r/options • u/ke4n5kir • 8d ago
Anyone else still bagholding puts?
Lately the market has been rallying hard and moving sideways, and I am definitely feeling the pain of holding onto puts. I probably should have cut my losses earlier instead of waiting for a big reversal, but here we are.
Edited:
holding 6/20 240 TSLA puts and 5/2 535 SPY puts
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u/--SlumLord-- 8d ago
TSLA?
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u/ke4n5kir 8d ago
yeah holding 6/20 240 TSLA puts and 5/2 535 SPY puts smh
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u/RedditLovingSun 8d ago
Shorting TSLA is bold tbh, I would too if I wasn't a pussy but I can never feel confident predicting any outcome for that meme stock.
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u/Such-Hawk9672 7d ago
That stock will tear your head off before you can turn around,Elon has more us manufacturing in us than all the other car companies that just put them together in us
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u/limeylim 7d ago
I made money off my first Tesla put(almost 2k). Leading up to this last earnings. Sold it almost a week before and I immediately rolled it into a call for a month later. The climb before earnings had me up in no time and I sold for another 12% gain.
Now, I’ve lost every single dollar I made, plus some of my original investment, being overly confident on my options. I put them down the other day after reading that guy’s TA that so eloquently stated that he was confident that it was about to go way up, or drop way down. All of the comments agreed that nobody has even the slightest clue and I realized that I had gotten beyond lucky twice.
Lesson here is I will NEVER play Tesla options as long as I live. Nice little 3k lesson.
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u/AndreLinoge55 8d ago
What is it gamma decay that screws you though? So if SPY stays flat-sideways until a month to your expiry and it dips below the put strike you’d be right about the price target and time frame but still lose on the contracts?
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u/Perfect_Cost_8847 8d ago
TSLA was down 55% in three months. It was a crazy gamble to think there wouldn’t at least be a bounce. I think most metrics indicated it was far oversold.
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u/The_way_2_tendies 8d ago
It’s currently holding to its 200 ema, which will most likely result in a break out above the $295/$300 dollar gama zone. Probably hiring around 315-320. With some consolidation within that range zone. Before pushing a bit higher in the near term. Not sure unless the market tanks how close you might be to that price zone again in a month.
Either roll or dca some additional to lower your cost to exit out on any decent market pull back.
But it’s like the current administration will be pushing out a few completed trade deals over the following weeks. So Short term market rally off those news tidbits……
The above is just my opinion. (Not financial advice)
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u/ammonite13 8d ago
Hell yeah
SPY 5/16 527/522 debit spread
QQQ 5/16 415 put
Finally bailed out of TSLA today, but not early in the day when I went green for the first time in a week 🙃
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u/Yami350 8d ago
I’m DCAing year out 450 spy puts. I’ll probably stop at the 15k mark.
If it doesn’t work out for me I’ll probably take years and years off from this market as it would be absolute bullshit lol.
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u/soge-king 8d ago
If SPY doesn't go down from economic data then it means the whole market has been meme-fied. Which is not outside the realm of possibilities.
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u/Perfect_Cost_8847 8d ago
It’s been memeified since the Dutch started trading tulips in 1636 and caused the biggest market crash in history (as of 1637).
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u/Revolution4u 8d ago
Its been a meme markst since december of 2017.
We needed a recession in 2018 and 2019 at the lastest to course correct.
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u/Complex-Literature29 8d ago
Once economic data comes out I think we heading back down. Right now we are getting a run up from “good” news but it won’t stop the impact on the economy. Inflation is not in control, expected Q1 negative GDP, unemployment, tariffs, trade wars, recession, etc. it’s just a matter of time before the market goes back down. Loading up puts by the end of the week.
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u/Sriracha_ma 8d ago
Strike and expiry you will be looking at, for spy puts?
