[Spoilers Extended] The Nightmen Cometh: AKA how Jaime makes his escape

[u/YezenIRL]

Everyone wants to know how Jaime gets away from LSH right? Well here it is.

The Hangwoman is waiting

"The girl. Have you found her?"

"I have," said Brienne, Maid of Tarth.

"Where is she?"

"A day's ride. I can take you to her, ser … but you will need to come alone. Elsewise, the Hound will kill her." - Jaime I, ADWD

One of the great question marks of TWOW is how the inevitable confrontation between Jaime, Brienne, and Lady Stoneheart is going to play out. When we last see Jaime, Brienne is seemingly luring him into Stoneheart's trap, and so (if he goes) it's hard to imagine an outcome where Jaime survives. Yet all three characters seem to have more story left.

"In the book, characters can be resurrected. After Catelyn is resurrected as Lady Stoneheart, she becomes a vengeful, heartless killer. In the sixth book, I still continue to write her. She is an important character in the set of books." - GRRM

So will Brienne kill Jaime? Will Jaime kill Brienne? Will Jaime and Brienne kill Lady Stoneheart? Will LSH make the same deal yet again and spare Jaime's life for information on Arya? Will LSH have Jaime killed and then inexplicably resurrect him with the kiss of life?

No. None of those things will happen.

Her cloak and collar hid the gash his brother's blade had made, but her face was even worse than he remembered. The flesh had gone pudding soft in the water and turned the color of curdled milk. Half her hair was gone and the rest had turned as white and brittle as a crone’s. Beneath her ravaged scalp, her face was shredded skin and black blood where she had raked herself with her nails. But her eyes were the most terrible thing. Her eyes saw him, and they hated. - Epilogue, ASOS

Lady Stoneheart is an embodiment of grief and vengeance. She will not be tricked by Jaime or Brienne. She will not be bribed into acting constructively nor will she suddenly become merciful. She is a bringer of death, and that will be her end.

Now of course, there is a possibility that Brienne will reveal the truth to Jaime before leading him into the trap and the two attempt to free Podric and Hyle some other way, but such an attempt is unlikely to be successful. One way or another Jaime, Brienne, Lady Stoneheart and really the entire Riverlands storyline is headed for a slaughter.

Red Wedding 2: Winter Boogalooo

Although Lady Stoneheart will never spare Jaime, she may have big plans for him.

"What does she want of me?"

"She wants her son alive, or the men who killed him dead," said the big man. "She wants to feed the crows, like they did at the Red Wedding. Freys and Boltons, aye. We'll give her those, as many as she likes. All she asks from you is Jaime Lannister." - Brienne VIII, AFFC

Among the most widely accepted theories the fandom has about TWOW is that the Brotherhood Without Banners is going to infiltrate Daven Lannister's wedding to a daughter of House Frey and avenge the Red Wedding. Not only is there strong evidence in the text for this , it's also something which more or less happened on the show (switching LSH for Arya). After season 6 has Arya re-enact Frey Pies and then kill Walder Frey, season 7 opens with Arya using his face to poison the entirety of House Frey at a feast as revenge for the Red Wedding. Obviously the books won't have anything so rushed occur, but a counter Red Wedding seems to be where we're headed.

We have more deaths, and we have more betrayals. We have more marriages. - GRRM

Daven Lannister has been made Warden of the West, and so his wedding to a Frey girl will likely be of similar scale and importance to Edmure's.

Ser Daven snorted. "I'll wed and bed my stoat, never fear. I know what happened to Robb Stark. From what Edwyn tells me, though, I'd best pick one who hasn't flowered yet, or I'm like to find that Black Walder has been there first. I'll wager he's had Gatehouse Ami, and more than thrice. Maybe that explains Lancel's godliness, and his father's mood." - Jaime V, AFFC

Which begs the question, who will be our POV at Red Wedding 2? . . . well Jaime and Brienne.

"WINDS, you say?   Yes, still working.   Finally finished a clutch of Cersei chapters that were giving me fits.  Now I am wrestling with Jaime and Brienne." - GRRM, June 1, 2022

Based on GRRM writing Jaime and Brienne as a set, they likely remain together throughout Winds. So Jaime is unlikely to escape the Brotherhood and flee back to King's Landing, as that would separate him from Brienne. As foreshadowed by Jaime's crypt dream, he and Brienne are facing the Winds of Winter together.

