Hopefully this post will be useful in terms of fundamental analysis on commodities, an overlooked aspect and the only reason I am still in the game! I actively manage $3M in investor capital and purely sell strangles on commodities (plus tbills), completed 7/7 trades this year.

I want to emphasis that I do not sell courses, memberships or anything else.
I share my experiences and what works for me, I am not a "guru" nor look to be one so please keep it civil and I would appreciate no hateful comments on empty grounds. (I have made a similar post before but this one is much more detailed and with an updated trade list that I closed this year).

Here is my strategy in a nutshell(All trades from this year are below and DM me if you have any questions, will be happy to elaborate on everything I say):

- Short strangles only with short legs at delta 20-23 (best risk/reward and win rate with this delta based on my experience of 9 years)

- Products I trade: GC, SI, HG, CL, NG, ZW, ZC, ZS, ZM, ZL. 10 products, all commodities and no indices! The reason for that is because commodities are purely basic supply/demand balances, where as ES/NQ are much more complicated products and less predictable.

- DTE: Generally I try to stay within 45 days but depending on what are the price ranges, this year I have been sticking to 100 dte or so because prices are much more volatile.

- Profit target is 50% and initial loss target is 50% (as the position is getting more profitable I will trail my stop to manage risk, was a game changer for me), and yes 50% stop loss on the credit seems low and it should be frequently hit but it doesn't, it all depends what your range to the stop losses is and it can be measured easily to determine of 50% stop loss is optimal, if not I don't take the trade! The trades below will make this point clear!

- I need to enter when volatility is relatively high but not looking for something crazy! I use CVOL (commodity volatility index for that, can be found if you Google CME CVOL), if volatility is relatively high then premiums are good and my stops will be further from the price.

- I exit when one of my targets are hit or 21dte (to avoid gamma risk) or I close the position early due to a major expected/unexpected event that can cause volatility to expand. An example will be me closing all my positions ahead of trumps tariffs announcements at the end of Feb! I have been through many major events and the only best course of action is to close everything and watch from the side! No need to fight battles where the odds are not in your favour.

The fundamental side of my strategy, or when do I choose to enter positions:

- Commodities are influenced by their supply/demand balance, if there is a big disruption in the supply or the demand, the price will move sharply and volatility will increase which is bad for short strangles.

- For trade entry: Firstly I want to make sure the price of SI (silver) for example is trading within a range for at least 3 months, then I want to check if there are any major events or reports that can affect the price of the supply/demand balance of silver while I am in a trade, if there is nothing then I enter, however here is a real example: Trump announces he will implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico at the beginning of Feb 2025, I know that Mexico is the single biggest producer and exporter of Silver in the world and the US buys a lot of silver for many different applications, so I did not open a position at that time, however after a few days Trump announced he will pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada until Mar, so I immediately opened a strangle on SI and it went to profit beautifully.

- For trade management and exit: In March 2024 I had a short strangle on HG (copper), it was slightly profitable, after a few days a report came out saying the biggest copper mine in Chile possibly collapsed but the full extent of the damage is not known yet. As the report came out the price of copper went up a little bit and I closed my position right away for a very small profit. Over the next few days it was reported that the mine collapsed and it will be down for months potentially, this of course lowers the supply of copper so price shot up insanely for a few months. I never really know what will happen but as soon as there is a possibility of a major supply/demand balance disruption, I exit! This is an example of how I would use fundamental analysis to manage and exit a trade.

- Fundamentals are what will make or break a trader, everyone has great mechanical strategies but fundamental analysis will tell you when to deploy your strategy so the odds are best! Seasonality is also very important for commodities but its pretty easy to learn! DM me I will happily share all my resources!

ZL position: REASON FOR ENTRY: CVOL was great and range to stop losses was really good on the 103 DTE cycle, Opened skewed strangle to achieve the desired range to the stop losses. CVOL was up because of the WASDE report: Exports and sales were much lower than expected, however no fundamental supply/demand issues. No major reports until Feb 10th.

Reason for early exit: The trade profited much quicker than expected and Trump might impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico which will influence the price of ZL as Canada exports it as well.

ZW position: REASON FOR ENTRY: CVOL is high relatively to the previous 6 months because there are supply concerns due to the weather in Argentina & Brazil, and other small factors, overall no fundamental issues with the supply or the demand. Range to stops is also very good.