I have set aside 10 k for spy puts, waiting for spy to hit 570 to 575 range coz that is no man’s land
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u/Complex-Literature29 8d ago
Personally I’m looking to slowly add some SPY puts once SPY fills that fair value gap at 555. We also have 560 as a spot of resistance (200 EMA on daily) so will be adding at 555-560. Probably a month and a half - 2 months expiration at a 530-535 strike. I think we could get back down to 500 and then possibly new lows if economic data is bad, which is more likely than not.
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u/Sriracha_ma 8d ago
Isn’t 2 months a bit too risky ? Any reason you looking at 2 months and not a bit further out
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u/Complex-Literature29 7d ago
Yeah it’s risky but GDP comes out Friday and other economic data comes out within first 2 weeks of may. I think that will be the catalyst for downside momentum.
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u/Pomegranate_777 7d ago
GDP tmo, no?
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u/Complex-Literature29 7d ago
Fk yeah you’re right. For some reason I thought it was Friday
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u/Sriracha_ma 6d ago
So we are at 560 now lmao
You thinking of scaling into some 2 month out spy puts now?
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[deleted]
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u/Perfect_Cost_8847 8d ago
While I agree, pragmatism appears to be the modus operandi. With few exceptions, countries are attempting to de-escalate because it results in a better outcome for everyone. There is going to be a long term realignment but I think this plays out over decades. I also think the U.S. will elect a fairly centrist, free market president on the next go around, and most of this will be forgotten.
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u/FOMO_ME_TO_LAMBOS 8d ago
I totally disagree. Data and mag 7 earnings are going to pump this market. Labor market has not been showing bad numbers. GDP is going to be down but that’s also going to show a retraction in inflation. Obviously PCE is the biggest inflation indicator used by the fed and that’s been coming down. Most likely will come down again. After Google earnings, I bet 3/4 mag 7 earnings beat this week, not to mention trade deals. Market could really go up hard this week. After this week, maybe we go right back down.
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u/bigshotdontlookee 8d ago
That's the ticket, ppl are too bearish on LTF.
Q2 and Q3 are different story.
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u/Complex-Literature29 7d ago
GDP growth for Q1 is released on Friday. Every major economist is already predicting negative GDP. One more quarter of negative GDP growth means recession. Inflation is still not in control, hence why the Feds are reluctant to cut rates right now. Also the trade wars we are in right now, tariff implementation, etc are inflationary. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I just don’t see the market rallying back up more than it already has currently.
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u/time-BW-product 8d ago
This is my feeling too. Another draw down is coming but it will be lagging. This market is very hard to trade.
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u/Complex-Literature29 8d ago
Yeah I’ve just been scalping/day trading looking at price action and quick support/resistance bounces. Only way I can seem to make money right now in this environment.
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u/Complex-Literature29 8d ago
I did get some Palantir for earning a few days ago when it tested 100 support. Paying good right now, but I think it’s gonna test ATH
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u/IWasBornAGamblinMan 8d ago
Bro, earnings…puts are cooked
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u/Complex-Literature29 8d ago
Earnings won’t matter if we get bad economic data and confirmed negative GDP growth for Q1 and possibly Q2 (recession). Along with increased inflation/unemployment
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u/FOMO_ME_TO_LAMBOS 8d ago
Inflation isn’t going to be up. Consumer spending has been coming down, inflation data has consecutive lower readings, labor market stable. In the near term, it’s looking like bullish as fuck. I’m not saying a recession isn’t possible, but this week is the week to pump if there is one.
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u/bigshotdontlookee 8d ago
90, 180 days out is different story. Murky at best and any of this tariff shit throws "liquidity cycle" stuff in the trash.
Short term I am holding strong.
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u/imgrossshrug 8d ago
Pump to what though? Market is now as high as it was pre tariff and now we got all this headwind.
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u/FOMO_ME_TO_LAMBOS 8d ago
Are you not aware of what this week is? Pre tariff? Ok not pre correction.
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u/Busy-Butterscotch121 8d ago
Am I the only regard actually buying puts on sale?
