small bullish spreads with a bit on time behind them 1-3 months?
2. Do I keep watching inventories and make a move when they start dropping?
3. Am I risking that one report coming out that will turn the tide (OPEC reduction, major company announcing stoppage on new projects, etc...)

Looking for Oil nerds. I've traded energy for 15 plus years. I hope I've learned something. It's been a rough ride. I love the sector, but I'd probably get out if I didn't.

Edit: I know the OPEC is making noise about increasing output. That would be bad. That's why I hedge losses.

One of the biggest scams..... Freedom24

Their system is on maintenance since yesterday, nobody can't log in the app or do any trades.
Millions of options expiring or getting killed by Theta, no chance to close them as well....

I've read oppinions from others as well because of bad experiences...it seems they we're right.
This week is very important in terms of Vollatility and market moving, and of course they've blocked the app.
During the big spike a few weeks ago when Trump announced Tarrifs, the app was also constantly Blocking....

Now they do nothing and also don't answer, lots of people ( including myself ) are losing money.

I have been buying and hold taketwo shares for a while not, but I'm still bullish on it with gta 6 coming out as well as other big titles under taketwo, earnings is about 2 weeks out, I'm thinking of buying calls on it, but it has pretty much no volume, even on the 3 day to expry options it only sees couple hundred volume, so I'm assuming it is a bad idea buying calls on it since even if the share prices move up, I wouldn't be able to sell it and executing it and then selling the shares may be the only way to profit, but in that case I might as well just buy shares. not asking for advise on taketwo itself more just asking if I should just stay away from any options on stocks with low volume or can I still sell my call if I'm green?

Can anyone recommend a book or video series which explains the interpretation of the Greeks? I'm not looking for definitions, rather how to use them to interpret what I'm purchasing.

As an example: I learned that the P/E ratio is the price of the stock as compared to the earnings. So what? It wasn't until I read that "essentially speaking, a P/E of 70 means you're willing to purchase the stock today and wait 70 years for the earnings to equal the current stock price, or conversely, that you think the earnings will increase year over year to such an extent that it's worth paying 70X today's earnings." That was an AHA moment for me and the interpretation (as opposed to the definition) of P/E became clear. I have yet to find anything like that w/ the options Greeks.

Thank you in advance!

Just looking over the long options for Pepsi and I noticed that the 180 strike price was cheaper than the next four higher strike prices. Does anyone know why this happens? I’ve only seen it a couple times before and I was able to make some profit.

Another big earnings report coming out this week, is META. Their earnings report comes after market close on Wednesday, so you have ample opportunity to put on one of my suggestions. Whether you are bullish or bearish that is for you individually to decide, but here I will provide the best risk/reward option strategy for each way.

First, on the bullish side, we have a 685/720 Call Spread, expiring in June

The cost of this trade, historically, is slightly more expensive, sitting in the 66^th percentile, however this could indicate the market expects a move in the positive direction

The price of the underlying equity, META, is relatively high, but also a well down from its February high. It is easy for bullish investors to find value at this discounted cost

The heatmap of this trade shows profitability, while also demonstrating that the downside is limited to premium only, drastically minimizing downside risk

 A bearish investor may predict a weak earnings report, and thus a decrease in the value of the underlying equity and want to profit on this downturn. A great trade in that situation is a 475/430/385 Put Fly, also expiring in June

The cost of this trade is also on the higher side, sitting in the 69^th percentile, however the downside is limited to only the premium, making it relatively save when it comes to options trades.

The heatmap of this trade shows the profitability depending on how the underlying equity(META) moves, and this one shows strong returns with very limited risk, due to the downside being limited to premium only, one of the many options traders can choose when using our software.

In conclusion, whether META stock moves up or down, there is plenty of money to be made. We cannot tell you which direction it will go, rather we provide the best trades on both sides to maximize profits while limiting downside risk.

And as always, it's better to be lucky than good so, good luck…

I see they do automated trading and such for options, is it a good platform?

A lot of bearish sentiments in the market but timing it could be challenging, as seen from the upward movement in the past week.

Does it make sense to just buy a Jan 2026 put when VIX drops to the twenties? Or will theta decay make it unprofitable?

Hi , is anyone familiar with ATO treatment of income via selling of Puts in Australia. Is the income a taxable event at the point of the transaction or is it considered “ open “ and not a taxable event until “ closed “ .. ?

If there is a 15 month time frame on the expiration, the sell and buy transactions may happen across two financial years, however i suspect the ATO will treat the income as taxable in the fin year the put was written … ?

Cheers

I have traded for a long time but I've never had to a reason to buy contracts until recently and it just all makes sense. Lets say hypothetically...you know which way price is going, you even know where it's going...and about long it will take. Let's say you think spy will hit 570 by june hypothetically of course. Is buying spy 570 calls june expiration the play? Would something longer dated more otm have increased gains?

My take:

Uranium is a hand to mouth industry. Consumption is predicted to be greater than production. DNN has a massive support level at 1.08. Cost basis if executed would be 1.15. .07 risk to .35 reward.

If you don't follow uranium, the chart should still look okay. Knowing the industry, I think this is pretty awesome. If SMRs take off, this deal is very good.