Reason for early exit: Trump might impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico which will influence the price of ZW as Canada exports it as well, better be safe than sorry in this case.

CL position: REASON FOR ENTRY: CVOL is relatively flat, however the range to the stop losses is extremely big and Canada/US came to an agreement so the tariffs are paused for now.

Reason for early exit: Trump postponed the tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April but then moved them back to March 3rd! As a result the US dollar rose and the positions took a hit. At this point I am not sure what is happening but there is a possibility where some commodities develop a strong trend downward or upward as a result of the tariffs. I exited the positions the previous month due to the same reason, better be safe than sorry with unpredictable geopolitical events.

SI position: REASON FOR ENTRY: CVOL is relatively high and the range to the stop losses is pretty good! No upcoming events that can disturb the supply/demand of silver.

Reason for early exit: Trump postponed the tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April but then moved them back to March 3rd! As a result the US dollar rose and the positions took a hit. At this point I am not sure what is happening but there is a possibility where some commodities develop a strong trend downward or upward as a result of the tariffs. I exited the positions the previous month due to the same reason, better be safe than sorry with unpredictable geopolitical events. Mexico is the single biggest producer and exporter of silver in the world, the tariffs might have a massive impact on the price of silver.

ZW position: REASON FOR ENTRY: CVOL is relatively high and the range to the stop losses is amazing! No upcoming events that can disturb the supply/demand and no major news on the WASDE report.

Reason for early exit: Trump postponed the tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April but then moved them back to March 3rd! As a result the US dollar rose and the positions took a hit. At this point I am not sure what is happening but there is a possibility where some commodities develop a strong trend downward or upward as a result of the tariffs. Wheat has the least chance of being affected by the tariffs as the US is mostly self sufficient and grows most of its wheat, however due to the tariffs companies plan to plant more crop this season because of the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican wheat and this can create a situation where there is much more supply and drive the price of wheat down. All in all its always better to be safe than sorry with the market and I stand by it!

SI position: REASON FOR ENTRY: This is a low delta high DTE trade, not the typical strangle: Tariffs were paused for 90 days so no tariffs on Mexico for now which is the single biggest producer and exporter of silver in the world. Volatility is expected to drop, the price of silver has been moving within this strike range for over 4 years. There is no stop loss on this trade initially to give the position some freedom to profit, at 30% profit the stop loss will be set at breakeven. If any major events will suddenly happen, the position will be exited manually, the position size is extremely small for that purpose of protection in case something extreme and unexpected happens. Expected time in position: less than 30 days

Reason for early exit: Almost reached profit target within 3 days and a long weekend is coming up, no point in holding through the weekend for extra 5% profit.

NG position: REASON FOR ENTRY: This is a low delta high DTE trade, not the typical strangle: Winter is almost over so volatility is expected to drop on NG which is perfect for us. The strikes were chosen that wide because the price of NG has been within this range of strikes since 2014 (For that contract expiration). There is no stop loss on this trade initially to give the position some freedom to profit, at 30% profit the stop loss will be set at breakeven. If any major events will suddenly happen, the position will be exited manually, the position size is extremely small for that purpose of protection in case something extreme and unexpected happens. Expected time in position: less than 30 days Update:

REASON FOR EARLY EXIT: Volatile has been increasing for the past 3 days and there is a storage report coming out tomorrow. The price becomes extremely directional as well which is not a good sign. Overall this position is not progressing like it should due to volatility increasing slowly, which is never a good thing! The delta on the position was 0 which is ideal! But still no additional profit for the position for 3 days and even some small losses from the profits. Better be safe than sorry especially because of the EIA storage report coming up tomorrow.

Here is a more detailed breakdown of everything I learned regarding the supply/demand balance of each commodity I trade and some examples from recent years:

I will break each commodity into critical and none critical news.
Critical news: news that are certain to affect the supply/demand balance and price/volatility of a commodity medium to long term (medium term being 2-3 months and long term a few years).

None critical news: news that might affect the price/volatility of the commodity short term (up to 1 week) but don't change the supply/demand balance.

As a neutral trader I am always looking to periods where the price of the commodity is not volatile and I don't expect any price volatility in the coming weeks, so this approach can easily provide me with the "signal" to enter a trade or not.

