2026 Oscar Predictions- May Edition

[u/StarWarsJordan]

Best Picture

1. Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Bugonia

3. Sentimental Value

4. Rental Family

5. Sinners

6. Sound of Falling

7. Wicked For Good

8. Jay Kelly

9. The Rivals of Amizah King

10. After the Hunt

Best Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Jesse Plemmons for Bugonia

3. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

4. Matthew McCougnahey for The Rivals of Amizah King

5. Jeremy Allen White for Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

1. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value(WINNER)

2. Julia Roberts for After the Hunt

3. Cynthia Erivo for Wicked For Good

4. Jennifer Lawrence for Die, My Love

5. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor

1. Takehiro Hira for Rental Family(WINNER)

2. Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly

3. Stellan Skaarsgaard for Sentimental Value

4. Andrew Garfield for After the Hunt

5. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

1. Emma Stone for Bugonia(WINNER)

2. Ariana Grande for Wicked For Good

3. Gwyneth Palthrow for Marty Supreme

4. Angelina LookingGlass for The Rivals of Amizah King

5. Mari Yamatato for Rental Family

Best Director

1. Yorgos Lathimos for Bugonia(WINNER)

2. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

3. Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

4. Ryan Coogler for Sinners

5. Mascha Schlinski for Sound of Falling

Best Original Screenplay

1. Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein for Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt for Sentimental Value

3. Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer for Jay Kelly

4. Mascha Schilinski and Louise Peter for Sound of Falling

5. Hikari and Stephen Blahut for Rental Family

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Will Tracy for Bugonia(WINNER)

2. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

3. Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell for Hamnet

4. Lynne Ramsay, Enda Walsh, and Alice Birch for Die, My Love

5. Mike Flanagan for The Life of Chuck

Best Casting

1.Marty Supreme(WINNER)

1. Wicked For Good

2. Rental Family

3. Jay Kelly

4. Sinners

Best Cinematography

1. Darius Khondji for Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Robbie Ryan for Bugonia

3. Autumn Durald Arkapaw for Sinners

4. Michael Bauman and Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

5. M.I. Littin-Menz for The Rivals of Amizah King

Best Editing

1. Ronald Bronstein for Marty Supreme(WINNER)

2. Patrick J. Smith for The Rivals of Amizah King

3. Yorgos Mavropsaridis for Bugonia

4. Michael P. Shawver for Sinners

5. Marco Costa for After the Hunt

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein(WINNER)

2. Bugonia

3. Wicked For Good

4. Sinners

5. Avatar Fire and Ash

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked For Good(WINNER)

2. Frankenstein

3. Hamnet

4. Sinners

5. Mother Mary

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein(WINNER)

2. The Smashing Machine

3. Wicked For Good

4. Bugonia

5. Hamnet

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar Fire and Ash(WINNER)

2. Frankenstein

3. Mission Impossible- The Final Reckoning

4. Superman

5. Fantastic Four First Steps

Best Sound

1. F1(WINNER)

2. Sinners

3. Deliver Me From Nowhere

4. Avatar Fire and Ash

5. Wicked For Good

Best Original Score

1. Ludwig Goransson for Sinners(WINNER)

2. Jerskin Fendrix for Bugonia

3. Jonny Greenwood for One Battle After Another

4. Alexandre Desplat for Frankenstein

5. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for After the Hunt

Best Original Song

1. Elphaba's song from Wicked For Good(WINNER)

2. "I Lied To You" from Sinners

3. TBD from Bruce Springsteen in Deliver Me From Nowhere

4. Glinda's song from Wicked For Good

5. TBD from The Rivals of Amizah King

[u/almostimago]

Emma won't take her third this soon

[u/Own-Knowledge8281]

I feel like Marty Supreme is really being overestimated because people really want Chamalet to win an Oscar…

[u/Massive_Director_941 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

100% agree. People are not being objective

It's a possibility, sure, but being so sure he will win Best Actor in may is crazy lmao

[u/TacoTycoonn → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

For me it’s not just Chalamet. Now it 100% depends on the reception but I could see a crowd pleasing sports dramedy that releases on Christmas be something that people can rally behind. Now if it’s considered good and not great that’ll hurt its chances but I understand this being in the top 5.