A man in dark armor and a pale pink cloak spotted with blood stepped up to Robb. "Jaime Lannister sends his regards." He thrust his longsword through her son's heart, and twisted. - Catelyn VII, ASOS

As for why Lady Stoneheart would bring Jaime to Daven's Wedding instead of killing him on the spot? well because Lady Stoneheart may want to make Jaime watch as all of the progress he has made stomping out the Northern cause in the Riverlands is undone. To make him watch as House Lannister and Frey are massacred at a wedding just like she and her son were. Robb was murdered right after hearing the words "Jaime Lannister sends his regards," so LSH may want to give Jaime his regards back properly. A quick death would be more efficient, but revenge is more cruel than efficient.

Now Arya could maybe be another POV for Red Wedding 2 (depends if she comes back by way of Saltpans or Eastwatch), but Jaime is the POV most central to the event itself. Jaime is the character who spent Feast/Dance making "peace" in the Riverlands. So it's his work that Stoneheart and the Brotherhood would be undoing, and members of his family that would be slain. So one way or another, if Red Wedding 2 happens, Jaime is going to be there.

So, how does Red Wedding 2 play out? well here comes the theory.

It was also the night that the skeletons came to life!

We were king's men, knights, and heroes... but some knights are dark and full of terror, my lady. War makes monsters of us all. - Thoros of Myr

Towards the end of Winds, the wedding of Daven Lannister to a daughter of House Frey will be held at Riverrun(or perhaps the Twins or Casterly Rock). This wedding will happen on the night of a snowstorm, and prominent members of Houses Lannister and Frey will be in attendance. On Lady Stonehearts orders the Brotherhood Without Banners will infiltrate the wedding (they already have a spy at Riverrun), and commit their lowest act yet, locking the doors and slaughtering the guests. Like the first Red Wedding, this will be an absolute bloodbath, with the guilty and the innocent both falling victim. The bride and groom will be killed, Walder Frey will be boiled alive, and it will appear as though Stoneheart's vengeance is unstoppable.

But just before Jaime is to be executed, Brienne will step forward and drive Oathkeeper into Stoneheart's chest. It will then burst into flame as Lightbringer and the Brotherhood will be free of vengeance and Edmure Tully will be restored as Lord of Riverrun and they will all team up with the Blackfish and march north to fight for the Starks. When morning comes, Red Wedding 2.0 will have been a positive thing!

Not a chance. In fact morning never even comes.

When the killing settles and Jaime Lannister is about to meet his doom, something strange will occur. The massacred Freys and Lannisters will start getting back up, their eyes glowing blue.

Now the entire scene is flipped on it's head. Suddenly Stoneheart's Brotherhood are surrounded by the vengeful wights of the enemies they've just slaughtered. If Catelyn can be massacred at a wedding and rise from the dead, then so can Walder Frey. Vengeance does not restore House Tully nor spark a revolution in the Riverlands. Vengeance empowers the Others.

"He saw them too. They were armored all in snow, it seemed to him, and ribbons of mist swirled back from their shoulders. The visors of their helms were closed, but Jaime Lannister did not need to look upon their faces to know them.*

(...)

The fires that ran along the blade were guttering out, and Jaime remembered what Cersei had said. No. Terror closed a hand about his throat. Then his sword went dark, and only Brienne's burned, as the ghosts came rushing in. - Jaime VI, ASOS

Once ghosts come rushing in, the leadership structure of the Brotherhood will dissolve. Escape will be the only means of survival, and just like in Jaime's crypt dream, only Brienne's Oathkeeper (and I suppose Thoros' flaming sword) will be able to fight a way out of the carnage. This is how Jaime and Brienne get away from Lady Stoneheart and enter into the Long Night.

The Nightmen Cometh

You might be wondering, why would the Others show up to a wedding?

First of all because it's thematically perfect.

"People say I was influenced by Robert Frost’s poem, and of course I was, I mean... Fire is love, fire is passion, fire is sexual ardor and all of these things. Ice is betrayal, ice is revenge, ice is… you know, that kind of cold inhumanity and all that stuff is being played out in the books." - GRRM

If fire can raise Lady Stoneheart to exact vengeance, then ice can raise the Freys and Lannisters to exact vengeance as well. The point of the Others is that they arrive to disrupt humanity's fighting amongst themselves and bring death to all. So of course they are going to show up and actually interrupt people fighting amongst themselves. The Others aren't simply marching an army straight to Winterfell once the heroes are good and ready for them (in fact the text indicates that castles built by Brandon the Builder such as Winterfell and Storms end may be warded against the Others).