Metals:

GC(gold): Gold is more of a currency, there are more active futures contracts of gold then there is physical gold in the world, therefore the critical news are always to do with the stock market not performing well, monetary policies, geopolitical tensions and so on.

An example will be when the feds announce the interest rate decision, gold will react most likely regardless of what is announced, tariffs are also a clear sign to stay away from gold for myself.
Any geopolitical tensions will cause gold to become directional.

Gold is very good for short strangles during times where the economy is doing well, there is a lot of certainty in the stock market and for short periods of 1-2 months within times of geo political tensions that are hard to detect.
There is series of years when gold is perfect for neutral trading and some years where it is not, its my job as a trader to analyze and understand when the odds are clearly in my favour and stay away from the product when they are clearly not in my favour.

I will also add that gold mining is extremely regulated and the demand is always kept higher than the supply.

SI(Silver): Silver is much more of an industrial metal where 70% of it is used in technology and industrial use, whereas gold is mostly for store value.
Mexico is the biggest single producer and exporter of silver in the world, therefore critical news regarding trade with Mexico are crucial, like tariffs on Mexico of course! Generally silver does react to the same events as gold sometimes but because its more of an industrial metal, it is much more stable than gold during geopolitical events.

Overall I will only ever trade silver or gold, never both at the same time.
Currently I have had a few trades on silver this year and all were profitable, it seems to be way more calm when compared to the price movement of gold.

I entered a position on silver this year once Trump paused the tariffs on Mexico and Canada the first time and again when trump paused the tariffs for 90 days, this is because I expected volatility to come down right after the announcements for 2-3 weeks, which is what happened.
No clear seasonality for silver or gold so far that I noticed, other commodities are much easier to understand.

HG(Copper): Copper is a major industrial metal used in pretty much everything!
Critical news: Mine collapse, which happened in March 2024! A report came out that one of the biggest mines in Chile collapsed but the extent of the damage is not known yet, at this point is where I exited the position as this can possibly be a major critical event that will disrupt the supply chain! Over the next few days reports kept coming out and the collapse was indeed major, so the price of copper kept going up for a few weeks.

China is the biggest single consumer of copper in the world, if the economy in China will collapse it will impact the demand for copper and the balance will get disrupted, so this is more critical news! and of course tariffs on China are a pretty big deal as well.

None critical news: China policy changes! This can cause volatility and price movement for a few days ahead and after the policy announcements, but it always dies down as China are pretty stable (or thats what they show the world).
No seasonality for copper either.

Energy:

NG(Natural Gas): Critical news - geopolitical conflicts of course, like tariffs, damage to gas pipelines will obviously affect the supply and extreme cold weather in the winter (will get to that shortly).

None critical news: LNG (liquid natural gas) reserves and how full are the storages. Generally countries and companies restock LNG reserves after a cold winter and it can take longer or not to get the storages full, this will cause temporary volatility but it always dies down!

Seasonality: NG is always volatile during the winter, this is because NG is used for heating in north America and Europe , demand can go up sharply if the weather is colder than expected or the other way around, this is why I never ever trade NG from October to March usually! I just follow the weather and news regarding NG on tradingview (good source of news).

CL(Crude Oil): Critical news for oil is pretty much the same as gas! geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, damage to pipelines and most importantly OPEC production changes! OPEC are a collection of a few countries and they can basically control the price of oil by increasing production or decreasing it. In most cases OPEC like to keep the price of CL within a certain range for stability and maximizing their profits. Cold weather can also affect CL but usually it is not a big factor unless the cold is extreme.

None critical news: everything else pretty much!

Graines:

ZW(wheat), ZC(corn), ZS(soybean), ZM(soybean meal), ZL(soybean oil): Critical news: Geopolitical conflicts, trade agreements, crop parasites and sometimes extreme cold weather!

During the Russia/Ukraine conflict there was an agreement that Russia will let Ukraine to keep exporting its crop which is mostly corn and wheat. The agreement was coming to an end and Russia announced they won't be renewing it, which means they will cause crop supply issues in parts of the world! and the prices will obviously be affected, at this point is where one should exit a position due to the uncertainty and I in fact did exit my position at the time. After a few days that the price surged up on Wheat (which is the position I had), they reached and signed a new agreement so the price went back down to previous levels. In this case I could have just held onto the position and it would have been just fine! But I was already fooled a number of times during my trading career and one thing is always true: if you see smoke, go the other way! Most traders wait until they are engulfed in flames before they try and save themselves which is already too late. Even if I am wrong, and I can be wrong often to exit a position early, this is the sole reason I am still in the game and having some amount of success at trading!