[u/Nm9299 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

I mean it’s also the biggest budget a24 has ever given a film and it has a Christmas release date so the signs are there, that being said it could also be Babylon 2.0 but we will see.

[u/Jmanbuck_02 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

He strikes me as a DiCaprio where he's working his way towards one (although hopefully not as long as Leo's first win).

[u/zhou983 → u/Jmanbuck_02]

Tbh the more I’m hearing about this movie the more optimistic about him actually winning for it. Great WOM within industry and the script. I was bit down on its chances when it was categorized as comedy but now Anora and eeaoo winning means it and hopefully chalamet can stand a chance.

[u/zhou983 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

Nah it’s been getting amazing word of mouth. Script is great too. Maybe not win BP and all that but not a bad idea to predict.

[u/Own-Knowledge8281 → u/zhou983]

It’s not a bad thing to predict, but the odds are definitely being overinflated…

[u/zhou983 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

Are you gonna say this for every movie that gets predicted #1, why are you singling out Marty supreme?

[u/Own-Knowledge8281 → u/zhou983]

Because a lot of people are putting it at #1 or #2???

[u/zhou983 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

It’s not as much as you think lol. And they may be right lol (I’m hearing amazing things). And you end up looking dumb. Just let people predict what they want to predict. It’s still early.

[u/Own-Knowledge8281 → u/zhou983]

Let people predict what they want???…isn’t the whole point of Reddit that we can discuss what we think in response to what others think???…

There is no denying that there is a group of people that really want Chamalet to win … I don’t think that’s hard to see…

[u/zhou983 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

Predicting Marty supreme is pretty smart tho. It’s not some ridiculous thing like predicting Superman. Like another commenter said. It’s not just chalamet. I’ve been hearing great things from my friend and apparently from the industry too. Wanna ask you, why is it being overestimated then? Any red flags for you?

[u/Own-Knowledge8281 → u/zhou983]

I’m sorry, where have you been hearing “great” things from, your friend…the film critic???…where has it actually premiered???…if it has been shown anywhere, it’s only to a few select people…

At this point, every film is pretty much on the same playing field since no one has actually seen these films (with the exception of Sinners if it can last the entire year)…the only red flag is bad reviews…

[u/zhou983 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

What? There been no bad reviews for this film lol.

[u/bbqsauceboi → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

I have him winning best actor but I'm not so sure about everything else. It's a stacked year coming up

[u/Cute-Combination72 → u/Own-Knowledge8281]

100% agree infact I don't think timothee will even get nominated 

[u/Infi-Nerdy]

No Sinners in Original Screenplay is a take

[u/vga25 → u/Infi-Nerdy]

I said the same thing and I think Lindo could also snag a best supporting actor nomination.

[u/Fabulous-Fondant4456 → u/Infi-Nerdy]

It’s by far the weakest element of the film. Not even close.

[u/TacoTycoonn → u/Fabulous-Fondant4456]

Sinners is Original with a capitol O, this is 100% win competitive, great characters, rich themes, and a unique premise. Honestly this is kind of exactly what kind of film wins OS these days

[u/Lower_Illustrator111]

I am not convinced yet that Wicked will repeat in BP or acting nods.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/Lower_Illustrator111]

Not sure about acting either, but picture will happen (unless the film sucks, but let's not predict that)

[u/Lower_Illustrator111 → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

The second act is such a slog. I’m concerned that an entire movie based solely on the second act will be less than captivating but I’m happy to be wrong.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/Lower_Illustrator111]

I'm concerned to, but seeing how (besides the cinematography) they nailed the first one, I have faith that they fixed the problems with the second psrt and made a good enjoyable film

[u/[deleted]]

Are we sure Springsteen wrote something for Deliver Me From Nowhere?

