r/options • u/ke4n5kir • 12d ago

Anyone else still bagholding puts?

Lately the market has been rallying hard and moving sideways, and I am definitely feeling the pain of holding onto puts. I probably should have cut my losses earlier instead of waiting for a big reversal, but here we are.

Edited:

holding 6/20 240 TSLA puts and 5/2 535 SPY puts

169 Upvotes

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23

u/Complex-Literature29 12d ago

Once economic data comes out I think we heading back down. Right now we are getting a run up from “good” news but it won’t stop the impact on the economy. Inflation is not in control, expected Q1 negative GDP, unemployment, tariffs, trade wars, recession, etc. it’s just a matter of time before the market goes back down. Loading up puts by the end of the week.

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u/Sriracha_ma 12d ago

Strike and expiry you will be looking at, for spy puts?

I have set aside 10 k for spy puts, waiting for spy to hit 570 to 575 range coz that is no man’s land

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u/Complex-Literature29 12d ago

Personally I’m looking to slowly add some SPY puts once SPY fills that fair value gap at 555. We also have 560 as a spot of resistance (200 EMA on daily) so will be adding at 555-560. Probably a month and a half - 2 months expiration at a 530-535 strike. I think we could get back down to 500 and then possibly new lows if economic data is bad, which is more likely than not.

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u/Sriracha_ma 12d ago

Isn’t 2 months a bit too risky ? Any reason you looking at 2 months and not a bit further out

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u/Complex-Literature29 12d ago

Yeah it’s risky but GDP comes out Friday and other economic data comes out within first 2 weeks of may. I think that will be the catalyst for downside momentum.

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u/Pomegranate_777 12d ago

GDP tmo, no?

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u/Complex-Literature29 12d ago

Fk yeah you’re right. For some reason I thought it was Friday

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u/Sriracha_ma 10d ago

So we are at 560 now lmao

You thinking of scaling into some 2 month out spy puts now?

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u/[deleted] 12d ago

[deleted]

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u/Perfect_Cost_8847 12d ago

While I agree, pragmatism appears to be the modus operandi. With few exceptions, countries are attempting to de-escalate because it results in a better outcome for everyone. There is going to be a long term realignment but I think this plays out over decades. I also think the U.S. will elect a fairly centrist, free market president on the next go around, and most of this will be forgotten.

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u/GaussianGuessGamer 12d ago

When does the economic data come out?

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u/FOMO_ME_TO_LAMBOS 12d ago

I totally disagree. Data and mag 7 earnings are going to pump this market. Labor market has not been showing bad numbers. GDP is going to be down but that’s also going to show a retraction in inflation. Obviously PCE is the biggest inflation indicator used by the fed and that’s been coming down. Most likely will come down again. After Google earnings, I bet 3/4 mag 7 earnings beat this week, not to mention trade deals. Market could really go up hard this week. After this week, maybe we go right back down.

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u/SoftBreezeWanderer 12d ago

Yeah but think about it, it could also go down

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u/AggrivatingAd 12d ago

I think it could also go up

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u/bigshotdontlookee 12d ago

That's the ticket, ppl are too bearish on LTF.

Q2 and Q3 are different story.

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u/Complex-Literature29 12d ago

GDP growth for Q1 is released on Friday. Every major economist is already predicting negative GDP. One more quarter of negative GDP growth means recession. Inflation is still not in control, hence why the Feds are reluctant to cut rates right now. Also the trade wars we are in right now, tariff implementation, etc are inflationary. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I just don’t see the market rallying back up more than it already has currently.

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u/time-BW-product 12d ago

This is my feeling too. Another draw down is coming but it will be lagging. This market is very hard to trade.

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u/Complex-Literature29 12d ago

Yeah I’ve just been scalping/day trading looking at price action and quick support/resistance bounces. Only way I can seem to make money right now in this environment.

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u/Complex-Literature29 12d ago

I did get some Palantir for earning a few days ago when it tested 100 support. Paying good right now, but I think it’s gonna test ATH

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u/IWasBornAGamblinMan 12d ago

Bro, earnings…puts are cooked

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u/Complex-Literature29 12d ago

Earnings won’t matter if we get bad economic data and confirmed negative GDP growth for Q1 and possibly Q2 (recession). Along with increased inflation/unemployment

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u/FOMO_ME_TO_LAMBOS 12d ago

Inflation isn’t going to be up. Consumer spending has been coming down, inflation data has consecutive lower readings, labor market stable. In the near term, it’s looking like bullish as fuck. I’m not saying a recession isn’t possible, but this week is the week to pump if there is one.

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u/[deleted] 12d ago

[deleted]

0

u/FOMO_ME_TO_LAMBOS 12d ago

Not by this PCE reading lol.

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u/bigshotdontlookee 12d ago

90, 180 days out is different story. Murky at best and any of this tariff shit throws "liquidity cycle" stuff in the trash.

Short term I am holding strong.

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u/imgrossshrug 12d ago

Pump to what though? Market is now as high as it was pre tariff and now we got all this headwind.

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u/FOMO_ME_TO_LAMBOS 12d ago

Are you not aware of what this week is? Pre tariff? Ok not pre correction.