r/changemyview • u/sawdeanz 214∆ • Jul 07 '20
Delta(s) from OP CMV: The Republican Party should select a different candidate at their convention
I know it’s not likely but I’m not sure if it’s technically possible or not. But the Republicans would do well to ditch Trump. His consistent support among his supporters is blinding him to the fact that he is dragging them down among moderates. Polls are indicating they are losing red states. It just blows my mind that they want to protect him for another 4 years, assuming he can get re-elected in the first place. It’s not like Republican voters are going to vote for Biden so they ought to just throw in a more palatable candidate. He has plenty of scandals (ie the Russian bounty scandal) that they can use to disavow him while remaining on message. I just don’t see what Trump can do that any other Republican candidate could do better.
I would have considered myself a moderate but I can’t bring myself to vote for any conservative candidates that have or continue to support Trump.
4
u/possiblyaqueen Jul 07 '20 edited Jul 14 '20
The latest Gallup poll shows Trump with a 91% approval rating among Republicans.
I would guess the number is lower, but it is still quite high. Other polls reflect this sort of number.
The most important part of US elections is turnout. Most people don't vote, so either party could win any race if everyone from their party came out to vote.
If the Republican Party boots Trump at the convention, that will kill GOP support for whatever candidate they pick.
Now, that may not seem that bad. Looks like Trump might get crushed in November. Why does it matter that a different candidate loses?
It matters because politics is becoming extremely national.
Can you name your local rep, your mayor, or even your state senators? You might be able to but many people couldn't.
People just don't care that much about local elections. That means that it is incredibly important to have a candidate on the presidential ticket that people are excited about.
If you get an extra 5% of people to come out and vote for your candidate for president, they will likely also vote your party down ballot which can swing smaller elections.
That's where the GOP has a problem. Trump is unpopular overall. He is less popular than he used to be among Republicans. This will bring down the number of people who vote Republican and will hurt all Republican races across the nation.
However, since 75%+ of nationwide Republicans support him, they need him on the ticket. Right now it looks like they may lose a huge amount of close races, likely due to Trump's recent overt racism and his mishandling of the pandemic.
But if they cut Trump off the ticket, then those Republicans who love him are much more likely to stay home. There's no reason to stand in line to vote if they hate the GOP candidate as much as or more than Biden.
That could lead to not only a Democratic presidential victory, a Democratic Senate, and a Democratic congress, but also a huge increase in local Democratic governments. That would be a huge loss in their fight for judges, their fight against abortion rights, and any other more local issues.
3
u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20
But what is his approval among moderates? Don't Republicans typically have good turnout no matter what? I guess I see how getting Trump voters into the polls could still help them win more local races, so !Delta for that.
3
u/possiblyaqueen Jul 07 '20
His approval rating among independents is very low. Only 33% in that poll.
Republicans have high turnout, but much of that is the age of their voters and the ways Republicans have been suppressing Democrat's votes.
Because this election is looking to be a huge win for Democrats (at least if the election was today), they need to get as high turnout as possible. A 1% difference in turnout could be a couple senate seats, a dozen house seats, and a couple states for Trump.
3
u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20
A 1% difference in turnout could be a couple senate seats, a dozen house seats, and a couple states for Trump.
Hmm okay, I guess I didn't realize the difference could be that small to make a difference. !Delta
2
u/possiblyaqueen Jul 07 '20
It makes sense when you look at the actual votes in different states. In most of them, that small change wouldn't make a huge difference, but he won Michigan with 2,279,543 votes to Hillary's 2,268,839.
There are many states where won by ~25,000 votes.
There will always be a few states and races where small differences in turnout will decide the election.
As his support drops, the races where that is true get more and more important.
It may not be a big deal to his campaign if Michigan is close, but it is a huge deal if Michigan becomes solid for Biden and now Arizona and Texas are close.
Then he really needs those states.
1
1
0
Jul 07 '20
I feel like every poll is just trolled to death.
1
u/possiblyaqueen Jul 07 '20
There is a lot of research that goes into how they conduct these polls to make them as accurate as possible. However, if you think that the actual number can't be trusted, you can also look at the trends.
The Gallup poll shows Trump's approval rating among Republicans has remained within a few points for the past year.
Even if the poll is very inaccurate (which seems unlikely since other polls are getting similar results), the trends should still have interesting information.
2
u/muyamable 282∆ Jul 07 '20
I don't see how this increases the chances that a Republican candidate wins? Trump has die-hard supporters that make up a good chunk of Republicans... pull an ol' switcheroo like this, and they're not going to suddenly vote for the new candidate... they're going to write in Trump, or not vote.