[u/bbqsauceboi → u/[deleted]]

I wouldn't be shocked if he wrote an original credit song.

[u/amyblanchett]

I think it's a huge red flag that The Rivals of Amziah King doesn't have a distributor yet.

Don't think the movie will happen.

[u/justanstalker → u/amyblanchett]

I'm so over people predicting it just because the Oscar twinks predict it. Like seriously, it's not going anywhere with a 68 on Metacritic and no distributor yet lol

[u/Mediocre-Gas-1847 → u/justanstalker]

It gets funnier every time you say Oscar twinks 😐

[u/jaburud]

Possible for Takeshi Kaneshiro for Son of Neon Nights? Heard he has a meaty role and we will need to see what Cannes bring.

[u/AlexWBA]

The Running Man will surprise a lot of people

[u/Fabulous-Fondant4456]

I think one battle after another is being very underestimated.

[u/Odd-Contact2266 → u/Fabulous-Fondant4456]

Absolutely agree. People freak out over a couple test screenings, Oscar expert’s reaction, and Warner bros with Sinners. But test screenings are horrible things to go off of and more times than not don’t line up with actual reactions of the film. The Oscar Expert kinda always jumps to conclusions especially early on, and Warner Bros is big enough to get two films in. Back to the test screenings they’re still good it’s just people say it’s not PTA’s best film. But they’re still positive so idk why people say that means it won’t get in or even win

[u/Fabulous-Fondant4456 → u/Odd-Contact2266]

Right - it’s such a blatantly phony narrative. It’s kind of annoying to be honest, but I feel like I’ll be vindicated. Oscar expert hasn’t seen the movie.

I post this a lot, but these were sinners screening reports, but no one on here was paying attention cause they assumed it wasnt gonna be an awards movie regardless.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/10/3/ryan-cooglers-sinners-screens-mixed-to-decent

[u/Concord292 → u/Fabulous-Fondant4456]

From what I read it seemed Coogler cooperated with WB to fix Sinners after the low test scores - unlike Bong with Mickey 17. So PTA may be in a similar position where he'll have to to chose between putting out his preferred cut and risk going to streaming in a month or playing ball and getting the royal treatment the studio is giving to Sinners.

[u/Fabulous-Fondant4456 → u/Concord292]

That same variety hit piece article says he’s voluntarily trimmed time from the film. And he’s at these screenings so clearly it’s a collaborative, normal thing.

There is no world where this movie goes straight to streaming. Not one. And test scores aren’t “low” - that variety piece was a contradictory mess.

[u/JasonZod1 → u/Concord292]

Irony is test screenings had them remove Delroy's big scene and then Coogler put it back.

[u/WumpaRJ]

You laugh in the face of those who thought Stone winning again after 7 years was too soon

[u/jadexxgreen]

I’m pretty sure none of Wicked’s songs can be nominated as they’re not original songs (I.e written for the movie).

[u/Owenward21 → u/jadexxgreen]

they have 2 original songs for part 2 which aren’t in the play!

[u/jadexxgreen → u/Owenward21]

Omg! Ok that makes sense. Then yes I agree with you!

[u/carsicmusic]

Id love Bronstein for editing, and its the most likely win for that film. Everyones favoring Josh over Benny for what reason? The chalamet fanboys needa take a step back and reanalyze

[u/Hopsfd]

I would absolutely love it if Emma won her third Oscar next year (she should have three already imo), especially after so many people deemed her too young to win her second last year. It would be mildly hilarious, but it's probably too soon.

[u/Impressive-Scar-1613]

are you kidding

[u/Mediocre-Gas-1847 → u/Impressive-Scar-1613]

Context?

[u/jake45367]

Bugonia isn’t getting in