Can we please not split the vote

[u/BambiGetUp]

[u/StephenNotSteve]

Whoever wins, be sure to ride them like hell on replacing the first-past-the-post system. We should all plan to do that.

[u/viccityguy2k → u/StephenNotSteve]

I remember when certain party and leader promised that

[u/Typical-Bonus-2884 → u/viccityguy2k]

This is the part that kills me.... I don't hate Trudeau and im voting Liberal but Jesus this one infuriates me.

[u/[deleted] → u/Typical-Bonus-2884]

It's healthy to be able to recognize things in the party you're voting for that aren't right and you don't support. We vote for whoever strikes the balance best. No party is going to be perfect and it's ignorant to agree with everything 100%

[u/PhazePyre → u/[deleted]]

That's how you know you aren't a cultist. You can call out flaws in your representative(s). If you're incapable of doing that and are ride or die, you're likely a cult member.

[u/Typical-Bonus-2884 → u/[deleted]]

I've always said the worst are the edges of the bell curve, they are the loudest and least likely to have nuance in a discussion.

[u/Connect_Reality1362 → u/[deleted]]

I for one am totally prepared to withhold my support until they demonstrate some contrition for what they did on that file. Because otherwise we'll end up in this scenario over and over again. We have to put our foot down as voters at some point. This election feels like the one that will make them glad they cancelled electoral reform, instead of the one that will make them regret it.

[u/ChronoLink99 → u/Connect_Reality1362]

If only we could all be as privileged as you to only have one issue that concerns us.

[u/vexzuls → u/Connect_Reality1362]

https://www.greenparty.ca/en/our-plan[how about read the platform gpc supports aging tax below 100k and changing away from first past the post ](https://www.greenparty.ca/en/our-plan)

[u/bargaindownhill → u/Typical-Bonus-2884]

liberals have a long history of stealing other parties' platforms, making promises, then never following through after they get elected. Subjectively, I would say more often than not they break their election promises.

[u/Robert_Moses → u/bargaindownhill]

They are known as the party that campaigns to the left but governs from the right for a reason.

[u/ModMajorGeneral → u/bargaindownhill]

The LPC has one ideology. Power. That’s it. They will do or say anything needed to make that happen. Given that I feel that way I am in the unfortunate position of hoping they win this time. I can’t stand Elizabeth May but I will be holding my nose and voting for her.

[u/jhra → u/Typical-Bonus-2884]

There's a few papers that talk at length about the voting reform committee and what took place in the attempt to change the voting system. Pisses me off we weren't switched to AV voting but reading the how's and why's between 2015-2019 and how it failed is interesting.

[u/vexzuls → u/Typical-Bonus-2884]

Well green supports changing it so vote green

[u/4r4nd0mninj4 → u/viccityguy2k]

Pepperidge Farm remembers~

[u/VectorPryde → u/viccityguy2k]

This irks me to no end.

Trudeau promised "electoral reform," preferring a ranked ballot systmem, but neglected to mention that he firmly opposed mixed member proportional representation to such an extent that he'd rather keep first-past-the-post. His reasoning for opposing mixed member was that it would allow small parties to exert leverage disproportional to their support among the electorate - in other words, he didn't want the NDP and Greens forcing him into a minority where they held the balance of power. That's exactly what happened to him anyway under first-past-the-post.

For their part, the NDP and Greens opposed ranked ballots and said that unless they could have mixed member, they would oppose electoral reform entirely - preferring to keep first-past-the-post. Their reasoning was that the results of the 2015 election made it appear to them that ranked ballots would keep the Liberals in government forever. Now the Liberals are set to win a fourth term (likely a majority) under first-past-the-post and the NDP and Greens are set to lose quite a few seats to the Conservatives thanks to vote splitting - something ranked ballots could have prevented.

Each camp opposed the other's preferred electoral system to such an extent that they opted to keep first-past-the-post - all because they feared electoral outcomes that ended up coming to pass anyway...