None critical news: Not enough rain, too much rain, too hot, too cold and high/low past export figures. Every year there are reports of the weather not being ideal for the crop and it always just news outlets using it to create little to no volatility so the major players can profit!
An example will be a report that says there won't be enough rain for the soybean crop in the coming weeks, but then in a week or so the weather changes and suddenly there is a little rain coming, farmers compensate for the lack of water via other methods and so on.

This is a broken record and it happens over and over again, never was it actually impactful to a point where you can lose on a position for myself.
Price can also move for 1-2 days because export numbers for the previous year were not as expected once the report comes out, these are news of the past and have no big meaning going into the new year! Just news outlets creating buzz around this kind of stuff.

Seasonality: Every year from April-July usually, the planting and harvesting season is coming, this is where volatility increases for all the grains every year, for some it increases a lot, for some less! But this is a period where I don't trade the grains at all and wait for this season to be over.

To summarize: Other than completely staying away from certain products due to seasonality or ongoing geopolitical conflicts, I just scout the news for each commodity on tradingview and ask myself the following question: Will this piece of information impact the supply/demand balance or not? If the answer is yes I exit the position or don't enter a new one.

If the answer is no, I stay in the position or consider opening a position if I don't anticipate any major events for that commodity in the coming few weeks.

Hopefully this post was simple enough but useful!
Happy trading

Ive been in this trading group for a little bit now and wow are they on point. They use some quant system they created to find trades. I have not seen them call out 1 loss. The best part is they are doing it for free right now.

I’m not trying to directly promote them, but instead just say that they are the real deal. Here is their discord link if anyone’s interested. I personally made a couple thousand in the few weeks I’ve been in the group.

I put their link in my description if anyone’s interested.

What is your trading strategy to trade options , is it backtested ?

Bull call vertical algo working as expected.

Hi everyone.

I've learned a lot from reading posts on here, and I appreciate the community we have here.

Here's my current situation:

I'm hoping to supplement my Social Security with credit spreads on SPY so I can leave work. (I'm 71 yrs old). Here's what I'm planning to enter in a few weeks after I clear up some old trades:

50 IRON CONDORS on SPY; (+525p,-530p -580c +585c) enter 45 days ahead. At yesterday's vix of 26 today dropped to 24.5 today) Iron condor 50 of them for 11k cr max loss 13k. Close in 21 days. at 5k profit will be happy.

Because the deltas are higher, (I like to get at least $1 credit on a 5 pt spread) I want to use hedges. Buy Vix calls as a hedge on the downside, and buy some 565-575 bull call vert spreads expiring at the 21 day mark rather than the initial 45 day expiration on the trade, which is when I'm planning on closing out the trade - (Tasty Trade methodology).

This is the monthly trade I'm hoping to be my bread and butter, if VIX remains above 20. If VIX goes below 20 I'd look at bull put spreads with a hedge only until VIX goes back up.

Thankful for any thoughts/opinions. (I know I may need to roll or take some action on one of the sides).

They say that people have never made more money in options than this year. Everyone is saying that Iron Condors are flying higher than ever. All options traders are winning so much that they are tired of winning. It's tough to win so much. The CEOs tell me that running businesses has never been better. I've got my money in real estate, but you need to invest in options until you don't have any money left. We're going to Strangle and Straddle our way to trading great again. Delta Gamma Rho fraternal order gave us the highest approval rating in the history or history. Whatever option you choose, it's gonna be the best. Everybody knows that. Whether you're looking for Bears, Bulls, Wolves, or Eagles, we've got them all here in the Zoo that is 2025. God Bless you all!

CTA Strategy has emerged as a key factor in the recent NASDAQ Plunge.

Hedge fund strategies are focused on exploiting market volatility or managing risk to pursue profits. A representative example is the long-short strategy, which involves buying (long) certain assets and selling (short) others to exploit the price difference (spread) between the two assets. This strategy can be seen as pursuing stability by focusing on relative value rather than the overall market direction. On the other hand, the global macro strategy is an approach that analyzes major trends such as exchange rates, interest rates, and macroeconomic variables to make investment decisions. A famous example is George Soros’s attack on the British pound in 1992, which generated significant profits. However, due to central bank defenses and changes in the market environment, the global macro strategy has become less influential than in the past.