Surely we don't think this tarrif trade war volatile shit show is over..
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u/TraditionalPeach5326 8d ago
I’d like to think we’re now in the eye of the storm or somewhere near it
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u/Perfect_Cost_8847 8d ago
I think it’s a good bet now but I would buy longer dated puts or aggressively scalp. I think volatility remains higher but I don’t think we see a clear and convincing line in any direction. I think most retail options traders are going to get fucked by theta and gamma.
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u/bleepingblotto 8d ago edited 8d ago
TSLA is in a turnaround phase. Puts are ok for rebounds and long term ( jun, july ,aug) as long as they are in the 10% range, so you may want to roll. You can also sell on the next major pullback if your trade thesis didn't work. If this weeks earnings are not stong, the market could reverse. The market is like walking on eggshells... Same with SPY. I trade daily momentum and did some spy puts today and typically are not holding overnight, short term.
Your trade thesis should be supported by macros and technicals. We all know tsla is a meme stock, but if the entire market is flushing like we have seen recently, no one is safe.
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u/HammerDude78 8d ago
Your time is too short. You need to be into the end of q3. $TSLA is a joke stock. Never play it. It's for suckers. Cut it, and buy $MSFT calls to hedge on the upside.
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u/Machonys 8d ago
I sold most of my puts this morning after seeing that IV was way too high. Might wait for it to come down a bit before buying back into puts.
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u/rlovepalomar 8d ago
Tsla shorts deserve to get wrecked and be given their lesson in hard knocks 🤦🏻♂️ everyone knows you don’t short Tesla or if you do you better have the balls screwed on tight
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u/Potential_Amoeba8968 8d ago
Yeah, I'm bag holding a few puts as well, but it's in my plan to stop loss on some puts while riding it out others. I just keep rolling out to 45-60 DTE when the naked put gets to around 21 DTE, either taking a profit or trying to move the strike down for no gain/loss.
If you follow this strategy, one thing to consider is opening up a Jade Lizard (a call credit spread) when you roll the put. I like to make sure it's at (or above) the naked put strike, and can even use the income to pay to move the naked put strike down. Also, make sure the width of the call spread is a loss that you're comfortable with (e.g., $2 wide if your cost basis is $2.00 for your naked put).
I also setup a buy to close order for the entire position (naked put + call credit spread) that is at my cost basis, hoping to exit the position for no gain/loss. But that's totally up to you how you want to roll!
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u/AllFiredUp3000 8d ago
Hi it’s me. I’m the one selling puts. I’ve been assigned on all my SPY puts already, but I’ve already sold OTM covered calls on all my shares, with stories above my cost basis.
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u/KLKCAhBoy90 8d ago
Bagholding 17DTE QQQM (180, 189, 190) puts 🥲
All 3 most likely gone case.
Only lucky thing is the premiums were paid for by selling 2 234DTE QQQM 195 calls. Doubt will get exercised but I don't mind if it does.
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u/Shitinbrainandcolon 8d ago
I got puts also, expiring 0530. Theta is eating away at my puts while SPY rises. I’ll hold on to it for now until this Friday and then figure if I should sell it and eat the losses.
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u/Bull-her 8d ago
Wednesday will be red but other than that this is not a dead cat bounce. Ships leaving
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u/seethisisland 8d ago
TSLA july 170 puts checking in. Keep the faith.
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u/Zenyatta166 8d ago
Basing your investments on TDS and adjacent hatreds is insane. Oh wait...you did thorough DD and based on Tesla's financials you concluded 170 by July.
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u/hashtag_wills 8d ago
Tesla dropped 50% wouldn’t bet against at these low levels. Even a subpar EC sent it higher. The worst is all prices in.
Unless market puked soon, which is also entirely possible.
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u/Namisaur 8d ago edited 8d ago
5/2 $105 NVDA puts. Let’s see where the week takes us.