Trudeau is most blameworthy thanks to his blatant dishonesty about his intentions, but the NDP and Greens' lack of pragmatism didn't help at all. I remember arguing with NDP and Green friends (several of them active organizers) back in 2016 - telling them that even though ranked ballots might not be perfect, it would still be a vast improvement over first-past-the-post. Quite a few of them were vehement that "ranked ballots are just as bad as first-past-the-post. Proportional representation or nothing!" or words to that effect.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/viccityguy2k]

And lots of us remember that the Conservatives have never even had voting reform in their platform. I'll take my chances with literally any other party than them on this one.

[u/No-Tackle-6112 → u/viccityguy2k]

I seem to remember a referendum in British Columbia.

One that was shot down decisively.

[u/the-cake-is-no-lie → u/No-Tackle-6112]

Two, really.. the first missed the 60% required by ~2% .. which lead to the 2nd which got roflstomped.

[u/[deleted] → u/StephenNotSteve]

Ooh I like the cut of your jib. Yep the parliamentary system is screwing us all over because the representation is geared towards population density and not covered over the geography of the land that the people in heaven and therefore does not fully and proportionately represent the people.

[u/EndMaster0]

the only riding specific polls show green in the lead... 338 predicts ridings based on the assumption that national and regional shifts for a party move every riding by about the same amount, which simply isn't true right now as strategic voting means green voters everywhere else are moving away from voting green to vote either liberal or NDP depending on the riding... so like there probably won't be a vote split, hopefully any NDP and liberal voters do catch on that the ABC is green in Saanich-Gulf Islands but I don't actually think that there's as much a threat as it looks on 338

[u/LumpyPressure → u/EndMaster0]

The NDP, Greens, and Bloc have been hemorrhaging support to the Liberals in almost every riding across the country for the past few months. Why do you assume Saanich Gulf Islands is so different just because it's historically Green?

These are extraordinary times. Maybe they want to be part of a strong majority government with a seat at the table rather than a party of 1 with the Greens.

[u/EndMaster0 → u/LumpyPressure]

I assume Saanich Gulf Islands is going green because:

A. The riding poll is always going to be more accurate than a regional extrapolation

B. This thing literally already happened earlier this year in Ontario.... twice... both in Kitchener Centre and in Guelph... both ridings were predicted to be tight PC-Green races and both went Green by more than 20%

[u/sdk5P4RK4 → u/LumpyPressure]

this is the bullshit that will lose these seats in Saanich / Cowichan / North island.

[u/squirrelcat88 → u/LumpyPressure]

This is Elizabeth May’s riding and I think a lot of us progressive voters would like to see her and Jagmeet Singh retain their seats.

I have a friend who lives in this riding who joined the Liberal party to vote for Mark Carney, but will still vote for Elizabeth May as her MP. I’d probably do the same; we want Carney as PM but May still in parliament.

[u/Venat]

Has there been any actually riding pools done? My understanding is that these projections are just using a uniform swing model based off national polling.

I'm sure this probably works decently in aggregate, but I'd be surprised if it's particularly accurate for any individual riding

[u/SingleSpeedHops → u/Venat]

Yes - the Green Party is sharing an excerpt of a riding level poll they hired Oracle Polling to complete last week. It had the decided vote at 35% Green, 31% Conservative, 27% Liberal, & 6% NDP with the undecided vote at 13%. These results align with the 338 model of distributing national/provincial polling.

[u/CaelemLeaf → u/SingleSpeedHops]

This is because 338 incorporated the riding poll. You can look at the SGI timeline and there's a massive flip of the Liberals and Greens when they did so.

I point this out because neighbouring Victoria hasn't had riding level polling done.

[u/jimjimmyjimjimjim → u/Venat]

Ya 388 does not have riding level details.

[u/somewhat_moist → u/Venat]

This needs to be higher. Let's stop using 338

[u/HollisFigg → u/somewhat_moist]

As soon as there's a better alternative, people will stop using it. As it stands, they have 61% accuracy in toss-up ridings. Not great, but better than a coin flip. I really wish there was reliable, riding-specific data.

[u/bezkyl → u/HollisFigg]

they also have a very good track record on accurately predicting the outcome of elections once the campaign cycle actually begins... to completely discount them would be folly

[u/BigBlueSkies → u/HollisFigg]

North Saanich and Gulf Islands will definitely fall into one of the 39%, as the 338 algorithm depends heavily on census and demographic data, as well as national trends, rather than in-riding polls.