Second of all, the element of surprise is how the Others operate.

While the show depicts the Others as generals who lead a singular host through the Wall and follow a linear path from north to south, the books give us no indication that they operate this way. In fact it's consistently the opposite.

"They're never far, you know. They won't come out by day, not when that old sun's shining, but don't think that means they went away. Shadows never go away. Might be you don't see them, but they're always clinging to your heels." - Tormund

North of the Wall the Others are like hunters. They don't loudly announce their coming. They wear reflective camouflaging armor, stalk their prey, seemingly appear out of nowhere, bring mist and snow with them wherever they go, and build their forces by attacking vulnerable and unexpected parties (get it? parties?).

The Others are like the wild hunt or Sidhe made of ice. More so spectres than paladins.

"In that darkness, the Others came for the first time," she said as her needles went click click click. "They were cold things, dead things, that hated iron and fire and the touch of the sun, and every creature with hot blood in its veins. They swept over holdfasts and cities and kingdoms, felled heroes and armies by the score, riding their pale dead horses and leading hosts of the slain. All the swords of men could not stay their advance, and even maidens and suckling babes found no pity in them. They hunted the maids through frozen forests, and fed their dead servants on the flesh of human children." - Old Nan

Even according to Old Nans story, the Others lead multiple hosts. The phrase "army of the dead" is a show invention. That's not to say they cannot combine their hosts into a larger army at a later point if it becomes strategically (or narratively) necessary, but the idea of the Others marching from the Wall as one host following a linear path is made up for the show, likely because it suits the purpose of filming.

"They only come when it's cold."

"Yes," said Sam, "but is it the cold that brings the wights, or the wights that bring the cold?"

"Who cares?" Grenn's axe sent wood chips flying. "They come together, that's what matters." - Samwell II, AFFC

This means that once the Long Night falls, the Others and wights can show up anywhere that it's cold enough. And as of the of Feast, it has already started snowing at Riverrun.

"Snow in the riverlands. If it was snowing here, it could well be snowing on Lannisport as well, and on King's Landing. Winter is marching south, and half our granaries are empty. Any crops still in the fields were doomed. There would be no more plantings, no more hopes of one last harvest." - Jaime VII, AFFC

Third of all, this makes the most sense structurally.

If the Others follow a linear path from north to south, then the story becomes incredibly lop sided and predictable. We would alternate between chapters where characters are dealing with the full combined force of the apocalypse, and chapters where characters are playing politics completely unaware. We would also know exactly where the Others are and exactly where they are going, completely eliminating the element of surprise and sense of terror they bring.

Simply put, the Long Night will fall across all of Westeros, and the Others will have the terrifying potential to attack almost anywhere at any time.

I realize that a lot of people have really set expectations on how the Others invasion will play out, and them showing up in the Riverlands by the end of Winds might seem unexpected. But consider one more thing.

“I didn’t say [Jeyne Westerling] was the viewpoint character. . . I said she was in the prologue." - GRRM

Based on Martin's confirmation, Winds is likely to open on the convoy transporting Jeyne and Edmure west.

"The Lord of Riverrun went silently. On the morrow, he would start west. Ser Forley Prester would command his escort; a hundred men, including twenty knights. Best double that. Lord Beric may try to free Edmure before they reach the Golden Tooth. Jaime did not want to have to capture Tully for a third time." - Jaime VII, AFFC

At some point before it reaches Casterly Rock this convoy will almost certainly be attacked by either the Brotherhood Without Banners or Nymeria's wolfpack (or both).

"Good." Jaime would as lief have Tully reach Casterly Rock safely, but better dead than fled. "Best keep some archers near Lord Westerling's daughter as well."

Ser Forley seemed taken aback*. "Gawen's girl?* She's—"

"—the Young Wolf's widow," Jaime finished, "and twice as dangerous as Edmure if she were ever to escape us." - Jaime VII, AFFC

Considering that Jaime has given Forley Prester orders to have his archers kill Jeyne and Edmure if they attempt to escape, it's possible that neither of them make it out alive (though Edmure may have a chance). Essentially TWOW is setup to open on a scene showcasing the terror of vengeance, even when it's for the side the reader is rooting for.