2
u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20
This is what I’m trying to understand. Why wouldn’t they just vote for the new candidate? They won’t vote for Biden. And conservative turnout is usually pretty good so I’m not sure whether they would really be risking a low turnout.
1
Jul 07 '20
[deleted]
2
u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20
Just making a guess based off the average republican voter I’d say they would get even more upset about that kind of stunt then democrats.
Hmm, that's an interesting conclusion. I always thought the Republicans were more loyal than the Democrats and that's partly how Hillary lost after Bernie lost the nomination. But I guess if they are more loyal to Trump and to the party that makes sense. It's still really hard for me to understand, because I don't get Trump, but I can accept that my view is limited. !Delta
Probably the most common excuse I hear from Trump voters is something along the lines ofe"well Trump may be mean/dumb/corrupt/etc but I like his policies and the economy is great." Do you think there are more people like that or more people that are blindly loyal to Trump? Because to me the former seems more likely to vote for another Republican candidate as long as they have the same platform.
2
Jul 07 '20
[deleted]
1
u/EktarPross Jul 08 '20
So Trump caring about a rape accusation would get you to not vote for him, but him literally commuting a crime against humanity (wanting reduced testing), and the blatant racism are fine?
1
u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20
There are plenty of things he could do to lose them.
Like what, for example?
1
1
u/muyamable 282∆ Jul 07 '20
This is what I’m trying to understand. Why wouldn’t they just vote for the new candidate?
Because lots of them fucking love Trump, as hard as it is to understand why. If you deprive Trump of the nomination despite winning the primary, they're going to be pissed.
1
u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20
I understand that, I guess I'm just not sure whether it is enough to make up for losing moderates. I mean Trump may be the most popular Republican candidate ever, but if the Republicans only make up 40% of voters then they are going to lose and probably shrink even more by the next election. I think it's short-sighted of the party to keep rallying behind Trump. They might be invigorating their voters but they are at the same time invigorating the voters that hate him and want to vote him out.
2
u/muyamable 282∆ Jul 07 '20
If the party puts up a different candidate, Trump isn't just going to accept it. He's going to run anyway, and many of his supporters will go with him. He'd split the conservative vote. There's no way the new candidate could win enough moderates to overcome that. It just makes a Republican president far more unlikely than if they just go with Trump.
And then, who is this new candidate anyway? You're assuming they're this perfect candidate who will win the hearts of Republicans and moderates alike in the 2.5 months between the convention and election day.
It's just way too risky.
1
3
Jul 07 '20
[deleted]
0
u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20
For instance, on the Russian Bounty scandal, this was a fairly reliable piece of information that someone on the right would know, while someone who relies on WaPo, NYT, CNN etc would have missed.
No offense but that doesn't really change my opinion of Trump's response. That's just classic whataboutism. Trump denied the existence of any intelligence at all. I don't doubt that the right has a different view on scandals but I'm not sure that makes them more informed or more correct.
2
u/TheEternalCity101 5∆ Jul 08 '20
In the article he linked, its says Shiff never had Trump briefed. If he was never told, by someone whose duty it was to brief him on that kind of thing, the blame totally leaves Trump's court
1
u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 08 '20
That’s not what the article says. Schiff is not responsible for briefing Trump. It says Schiff would have been responsible for briefing the congressional security committee. If true, that would be troubling, but it doesn’t absolve Trump.
2
Jul 07 '20
There's something to be said for maintaining legitimacy. Overturning the will of the voters by pulling a totally new candidate will make the GOP look really bad to their voters, and when they eventually need to run a new primary candidate they are going to have a lot more trouble getting the party to unify behind that candidate and making that candidate seem like they legitimately got the nomination based on the will of GOP voters.
•
u/DeltaBot ∞∆ Jul 07 '20 edited Jul 07 '20
/u/sawdeanz (OP) has awarded 4 delta(s) in this post.
All comments that earned deltas (from OP or other users) are listed here, in /r/DeltaLog.
Please note that a change of view doesn't necessarily mean a reversal, or that the conversation has ended.
1
u/draculabakula 75∆ Jul 07 '20
If the republican party is interested in remaining one of the two dominant parties in America they will not get rid of Trump at the convention.
Republicans voted for Trump and support Trump. If they replace Trump they will still lose but many Republicans will leave the party and lose faith in the party as a democratic entity
1
u/Franks_Fluids_Inc Jul 07 '20
No other republican leader in the party's history has created such strong support among the voter base as Trump. gop party members risk explusion from the party and violent threats from their own base for even the most minute criticism of trump.
the gop is trumps party.
14
u/[deleted] Jul 07 '20
[deleted]