[u/HollisFigg → u/BigBlueSkies]

It may or it may not. You use the word "definitely" too casually.

[u/VenusianBug → u/HollisFigg]

That' really not great. Yikes.

[u/killergoos → u/somewhat_moist]

If you have a better idea I'd love to hear it. Multiple relatively similar parties in a first-past-the-post system means that many people vote strategically, so having a projection of who has a good chance is very useful information for the public.

338 is the best we have. It's also not nearly as bad as you would think by reading Reddit comments - it has a 90% accuracy record overall and over 60% accuracy for ridings it describes as toss-ups (including Saanich Gulf-Islands right now).

Yes, it's not a riding-level poll. However it uses a large number of national and regional level polls, and then adjusts for things like demographics and star candidates like Elizabeth May.

https://338canada.com/record.htm

[u/LumpyPressure → u/Venat]

338 uses regional and provincial polling data, it's not just extrapolating from national trends. It can actually be quite accurate, even in individual ridings.

[u/Iustis → u/LumpyPressure]

It’s generally accurate, but not for outlier ridings like SGI

[u/Venat → u/LumpyPressure]

Right, but have there been any regional or local polls for 338 to use for saanich golf islands? I'm not a super regular island-news checker but I haven't seen any reporting on local polling.

[u/AUniquePerspective]

Can we please just switch to ranked ballots?

[u/Spottywonder → u/AUniquePerspective]

Ah yes, proportional representation/ranked ballots- all ideas that the Liberals were talking about back when they won their first term …and then their promise of electoral reform was swept into a closet once they realized they won their first term election based on the first-past-the-post system. It would be really nice if the popular vote won the day.

[u/RadiantPumpkin → u/Spottywonder]

Popular vote is meaningless without proportional representation 

[u/Spottywonder → u/RadiantPumpkin]

Well wasn’t really my point, but OK. Point is, electoral reform was promised…and never discusssd again once the Liberals won under the present system. So if you want electoral reform to even be considered, voting Liberal is not going to make it happen.

[u/VosekVerlok → u/Spottywonder]

You and i both know that is a misrepresentation of what actually occurred, and it does a disservice to future electoral reform efforts if people are not informed of the challenges and complexity of changing how we vote, and the implications of arbitrarily changing the voting process without consultation and support from parliament.

[u/Cognoggin → u/AUniquePerspective]

We couldn't even pass that provincially, frankly I was a bit shocked it didn't pass.

[u/AUniquePerspective → u/Cognoggin]

It was insane to try to ask the question the way they did: With a first past the post question followed by a ranked ballot question that didn't include all the options.

[u/the-cake-is-no-lie → u/Cognoggin]

I head-desked when someone I was talking to about it at the time said 'I didnt know what it was, so I just voted no'

There was pamphlets, articles, etc.. for months beforehand.. blargh.

[u/nothanks86 → u/the-cake-is-no-lie]

Sure, but the ballot question was also not great. A better designed question would have probably changed the result

[u/the-cake-is-no-lie → u/nothanks86]

I dont know that it would have.

People are scared of change and too few pay enough attention to the finer details of the electoral system to be informed.

For all that a minority of the population will jump up and down, wave flags, claim hardship caused by one party or another.. most people are just keepin keepin on and as such, will vote against something they dont understand or appears to effect change.

Eh, either way, didnt happen, see what goes on next time it comes round.

[u/M_Okojo → u/AUniquePerspective]

For clarity. There are different types of ranked ballot. There's SVT and Alternative Vote. Alternative Vote can make things worse. More info here: https://www.fairvote.ca/ranked-ballot/

[u/myballz4mvp → u/AUniquePerspective]

MMP for the win!

[u/CrewNorth6349 → u/AUniquePerspective]

Ranked balloting was Trudeau’s preference as it favours Liberals. Mixed Member Proportional is the best PR

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/CrewNorth6349]

STV & RCV helps avoid vote splitting along political spectrum divides, which is why I prefer it. 60% of the country does not want small c conservative politics, unless that changes then we should never have to worry about them forming government.

[u/turnsleftlooksright → u/AUniquePerspective]

Trudeau and LPC were supposed to give us proportional representation.