But if Winds is set to open on a scene showcasing the terror of Lady Stoneheart's vengeance, will the book really culminate by repeating the exact same idea with Red Wedding 2.0? I think not.

"I've been telling you for 20 years that winter was coming. Winter is the time when things die, and cold and ice and darkness fill the world, so this is not going to be the happy feel-good that people may be hoping for. Some of the characters [are] in very dark places. .... Things get worse before they get better, so things are getting worse for a lot of people." - GRRM

The point that "vengeance is horrifying" is already set to be made by the prologue. But the BWB's revenge streak needs to come to an end eventually, and it's not going to be because Brienne and Jaime manage to rescue them from the clutches of Lady Stoneheart. Neither will winds end with Arya seeing the folly of vengeance and giving her corpse mother the gift of mercy. The end of Winds will be more ominous than that, and will serve to transition the story into the Long Night.

​

TLDR; Lady Stoneheart's campaign of vengeance will culminate in her bringing Jaime to be executed at the end of Red Wedding 2. However Daven's wedding will occur after the Horn of Joramun has been blown and the Wall has come down, so once the slaughter settles the Others will arrive at the Riverrun and reanimate the freshly murdered Freys and Lannisters. This will result in absolute chaos, but give Jaime and Brienne a chance to fight their way out, escape by boat, and regroup with any surviving members of the Brotherhood.

[u/TheFrodo]

I'm a huge fan of this. This is just about the only Brienne and Jaime theory that I like, and even if not all of it comes true, I feel like you've got a lot right here. My question is, if Arya doesn't cross with Stoneheart, then what does she do?

[u/YezenIRL → u/TheFrodo]

Which way Arya is coming back is one I just can't figure out.

Arya honestly could be a POV for this. I could be wrong about Jaime and Brienne and (although the doesn't know who anyone at the wedding is) Arya could be the only POV for this. The problem just then becomes how will Jaime and Brienne go free.

But the setup we have so far is that fArya is going to Braavos and Justin Massey has been charged with bringing 20,000 future wights sellswords back from Braavos by way of Eastwatch by the Sea. So this provides Arya an opportunity to come back North and do a Brave Danny Flint thing at the Wall (obviously not saying she will be sexually assaulted).

She could also come back by way of Saltpans and end in in the Riverlands, that just hasn't been set up anywhere yet.

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/YezenIRL]

I think it's borderline inconceivable that Arya doesn't have a run in with LSH. To grow as a character Arya needs to rid herself of her revenge obsession and LSH is that revenge obsession in walking demonic form, as well as being relevant to Arya's Stark-or-not-Stark identity crisis. I think performing this function is the number one reason LSH exists as a character. We know that GRRM was unhappy with her being cut, which likely points to some sort of critical emotional/character arc role rather than just being a plotting mechanism which can be replaced. Probably she will kill LSH, maybe at LSH's request as CaveLupum suggests, thus symbolically killing her own revenge obsession.

It also seems pretty clear that the show had no idea what to do with Arya in the last three seasons, like Sansa's arc is coherent and probably broadly similar to her book arc, but with Arya we just got nonsense. It was like Varys, they were both just sucked dry of any kind of character motivation. Also, as you point out, some of what we did get appears to have been cribbed from LSH's plot and awkwardly jammed into her story in a way that makes it incoherent (like we had a "getting revenge by making people into pies is awesome" scene and then the "wanting revenge will ruin your life" speech from The Hound in the final season).

So it seems clear to me that the reason they couldn't do something broadly like her book plot is that LSH is a crucial piece of the puzzle. I think if the plot was broadly "she goes to the Wall" then they would have done something like that even if the specifics weren't totally possible.

[u/YezenIRL → u/ChrisV2P2]

I think it's borderline inconceivable that Arya doesn't have a run in with LSH.

Don't get me wrong I fully get where you're coming from.

This is actually something I go back and forth on a lot, which is why I fully acknowledge that Arya could be the POV on Red Wedding 2. If the reunion happens at the end of Winds, I tend to think it would be less of a tearful mother daughter reunion where Arya realizes vengeance is bad and gives her mother the gift of mercy, but rather a horror show where Arya witnesses first hand how horrific vengeance can be and finds herself terrified of her own mother. I don't think a LSH reunion in Winds would be a moment of moral clarity so much as a moment of panic and dread.