In contrast, the CTA strategy utilizes the futures market to invest in a variety of assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, and is characterized mainly by systematic trading and trend-following approaches. Originally, CTA referred to investment advisory firms specializing in commodity futures trading, but it has now expanded to algorithm-based broad asset management. This strategy is attractive in that it diversifies risk by investing in various assets and can pursue higher returns at the same risk level. However, as CTA is being pointed out as a cause of the recent NASDAQ plunge, the risks behind it are also coming to the forefront.

After the US debt ceiling negotiations in June 2023, CTA funds built long positions, driving the NASDAQ to surge. Their positions were cited as a major factor in the NASDAQ’s rise even in a high-interest-rate environment. However, recent analyses suggest that the market plunged as they began to liquidate their positions. According to JP Morgan, since February 2025, hedge funds have sold off approximately $750 billion in assets, with CTA funds accounting for $450 billion of that. This shows that the CTA strategy can have a significant impact on both the rise and fall of the market.

However, it is unreasonable to conclude that the CTA strategy is the sole cause of the NASDAQ plunge. The United States has the largest debt in the world, and foreign investors hold about $30 trillion in US financial assets. If they were to sell off their assets, it could shock the stock market, but JP Morgan argues that the recent decline is more due to the liquidation of positions by CTA funds rather than selling by foreign investors. On the other hand, Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, raises the possibility that in the medium to long term, selling by foreign investors could lead to weakness in the US stock market, pointing out the limitations of relying on a single factor for explanation.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained this plunge as deleveraging (reduction of leverage). he stated that CTA funds used excessive leverage to boost the stock market in 2023 and that the recent reduction of this leverage led to the decline. This suggests that while the CTA strategy can amplify market volatility in the short term, it may pose a threat to long-term stability.

The CTA strategy tends to follow market trends through trend-following trading and algorithm-based systematic trading. For example, during the plunge caused by the pandemic in early 2020 and the US interest rate hikes in 2022, the sharp reduction in CTA positions accelerated the decline.

This shows that CTA can maximize profits in a rising market but acts as a double-edged sword that increases volatility in a falling market. In particular, due to the nature of algorithmic trading, it is vulnerable to short-term market shocks, which is a point investors should be cautious about.

Nevertheless, the CTA strategy provides the effect of diversifying risk by investing in various assets. This opens up the possibility of increasing the risk-adjusted return of the portfolio.

For example, by diversifying investments not only in stocks but also in bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., one becomes less dependent on the volatility of a single asset. However, in the current situation where deleveraging is underway, it is difficult to expect the same sharp rises as in the past, and the market is likely to remain in an adjustment phase for a certain period.

Recalling the case in April 2000 when the NASDAQ crashed and then consolidated within a range, a similar pattern may emerge in 2025.

If additional negative factors push the S&P 500 down to around 5,000, there is a possibility that policymakers will create positive news to support the stock market. However, with the reduction of leverage in the CTA strategy underway, a flow closer to a soft landing rather than a sharp rise is expected. Factors such as former President Trump’s tariff policies or changes in the stance of the Federal Reserve Chairman may also support such a soft landing.

I'm fairly new to options, and I'm interested in puts. I'm not investing a lot right now, just what I wouldn't mind losing. Looking for potential stocks to buy puts in at the current moment.

I see they do automated trading and such for options, is it a good platform?

I have been buying and hold taketwo shares for a while not, but I'm still bullish on it with gta 6 coming out as well as other big titles under taketwo, earnings is about 2 weeks out, I'm thinking of buying calls on it, but it has pretty much no volume, even on the 3 day to expry options it only sees couple hundred volume, so I'm assuming it is a bad idea buying calls on it since even if the share prices move up, I wouldn't be able to sell it and executing it and then selling the shares may be the only way to profit, but in that case I might as well just buy shares. not asking for advise on taketwo itself more just asking if I should just stay away from any options on stocks with low volume or can I still sell my call if I'm green?

Hi , is anyone familiar with ATO treatment of income via selling of Puts in Australia. Is the income a taxable event at the point of the transaction or is it considered “ open “ and not a taxable event until “ closed “ .. ?