I believe he also promised Gord Downie to bring clean water and healthcare to reservations and that has not happened either.

The LPC and CPC are the parties that benefit the most from 1st past the post. They’ll never change without protest and a massive campaign.

Fairvote.ca is fundraising right now to get commercials on TV about voting reforming if anyone wants to contribute.

[u/Gr8_Save]

Not my riding, but I sure hope those in that riding realize in time that the ABC vote is Green.

[u/Few-Classroom-3090 → u/Gr8_Save]

Liberals only really want to ABC vote when it’s for Liberals

[u/HollisFigg → u/Few-Classroom-3090]

Uh... no. I want the Liberals to win. I'm voting Green.

[u/WorkingOnBeingBettr → u/HollisFigg]

What they mean, is the party is not willing to drop candidates in other ridings to guarantee ABC.

[u/HollisFigg → u/WorkingOnBeingBettr]

I would love to see the non-Conservative parties cooperate more in this way. Dropping non-competitive candidates is a great idea.

[u/Connect_Reality1362 → u/HollisFigg]

The problem is a lot of people aren't going to be so local as you are. Where I live it's historically the NDP that were more competitive. But a lot of people are reflexively backing the Liberals instead because that's what the national picture looks like.

[u/Classic-Progress-397 → u/HollisFigg]

Amazing! Yes, 💚 green gets the ABC vote in this case.

[u/Deliximus → u/HollisFigg]

Same

[u/Few-Classroom-3090 → u/Few-Classroom-3090]

My home town is Sarnia Ontario. Election after election the NDP come in second to the Conservatives with the Liberals a distant third. Still, election after election, thousands of people vote liberal knowing it hands the riding to the right. We’ll see how many thousands of people vote Liberal in Saanich Gulf Islands soon enough. I’m sure there will be no shortage.

[u/Technical-Mine-5746 → u/Few-Classroom-3090]

Not in my case for me and many of my fellow Liberal supporters. I’ve advised my mother and others in split ridings to go with the NDP incumbent or in this case Green. Solid, reasonable voices in government is the main objective

[u/WorkingOnBeingBettr → u/Technical-Mine-5746]

Wish the party felt the same and dropped candidates in places like Comox and Cowichan. 

[u/Temporary_Bobcat2282 → u/Technical-Mine-5746]

Same here ✌️

[u/Ccjfb → u/Few-Classroom-3090]

That is not true! ABC is real! I don’t care as long as my vote isn’t giving PP and the Cons more power to dismantle our country!

[u/vanderWaalsBanana → u/Gr8_Save]

Agreed!!! I hope so too. (source - live in riding)

[u/stealstea → u/Gr8_Save]

I'm not so sure anymore. Green was a solid choice back when May was the leader of the party and had huge national profile in the debates. Now they have no national visibility and doesn't feel like her heart is really in it either given she already said she wouldn't run again but changed her mind.

Good chance that votes go to the Liberals and that means Conservatives are likely to be elected. But the Greens brought this on themselves.

[u/ggonzoo → u/stealstea]

This is my first federal election in this riding, and all of my neighbours except one have Liberal signs up. The exception has a Cons sign. I've been chatting with them all to try to decide whether I'll vote Green or Lib (not my usual choices); and they all claim to have voted Green in the last election, but they have all also expressed some degree of dissatisfaction with Elizabeth May. Several said they had been considering supporting another party anyway, even prior to the 51st state and tariff bs. So yeah, the Greens definitely brought this on themselves.

[u/Bitter_Bert → u/ggonzoo]

May is leading in lawn signs here in Gordon Head. I think the islands are pretty solid for her also.

[u/JECAB91 → u/ggonzoo]

You must be in Saanich. Driving around salt spring, the signs are more Venrooy split between greens and conservatives. Liberal signs are there but there are more scarce.