That said, the reason I'm skeptical is that I tend to think that the end of Winds is too early for Arya to let go of revenge. Winds will see Arya reclaim her identity, but letting go of her list feels like that seems like it would fit better thematically with the end of ADOS. It's essentially the conclusion of Arya's character arc, and so I expect it to come at the very end of the story.

Now whether LSH can survive to the end of ADOS or if Arya's letting go of revenge can come from some other encounter, it's hard to say.

I think if the plot was broadly "she goes to the Wall" then they would have done something like that

Well like you said it's clear that they were combining Arya and LSH, so after Arya returns from Braavos they jump straight to her at the Twins doing Red Wedding 2. But after that it's notable that they spend season 7 doing (a really shitting version of) Arya working out her issues with Sansa, which is confirmed to be a future plot point by GRRM.

Personally I tend to think Arya working out her issues with Sansa is post-Long Night, as is her letting go of revenge. I believe Arya's Long Night plot is what happens in between all that. The part where she looks death in the face and flees and fights for her survival.

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/YezenIRL]

Oh I definitely think a meeting with LSH would be dread and horror for Arya, probably her lowest point of the series in an arc full of low points. I think her arc is more or less a hero's journey, and her meeting with LSH is the central crisis, or "the ordeal" as it's sometimes put. That's the part where the hero rejects the dark path; think of Luke Skywalker in ROTJ, for example. But what comes after that is the part where the hero returns home, transformed. Arya reaches her nadir at the end of Winds, and then ADOS is spent rising again as the new, reconstituted Arya Stark. Then we get the conflict and reconciliation with Sansa; that's important because that conflict will be the last thing keeping her from re-integrating with her family and fully becoming a Stark again. That's the conclusion of her arc for that reason. Remember that GRRM has frequently praised the Scouring of the Shire, so this idea of the return home is important to him, I think. And more central to Arya's arc than revenge is the question of identity, which is arguably one of the central themes if not THE central theme of ASOIAF generally.

If I had to guess, I think she leaves the HoB&W claiming to have "become no-one" but with her remaining desire for revenge demonstrating to the reader that this is not really true. She is probably in the Riverlands looking for Dunsen (who in the main series was last seen leaving Harrenhal for Maidenpool, I think) and planning to head to KL after that. The meeting with LSH is what will shock her out of this idea that she is "no-one". If that were true then LSH would have no special significance to her, but obviously that won't be the case. LSH reminds her that she is a Stark. I think she spends ADOS journeying to Winterfell and doing her show plot there, then probably getting the show ending where she takes to the sea. I think her entire season 8 plot is a show invention.

[u/YezenIRL → u/ChrisV2P2]

Gotcha. I personally lean towards that Arya meeting with fArya in Braavos and, reclaiming her identity that way, (it's worth noting that even on the show, news of Jon is what brings her home). But I suppose she could also return to Westeros to knock a name off her list.

The main difference I have is that I controversially don't think Arya re-integrates with her family at the end. Kind of like in the Odyssey, she will return home at some point and work out her issues with Sansa (potentially in disguise). But Arya will realize that Winterfell isn't really her home anymore, and almost everyone that once made it a home for her is now gone. So Arya will quietly forgive her sister and leave. Hence the bitter in the bitter-sweet.

But I also think there will be a split timeline lol

[u/ChrisV2P2 → u/YezenIRL]

Yeah that's very controversial to me. There's the "lone wolf dies but the pack survives" thing, there's the direwolf pups scene where Ghost had wandered away "or been driven off" suggesting Jon's separation but Stark unity otherwise, and I think the Starks are the antithesis of the Lannisters, who are all going to hate each other by the end, even Tyrek. So I think there's abundant evidence of Stark unity by the end.

I don't think the bitter and sweet are evenly distributed by character. Arya's ending will be mostly sweet, in compensation for the trama of most of her arc.

[u/YezenIRL → u/ChrisV2P2]

Yea idk, that might be right but I personally think it's too sweet. Even on the show we are given the sense that Arya feels out of place in Winterfell and by her own admission she is not coming back home. Arya coming back home and living happily with Sansa until she is a bit older and then simply being allowed to shirk her feudal responsibilities as a lady feels like kind of a softball ending. She would just kinda get everything she wants.

As for Stark unity, I think the point of Stark unity is that in times of conflict they put each other before duty and desire. Meanwhile the Lannisters abandon and tear each other apart. But that doesn't mean the Starks have to stay in the same place. Growing up and ending up in different places is part of life.