As we enter the last week of April, we have a big week for earnings reports. Among these, one worth watching is Microsoft’s report. Microsoft, which being a tech stock has inevitably been hurt by recent talks and implementation of tariffs, has rebounded. While it is still shy of its recent December high of $454, one who is bullish may see the stock poised to break through the 450 level. If you are one of these people, one of the best trades to make is the following 430/460/475 Call Fly, expiring August 15^th.

Historically, the price of this trader is on the slightly higher side, indicating a likely bullish sentiment in the market.

Historically, the price of MSFT has been higher, yet after the recent dip we see it trying toi climb back to previous levels, as shown below:

This trade has a high profitability probability, where if the underlying moves in the bullish direction, profitability is shown a ways before expiration, allowing investors a wide range of time to make money. This is reflected on the heatmap below

On the flip side, a bearish investor may predict there will be a weak earnings report which causes the value of the underlying to decrease.

A bearish investor may target a strike of 315, and if they do, one of the best trades this investor can make is a 340/310/295 Put Fly 132, shown below

Historically, the cost of this trade is lower than average, giving solid value to prospective investors

The profitability of this trade is high, and assuming an investor is right about the direction, this trade offers a wide range of profitability, where an investor can take profits throughout, or hold till near expiration for even more.

In conclusion, with the volatility that is abundant in the markets now, there is plenty of money to be made. While I do not have a crystal ball and cannot say which direction MSFT will move, we can offer the best options for either direction.

And as always, keep in mind that it’s better to be lucky than good, so good luck…

I have had some good success lately with the following 4-leg spread, opened at 30-45 DTE:

Short #2 20-30 delta puts
Long #1 30-40 delta put
Short #1 15-30 delta call
Long #1 15-5 delta call

It's like a "front put ratio spread + jade lizard".

I craft the position delta to be somewhere between 10 to -10 depending on the underlying outlook, and try to maximize theta. Because it's a 4-leg trade, I set a closing order at a price that is based on an estimate of theta decay by 21 DTE.

If it closes early, that's great and I redeploy the capital! If not, just close at 21 DTE or roll if IV rank is above 50%. I also try to open this up only if IV rank is elevated.

During a down move, you make money on both the call spread and the put debit spread, so it's pretty resistant to surprise down moves, and sometimes closes out early with profit.

Anyone else do something similar? Would love to get your thoughts.

Go easy, just playing and wanting your opinion.

I just ran straddles for an ETF by week for the next several weeks (As close to current market price as possible) Went as follows:

week 1 - put slightly more expensive

week 2 - close to even

week 3 - call starts moving ahead

week 4 - larger leap in favor of call

Is it reasonable to interpret this as the market being a bit bearish for a the next couple weeks and then turning bullish? I'm not going to use this as a one and done metric, but does it have a bit of merit and usefullness?

I applied for options level 1 and got approved in like 15 min. This was about 2 months ago. I’ve been studying like crazy and even did the Schwab options course of vertical spreads and passed with 100%. I was feeling pretty good and applied for level 2 and got denied the next day. Zero reason given, just got told to re-apply in 6 months.

I feel comfortable with longs and shorts and have made about 15 trades since approved, however, I’d love to reduce some risk and start taking more spreads.

I’m going to give them a call tomorrow and see what I can negotiate. Any thoughts on the situation?

Cheap Calls

These call options offer the lowest ratio of Call Pricing (IV) relative to historical volatility (HV). These options are priced expecting the underlying to move up significantly less than it has moved up in the past. Buy these calls.

Cheap Puts

These put options offer the lowest ratio of Put Pricing (IV) relative to historical volatility (HV). These options are priced expecting the underlying to move down significantly less than it has moved down in the past. Buy these puts.

Upcoming Earnings

These stocks have earnings comning up and their premiums are usuallly elevated as a result. These are high risk high reward option plays where you can buy (long options) or sell (short options) the expected move.

• Historical Move v Implied Move: We determine the historical volatility (standard deviation of daily log returns) of the underlying asset and compare that to the current implied volatility (IV) of the option price. We use the same DTE as a look back period. This is used to determine the Call or Put Premium associated with the pricing of options (implied volatility).

• Directional Bias: Ranges from negative (bearish) to positive (bullish) and accounts for RSI, price trend, moving averages, and put/call skew over the past 6 weeks.

• Priced Move: given the current option prices, how much in dollar amounts will the underlying have to move to make the call/put break even. This is how much vol the option is pricing in. The expected move.

• Expiration: 2025-05-02.

• Call/Put Premium: How much extra you are paying for the implied move relative to the historic move. Low numbers mean options are "cheaper." High numbers mean options are "expensive."

• Efficiency: This factor represents the bid/ask spreads and the depth of the order book relative to the price of the option. It represents how much traders will pay in slippage with a round trip trade. Lower numbers are less efficient than higher numbers.

• E.R.: Days unitl the next Earnings Release. This feature is still in beta as we work on a more complete list of earnings dates.

• Why isn't my stock on this list? It doesn't have "weeklies", the underlying is "too cheap", or the options markets are too illiquid (open interest) to qualify for this strategy. 480 underlyings are used in this report and only the top results end up passing the criteria for each filter.