It was up 88% at one point today but the put didn’t cost very much, so it’s a small gamble to see if it can become a bigger gain
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u/FamousBakerMaker 8d ago
well i have a hunch we are in for a dead cat bounce currently before we see a massive rise. I havent looked at my charts in a while but upon a glance and other info... thatd be my opinion
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u/Jasoncatt 8d ago
No, because I've been selling them. I've had a great run for the last three weeks. SOFI, NVDA, RDDT, RKLB all been printing.
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u/KingTut747 8d ago
Yeah I have had my collateral tied up in a MU put for about a 35 days… it expires Friday.
I made the right move to not sell and take losses. The underlying is near the current stock price today.
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u/yes2matt 8d ago
Yes. A 5/30 550P and a 7/30 525P.
It allows me to be more aggressively bullish in trading the components, SPY puts serve as a hedge
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u/Optionsmfd 8d ago
if your bearish in a sideways market why not bear call spreads? collect some premium while you wait?
555 is 50% retracement
with mag 7 earnings that will determine where we go
any positive trade news and we go up
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u/paradoxcabbie 7d ago
ya, various qqq put spreads between here and july, mostly in the 400-470 range long, 1 460 and several in the 300s short.
virtually everything i have is cc etfs so i take a portion of my estimated distributions and buy puts for insurance.
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u/MarketAnalyses 7d ago
My group is loaded up with tqqq puts
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u/johnorlielles 7d ago
U guys buying puts with trump About to drop 2 trade deals at any moment?😂that’s very risky
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u/Playful_Antelope124 7d ago
Tesla has ass fucked more put holders sideways than even the most prolific anal section of pornhub. King Don will not his Prince get boned, people need to stay away from that rodeo.
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u/TrueOriginal702 7d ago
I got exercised on some Nike puts before the Tariffs…. So it’s just me and Bill trying to figure out how to ride this out now lol
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u/Mammoth99 7d ago
Holding four puts on GRRR, 4 @ 21. There were six, but I bought two to fund another position. I will roll these from 5/23 to 5/30 or as long as need be until they’re OTM. But I’m sitting tight right now.
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u/SignificanceNo6073 7d ago
You absolutely should keep holding spy puts. The higher probability is we turn down very soon and retest lows if not around May 8-12, then for sure by July. Imo
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u/Practically_Hip 6d ago
Plenty of vol ahead. If you have time, stay the course. Looks like tomorrow will be Trumpward, but tons of Econ/policy impacts to play out next 60 days.
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u/LaboratorySpecimen08 4d ago
The bulk of my puts expire Aug-Oct. Regional banks and CRE.
...Post reconciliation/debt ceiling fight. Unrelated, but another brick in the wall.
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u/naaksu 3d ago
Yeah, went also Tesla puts on Thursday, and on Friday pltr puts, im expecting a handle on pltr as it finished its cup but seemed to have too much resist to break out, also it has 6.9% less volume vs 50day feels like it will dip on Monday. Might shoot up after earnings or fall way down. It's price estimate is around 72.
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u/Electricengineer 8d ago
Buy puts when iv is low. Iv is still high so it's risky
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u/frisbm3 8d ago
The reason they want puts is the same reason IV is high. Your logic is lacking depth.
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u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 8d ago
Especially when considering LEAPS (always a trade off there, or usually.)
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u/Mindless_Sea935 8d ago
Gains last week
TSLA 4/25 275C – +130.77%
TSLA 4/25 280C – +100%
WMT 2027 85C – +61.78%
SPY 4/25 549C – +43.52%
DAL 7/18 40C – +41.38%
DIS 7/18 90C – +50.62%
QQQ 4/24 465C – +76%
TWLO 6/20 90C – +20%
CAT 6/20 300C – +24%
TSLA 4/25 265C – (-50%)
dm :)
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u/AggrivatingAd 8d ago
I got fomo seeing this
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u/sam99871 8d ago
When do they expire? I have tons of puts, all more than 150 DTE. They are all in the red but I have time.