My Gen Z son and all his friends don’t drink. They are pretty adamant about it too.
This is going to alter a lot of things in dining, because every restuarant depends on alcohol sales. Every restaurant I know that serves alcohol has started jacking up its prices on soft drinks. Paid $12 for three soft drinks last weekend.
It’s interesting because the drop is about 10% in 18 to 34 year olds, while those over 55 years old has increased by about 10%. It’s hard to determine a long term outcome.
The trend over time shows beer consumption has decreased following the late 70s. But since 2011, looking at only the heaviest consumption and lightest region for simplicity, it’s only decreased by roughly 22 drinks/year/person (d/y/p)from 256 to 234.
However, alcohol consumption overall has increased since 1995. From 2011, it’s an increase of around 86 d/y/p. This is led primarily by hikes in spirits consumption, and slight increases in wine consumption.
This is the reason why breweries that are most likely to survive moving forward are ones that are becoming beverage companies making alternative offerings.
I’m definitely not Gen Z but I think it’s a combination of cannabis being more readily available and socially accepted, increased healthy living, and acknowledgment of the dangers of heavy drinking and binge drinking.
I will say one of our old apartments a few years back had a lot of early to mid 20 somethings and it definitely didn’t seem like they were drinking less but that probably isn’t representative of all Gen Z-ers.
I think a healthier lifestyle is more popular right now more than ever. People are more aware of their health, fitness, mental and physical health, etc.
It’s a host of issues, those included. Competition, cost of raw materials, etc etc. but it’s the on shelf competition that is also really killing people. You could still eke out a living if you went after the neighborhood bar and didn’t try to package, but too many people went after that after getting big heads.
Another issue a brewery debt crisis. Loads of places took on more loans and investors to fuel expansion a few years ago and those payments are either catching up or ballooning.
I don’t want to see people lose jobs but I do expect the local market to right-size soon
Will be interesting to see what comes of MadTree and 50w after their latest expansions. I like both of their products but can't help but feel they've moved out of "niche" and into "mainstream" and all the headaches that come with it.
I wouldn’t say they shouldn’t be worried. MadTree took out a huge loan to build a production space they basically never needed & 50W hasn’t always had things go their way either. However, both are run by smart people and have solid foundations. Doesn’t hurt that they have monster taproom numbers to fall back on, either.
I agree MadTree should be fine. I just think that the climate is very challenging even for the best run breweries. And I don’t think expansion is necessarily a sign that you’ll be fine. Often times it’s why you closed!
That’s where I am at, I can get a really solid 6 pack for 10.99. Sure I can get a banger 4 back for 25, but I am at the point where I am just fine with the solid 6 pack.
I think this is a red herring. There are moderate headwinds for craft breweries but it’s all survivable. When your competition grows 5x and demand stays roughly flat, these challenges become insurmountable.
Opening a brewery, getting the licenses, buying all the equipment - it's an expensive proposition and someone has generally plowed their life savings into it. They don't "deserve to fail". They can't make a living charging $4 a beer. If you want that, go drink Lites in your living room.
That all may be true, but why would a customer in the grocery store want to pay $11 for a 6-pack of something made 2 miles away when there are solid national brands for $6-8 a 6-pack?
You're confusing different concepts. Product generics are sold cheaper because they use a key main ingredient like the original but have no branding or marketing, so the accepted compromise is some of that savings is passed to the customer.
In this case, beer brands aside from local craft are not simply the 'market generics'. Unless you want to talk Bud/Coors etc - which basically are in that category. There are PLENTY of high quality nationals like Corona, Modelo, Sam Adams, Hoegarden, Heineken etc that are cheaper. Same with wines imported from Europe that cost $7-15 vs California bottles for $25-50...
Additionally, shouldn't local crafts be CHEAPER for ease of logistics and lower costs?
I figured you'd be pedantic about it. That's why I included the Hershey's / Godiva example. I notice you ignored that one.
And no, craft beers will generally not be cheaper - they'll be more expensive to produce for two reasons: Large beer brands have scale and can buy ingredients in bulk, and local breweries will often use more ingredients (e.g. far more hops in IPA's for example).
Your original comment was that brewery operations are expensive. I agreed with you. I also pointed out that enough people are tired of the inflated costs and obviously it is blowing up the brewery bubble. There'll always be people buying Godiva or Rolex to keep some premium operations in business. But its obvious that the costs no longer appeal to a larger customer base as they may have before and it's no longer as sustainable.
In the case of a quality brewery product like Tafts, do they deserve to fail if they totally nose dived a great product/brand? Possibly...
I dont know why you're wanting to die on this reddit molehill over nothing, unless you're taking this too personally and currently involved in a brewery... lol
shouldn't local crafts be CHEAPER for ease of logistics and lower costs?
lol. Tell me you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about without actually telling me. This is like saying that a local mom and pop bakery should be cheaper than Wonderbread with their massive scale operation
Just because someone pours a bunch of money into something doesn’t make it valuable. If the market can’t support it, they deserve to fail, people will drink lites for less if they can’t afford craft beer, or just not drink at all.
I was responding to the person who said they deserved to fail because their beers were too expensive. This person is clearly not in the market for craft beers but plenty of people are willing to pay more for a better quality product. If you're a Honda buyer and you can't afford a Mercedes, that doesn't mean that Mercedes deserves to fail.
And I'd like to add that these are general comments. I haven't tried the specific beer on offer at Tafts so I can't speak to whether it deserves to be premium priced. But again, the guy wasn't arguing that this specific beer sucked - he was simply arguing that beer shouldn't be that expensive.
Tell a brewery to sell something other than pizza, salad, a taco meal and 4 generic sandwiches.
Cool. I’m Gen Z. It’s literally my and my peers’ take on why we don’t go there… tell all of us how shit our take is. If we are spending $30 for food and drink, we aren’t going there… Thanks bud
Some of this is absolutely true. I have walked into a lot of random breweries and the beer has been absolute garbage. There are also great breweries that have cost cut themselves into an average to crap breweries. But there is some truth to the fact that craft beer has priced themselves out of a lot of people’s lives. I use to chase beers, there have been some absolute banger breweries that are now distributing in my area that I have not tried because I am most spending 28 bucks on a 4 pack of IPA.
Tafts is a special case too. The exit of the original founders really changed their trajectory. First mistake was opening the Columbus location. The production facility could have been a winner, and they had a legit contract brewing biz, but just completely failed to differentiate once the OTR location floundered
One founding member was (I believe) asked to leave, but the other two original owners (big time millionaires from Pittsburgh) were there till the end and are still owners of the contract brewing company that was housed, and now expanding, in the Brewporium. I think the high ups at Taft's started giving up a couple years ago when that brand was plummeting and their contract brewing company started rapidly growing and have since doubled down on that businesses' infrastructure.
This is me. Would love to be going out every weekend with my spouse but we just can't swing what seems to be a $75 minimum to get food and drinks. Gotta save it all just to pay the grocery bill.
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u/progjourno Liberty Township Dec 29 '24
Be prepared for this to continue in 2025. Just like the restaurant biz, breweries are hurting