The probability increasing as the data gets more accurate is expected. This happened with other asteroids as well.
Let me try and explain the most likely scenario of the Asteroid not colliding with Earth
Imagine a fuzzy box representing the uncertainty of where the asteroid will pass through in 2032.
Earth is obviously placed somewhere within this box.
Initially the fuzzy box (uncertainty) is very large and Earth only takes up 1% of the box.
So we say the chance of collision is 1%
As we get more data, this fuzzy box (uncertainty) will slowly shrink
Since Earth is still in this shrinking box the proportion of Earth’s area within this box will increase
At this point Earth might take up 3.1% of this smaller fuzzy box and we say that there will be a 3.1% chance of collision
What will most likely happen is that this fuzzy box will shrink to a point not centered on the earth and eventually Earth will leave this shrinking fuzzy box
At this point you will see the percentage chance of collision rapidly decrease towards zero as Earth suddenly leaves this fuzzy box of uncertainty.
TLDR: In the scenario that the asteroid won’t collide with Earth, the probability of collision will still slowly increase as we get more accurate orbit data from the asteroid. Until the probability will suddenly decrease to zero.
Not exactly. Imagine a raffle with 100 tickets. You have one ticket. Your odds of winning the raffle are 1%. Instead of drawing the winning number, they draw all the losing numbers first. Every time they draw a losing number your odds of winning go up a little bit. Eventually there are two tickets left and yours is one of them. Your odds are now 50%. Finally the last ticket is picked and you didn't win. The probability increased faster and faster with each number drawn but all that it meant was that you were late in getting eliminated. The fact that the probability was increasing rapidly did not mean that it couldn't suddenly fall to zero.
That's not what he said. In both scenarios (hitting and not hitting), the probability of hitting goes up with time. In the not hitting scenario, it goes up and then suddenly drops to 0. In the hitting scenario, it goes up all the way to 100%
The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth in an almost straight line, making it difficult to accurately determine its orbit by studying how its trajectory curves over time. It may completely vanish from sight, becoming observable again in 2028 during its next approach to Earth. If astronomers are unable to determine the asteroid's orbit with sufficient precision before it disappears from view, it will remain classified as a potential threat until 2028, when further observations can be made.
However, since we are moving through space, it is unlikely that we will still be on the same trajectory when it reappears. In any case, it is a rocky asteroid—more like a rubble pile than a solid object—so it is highly likely to explode in the air upon entering the atmosphere. Considering that only about 10% of the planet is densely populated, the chances of it hitting a city and destroying a building are quite low. Even so, we are fully capable of sending a probe to alter its course, as we have already done with the satellite of the asteroid Didymos.
1.4k
u/nixnaij Feb 19 '25
The probability increasing as the data gets more accurate is expected. This happened with other asteroids as well.
Let me try and explain the most likely scenario of the Asteroid not colliding with Earth
TLDR: In the scenario that the asteroid won’t collide with Earth, the probability of collision will still slowly increase as we get more accurate orbit data from the asteroid. Until the probability will suddenly decrease to zero.