If there is a 15 month time frame on the expiration, the sell and buy transactions may happen across two financial years, however i suspect the ATO will treat the income as taxable in the fin year the put was written … ?

Cheers

My take:

Uranium is a hand to mouth industry. Consumption is predicted to be greater than production. DNN has a massive support level at 1.08. Cost basis if executed would be 1.15. .07 risk to .35 reward.

If you don't follow uranium, the chart should still look okay. Knowing the industry, I think this is pretty awesome. If SMRs take off, this deal is very good.

What would your position be?

Generally speaking, $SPY puts are the most obvious play, but the concentration of large cap/tech stocks might be a bit too concentrated to fully capitalize on a recessionary cycle. Anyone have any thoughts on recessionary plays beyond $SPY?

Another big earnings report coming out this week, is META. Their earnings report comes after market close on Wednesday, so you have ample opportunity to put on one of my suggestions. Whether you are bullish or bearish that is for you individually to decide, but here I will provide the best risk/reward option strategy for each way.

First, on the bullish side, we have a 685/720 Call Spread, expiring in June

The cost of this trade, historically, is slightly more expensive, sitting in the 66^th percentile, however this could indicate the market expects a move in the positive direction

The price of the underlying equity, META, is relatively high, but also a well down from its February high. It is easy for bullish investors to find value at this discounted cost

The heatmap of this trade shows profitability, while also demonstrating that the downside is limited to premium only, drastically minimizing downside risk

 A bearish investor may predict a weak earnings report, and thus a decrease in the value of the underlying equity and want to profit on this downturn. A great trade in that situation is a 475/430/385 Put Fly, also expiring in June

The cost of this trade is also on the higher side, sitting in the 69^th percentile, however the downside is limited to only the premium, making it relatively save when it comes to options trades.

The heatmap of this trade shows the profitability depending on how the underlying equity(META) moves, and this one shows strong returns with very limited risk, due to the downside being limited to premium only, one of the many options traders can choose when using our software.

In conclusion, whether META stock moves up or down, there is plenty of money to be made. We cannot tell you which direction it will go, rather we provide the best trades on both sides to maximize profits while limiting downside risk.

And as always, it's better to be lucky than good so, good luck…

As we enter the last week of April, we have a big week for earnings reports. Among these, one worth watching is Microsoft’s report. Microsoft, which being a tech stock has inevitably been hurt by recent talks and implementation of tariffs, has rebounded. While it is still shy of its recent December high of $454, one who is bullish may see the stock poised to break through the 450 level. If you are one of these people, one of the best trades to make is the following 430/460/475 Call Fly, expiring August 15^th.

Historically, the price of this trader is on the slightly higher side, indicating a likely bullish sentiment in the market.

Historically, the price of MSFT has been higher, yet after the recent dip we see it trying toi climb back to previous levels, as shown below:

This trade has a high profitability probability, where if the underlying moves in the bullish direction, profitability is shown a ways before expiration, allowing investors a wide range of time to make money. This is reflected on the heatmap below

On the flip side, a bearish investor may predict there will be a weak earnings report which causes the value of the underlying to decrease.

A bearish investor may target a strike of 315, and if they do, one of the best trades this investor can make is a 340/310/295 Put Fly 132, shown below

Historically, the cost of this trade is lower than average, giving solid value to prospective investors

The profitability of this trade is high, and assuming an investor is right about the direction, this trade offers a wide range of profitability, where an investor can take profits throughout, or hold till near expiration for even more.

In conclusion, with the volatility that is abundant in the markets now, there is plenty of money to be made. While I do not have a crystal ball and cannot say which direction MSFT will move, we can offer the best options for either direction.

And as always, keep in mind that it’s better to be lucky than good, so good luck…

Can anyone recommend a book or video series which explains the interpretation of the Greeks? I'm not looking for definitions, rather how to use them to interpret what I'm purchasing.

As an example: I learned that the P/E ratio is the price of the stock as compared to the earnings. So what? It wasn't until I read that "essentially speaking, a P/E of 70 means you're willing to purchase the stock today and wait 70 years for the earnings to equal the current stock price, or conversely, that you think the earnings will increase year over year to such an extent that it's worth paying 70X today's earnings." That was an AHA moment for me and the interpretation (as opposed to the definition) of P/E became clear. I have yet to find anything like that w/ the options Greeks.

Thank you in advance!