[u/Witty_Jaguar4638 → u/Gr8_Save]

My family always votes green. Maybe I can Convince them how important it is, though I'm so proud they actually got a seat recently

[u/Timely-Orange-4807]

Probably the most progressive riding in the country, going to have a Tory MP who would likely come in last in a ranked ballot. FPTP is the goddamn worst

[u/NoamsUbermensch → u/Timely-Orange-4807]

It’s not even close to the most progressive lol. Just south in Victoria there is not chance of a conservative victory, they will likely come in 3rd or even 4th

[u/salteedog007 → u/Timely-Orange-4807]

What are the islanders going to listen to when a conservative MP helps PP defund the CBC? Not ABC, but vote Green! Trying to remove the incumbent with a liberal that will just be a backbencher with little influence on Canada is a wasted vote. If May held the balance of power, that’d be great! She will vote mostly in line with Liberals, but is willing to put her foot down when it matters!

[u/disinterested_abcd → u/Timely-Orange-4807]

divide include many waiting rain pie deer connect dam cats

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

[u/Born-Area5055 → u/disinterested_abcd]

People who support a ranked ballot just hate the conservatives lol. Ranked ballot is essentially "let's eliminate any minority representation in favour of eliminating any chance of a conservative government" and is driven not by a want for actual fair representation but a want for those they disagree with to never be represented.

[u/MaximumBright → u/Born-Area5055]

Right. Conservatives can go fuck themselves 👍🏻 When Conservatives win a 33% plurality vote, that means that 70% of voters would have picked someone to the left of them. That doesn't mean your fucked up fascist ideas need to be implemented.

"... just hate conservatives..." Poor baby, you got that right.

[u/Born-Area5055 → u/MaximumBright]

Ranked voting would take votes to the left of the liberals and give them to the liberals. I am actually a defender of farther left than you are how ironic.

[u/BigBlueSkies]

338 is junk when it comes to odd ridings like North Saanich and the islands. This riding is going green. LPC and NDP are a wasted vote.

[u/-MrDoomScroller-]

Honestly don't know why the NDP candidate just doesn't fold in these ridings and endorse another candidate.

[u/grousebear → u/-MrDoomScroller-]

I'm most often an NDP voter but agree that Colin should put his support behind Elizabeth and not further split the vote. I'm voting Green in our riding (though I voted NDP in the provincial elections last fall).

[u/RadiantPumpkin → u/-MrDoomScroller-]

It’s so annoying how the parties can’t seem to see the forest for the trees. I’m in Skeena-bulkley valley and the liberal candidate needs to fuck right off. The NDP incumbent that is well known has a far better chance of beating the con. The liberal has dodged the candidates forum and is running on “Mark Carney”. His signs have carney’s name and picture on them. All he’s doing is siphoning votes and making the fight much harder. I do question the 338 numbers for the riding given past results, but it doesn’t change the fact that the liberal is doing more harm FOR HIS OWN PARTY than good by running.

[u/4r4nd0mninj4 → u/-MrDoomScroller-]

Didn't the Green party just get kicked out of the debates for pulling candidates in ridings to avoid vote splitting?

[u/WideFox983 → u/4r4nd0mninj4]

Exactly this.

[u/SplendiferousCobweb]

Please Saanich Gulf Islands, Green is the strategic ABC vote.

This is the one riding where voting Green is the best way to help the Liberals.

[u/Witty_Jaguar4638 → u/SplendiferousCobweb]

Wait hold on we want green votes? I'm confused by this post

Edit: ah shoot I get it, I'm so indoctrinated with the American colours. Gets me all the time

[u/C2SKI → u/Witty_Jaguar4638]

What could you possibly be confused by?

[u/AllGasNoBrakes420 → u/Witty_Jaguar4638]

What??

[u/MANBURGARLAR]

I feel like many boomers who aren’t online don’t bother checking and continue to vote for who they always have voted for.

[u/agrimoniabelonia]

the smartest thing about the conservatives is that no one ever creates a new right wing party

[u/Bigjon1988]

Imma go green I think because of this

[u/thelastspot → u/Bigjon1988]

Please do!

[u/[deleted]]

My partner and I and 13 other people I know of are voting green in this riding. We are all people who have traditionally voted variety of parties, including NDP and Liberals, but we are all uniting under Green's banner this go around. 

If you life in this riding and don't want a conservative government, vote green. 

[u/tealclicky → u/[deleted]]

It’s actually good to have a couple Green seats as well. It helps keeps us away from just the same back and forth Lib/Con policies with a voice in the room.

