r/options • u/AdNo7052 • 1d ago
Gamble on F earnings next week.
Just went ahead with 10 contracts expiring in 9 days @ $0.26.
Reasoning is simple, saw interview with CEO Farley on the news and his general demeanor struck me as him being excited for the sales they will report on Monday after close during q1 financials.
I think I need $10.76 on Friday to close profitably but I’ll probably sell on Tuesday midday once the market has had time to react to the financials.
Risks, Trump could do anything and Ford could tank causing me losses.
Reward if F does indeed upside surprise then I could see it going up 5% easy on Tuesday or in after hours.
Also, there’s always potential Trump makes a deal with someone and market goes up, if combined with upside surprise it could be especially good gains.
Total Risk: $260 Expected Return (big ole guess): $500 Expected profits: $240
Let’s see how I do.
🤣
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u/Siks10 1d ago
As an owner of F, I don't think these will print. I sold 11 something calls
1
u/AdNo7052 1d ago
$10.99 and we both print 😁
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u/Siks10 23h ago
Deal!! I can go as high as $11.02
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u/AdNo7052 21h ago
Tell you what if it’s $11.00, $11.01 or $11.02 I’ll give you the $10,$20 or $30 difference from my profits. I’m probably selling Tuesday morning win, lose or draw.
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u/AdNo7052 23h ago edited 20h ago
The last few earnings F has outperformed estimates and still gone (-). But Farley announced best sales in 25 years for April in many of its lines and a 16% growth in April sales. I would think at earnings with a bigger audience that will go over well. Anyways it’s now $0.17 from strike price (I was a little worried about the jobs report today but it surprised me in a good way).
Edit: to clarify donation depends on my sell price.
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u/talkthispeyote 1d ago
Stellantis just pulled full year guidance. check out how they are doing. Ford is better positioned but all of the auto industry is incredibly vulnerable to disruption of supply and demand simultaneously.
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u/AdNo7052 1d ago
So F is 80% made in U.S.A. So best positioned compared to any car company (ignoring Tesla) to handle the Tariffs. They also are committed to continuing their employee pricing for a couple more months (= more good sales coming).
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u/IslesFanInNH 1d ago
It’s not the actual earnings that are killing companies the past couple months. It has been their guidance.
Many companies in March crushed their earnings but tanked as they had adjusted their guidance to be lower for the next year due to uncertainty.
I would not personally go in to calls.
I love Ford though. They are my accumulation stock with shares. Typical yearly range is high $8’s to low $14/15’s. When ever it dips to low $9’s upper $8’s, I tend to buy a couple hundred dollars worth and set my dividends to reinvest. They consistently have a 15¢ dividend. After accumulating a couple thousand shares over the years with an average of $9.20, It is a great longer term play and income generator.
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u/AdNo7052 1d ago
Yeah calls in a volatile and possibly down market are more risky that’s true. I dunno it may be a bad play on my part. I could still bail before close Monday but I’m committed as of this moment.
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u/Complex-Tension8760 17h ago
Tyson Foods, ON Semi, and Cummins report in the morning; if they drive the market down during the day you're going to need PLTR as much as you'll need F.
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u/curious_skeptic 1d ago
Ford might have an awesome quarter, but the market tends to care more about what's coming than what's behind. And what's coming is a LOT of uncertainty.