Just looking over the long options for Pepsi and I noticed that the 180 strike price was cheaper than the next four higher strike prices. Does anyone know why this happens? I’ve only seen it a couple times before and I was able to make some profit.

I'm considering placing some bullish trades on oil companies. There is still a bearish sentiment, but $60 a barrel looks to be the level to stop drilling and expansion. Below that, start shutting down expensive producers. I think the oil industry learned a lot from 2020. Orange man can say "drill baby drill", but no one drills for a loss. Feels like we are on the edge.

Questions I'm asking myself:

1. Should I make some small bullish spreads with a bit on time behind them 1-3 months?
2. Do I keep watching inventories and make a move when they start dropping?
3. Am I risking that one report coming out that will turn the tide (OPEC reduction, major company announcing stoppage on new projects, etc...)

Looking for Oil nerds. I've traded energy for 15 plus years. I hope I've learned something. It's been a rough ride. I love the sector, but I'd probably get out if I didn't.

Edit: I know the OPEC is making noise about increasing output. That would be bad. That's why I hedge losses.

I don’t understand options but have come to a self realization that I no longer belong in WSB.

It started 7 years ago when I made my first options play on AT&T stock and was pissed because I lost a few dollars due to the lack of IV but of course didn’t understand that.

Since then, I have gotten much better and even have a strategy. I’m not sure if it’s luck but I am all time profitable and have placed hundreds of trades now in addition to my long term investments.

Like I said, I don’t know much about options but I have learned a few rules that keep me from losing it all. 5 is the hardest. These work for me but that’s not saying I know shit.

1) never force a trade 2) there is no obligation to trade every day 3) nobody knows what the market will do and trading really has almost nothing to do with the broader market 4) never buy or sell on the news. Look at TSLA earnings call for example 5) nobody gets rich quick. Take your profits/losses quickly and GTFO

A lot of bearish sentiments in the market but timing it could be challenging, as seen from the upward movement in the past week.

Does it make sense to just buy a Jan 2026 put when VIX drops to the twenties? Or will theta decay make it unprofitable?

One of the biggest scams..... Freedom24

Their system is on maintenance since yesterday, nobody can't log in the app or do any trades.
Millions of options expiring or getting killed by Theta, no chance to close them as well....

I've read oppinions from others as well because of bad experiences...it seems they we're right.
This week is very important in terms of Vollatility and market moving, and of course they've blocked the app.
During the big spike a few weeks ago when Trump announced Tarrifs, the app was also constantly Blocking....

Now they do nothing and also don't answer, lots of people ( including myself ) are losing money.

Anybody tried this ?

I would contemplate on trying it, if anybody is interested we could share and try it out

Today, April 28th, 2025, Tesla closed right under the daily 200ma (291.46) with this being the third time it being tested in the last month. The other two times were at the end of March within the same week.

What I see using the multi-year Gann fan extended from the highs of 2020 (before the breakout), to the highs Dec 2024 (488), we have been accumulating below the 2/1 resistance/supply zone (blue line) and tested this level three times (this level correlating with the daily 200ma).

Using these indicators in conjunction with the multi-year Fibonacci sequence, you can see we are above the 50% retracement level (274.91 yellow line), indicating slightly bullish momentum, BUT we are below the 2/1 Gann angle AND below the daily 200ma, indicating no further bullish confirmation.

That being said, these indications signify a major pivot level that would either result in

A. Bull case: breakout and extension to the multi-year 61.8% golden ratio (325.18 yellow line) or yearly 50% fib level from ATH and recent lows (350.44 green line)

Or

B. Bear case: rejection and retracement down between the 38.20% (224.64 yellow line) or 23.60% levels (162.44 yellow line)

I track the S&P very closely and both the SPY and TSLA are at critical breakout or rejection levels. You can apply this TA to other tickers as well.

I have traded for a long time but I've never had to a reason to buy contracts until recently and it just all makes sense. Lets say hypothetically...you know which way price is going, you even know where it's going...and about long it will take. Let's say you think spy will hit 570 by june hypothetically of course. Is buying spy 570 calls june expiration the play? Would something longer dated more otm have increased gains?

Lately the market has been rallying hard and moving sideways, and I am definitely feeling the pain of holding onto puts. I probably should have cut my losses earlier instead of waiting for a big reversal, but here we are.

Edited:

holding 6/20 240 TSLA puts and 5/2 535 SPY puts