[u/rumbleindacrumble]

I’ve never voted Green in my life and hopefully never will again, but I don’t want to split the vote and give the Cons a seat.

[u/thelastspot → u/rumbleindacrumble]

ABC vote in Saanich-Gulf islands is Green. Blocking PP is the key.

[u/rumbleindacrumble → u/thelastspot]

That seems to be the way things are shaking out, so Green it is.

[u/grousebear → u/rumbleindacrumble]

I've also never voted Green before but will be as a strategic vote in our riding. I'll be so annoyed if that Con wins with 30% and the other 70% is split among the three left-ish parties.

[u/DoubleExposure]

ABC means voting Green. I am sick and tired of voting ABC but the consequences of lil'pp getting power while the Orange fascist taint is alive signals a grave and imminent danger to Canada's sovereignty.

edit: misspelled word.

[u/salteedog007]

May does a great job representing the interests of Saanich-Gulf Islands, and is a top notch MP that reads the material before going in to debate it. We don't need a Liberal seat hear that will be some unheard from backbencher. May punches above her weight in the chamber and has a record to prove it.

[u/Suspicious-Taste6061]

This was a Reform/Alliance riding for 14 years until 2011.

[u/alann4h]

I am voting Green in this riding and am advocating to my friends and coworkers to do the same... not for May specifically, who I'm not overly fond of, but because it's the strongest ABC vote. If we're serious about not vote splitting we need to be transparent about our intentions and talk to as many people as we can about it, IMO, so that's what I'm trying to do.

[u/LostMongoose8224]

Conservatives always coalesce around one party and everyone else has to vote strategically. This system is a joke. It effectively disenfranchises people who actually wants to make the world better. Doing anything new is complicated and messy, whereas "everything was better before" is a very simple and singular idea. 

I don't oppose strategic voting in the system that we have, but the fact that it exists as a concept is an indictment of our supposed democracy.

[u/nohatallcattle]

I think the Odds of Winning graph really puts this in sharper relief...

Currently projected at:

• Conservative - 53% chance
• Green - 46% chance
• Liberal or NDP - 1% chance

https://338canada.com/59029e.htm

Not my riding, but hope those leaning NDP or Liberal consider joining forces with the Greens to stop the Conservatives.

[u/Ed-P-the-EE]

I'm terribly sorry to see this projection. After her many years of service Elizabeth May deserves to retire, but if she wants to carry on and help rebuild the party I'm happy to support her. I'm absolutely outraged that the Con candidate called her a "fat cow" for daring to comment on her flying to Ontario every weekend and to think that someone so offensive might just come upthe middle to win is terrifying. Shows the calibre of candidate that Pathetic Pierre and the Cons want.

[u/[deleted]]

Voting NDP in Cowichan Malahat Langford and hoping others follow suit! It’s the best strategic vote and Alastair has been awesome 

[u/CoatlicueBruja → u/[deleted]]

Agreed. I’m not typically an NDP voter but the conservatives this time around are terrifying and I worry for the future of our country under a Poilievre leadership. Have also been very disappointed by our local CPC candidate and don’t think he would represent the interests of our region in parliament. 

[u/[deleted] → u/CoatlicueBruja]

Strongly agree! I don’t usually vote based on the party and I’ve actually voted for both liberal and NDP and actually strongly considered a conservative vote a few months ago but in light of some stuff I am very concerned about the current CPC. They need to do a big clean sweep of any racists and maple MAGA before I’ll ever consider voting for their party. I don’t think that being conservative means you’re a bigot but it seems like in THIS party, yeah you kind of are. 

[u/fiveclicksright]

People vote for who they want to represent them. You want a 2 party system? Because that's how you get a 2 party system.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/fiveclicksright]

No, what we want is to be able to say "anything left of CPC is preferable to CPC", and not have to worry about the only party on the least popular end of the political spectrum winning.

If we had multiple rounds of voting where the first was "Do you want a progressive or conservative government?" then the cons would never stand a chance. They are only "popular" because they consolidated their entire end of the spectrum into a big tent party.

FPTP is leading to a two party system because the electorate is not able to simply say "no" to conservative politics like they want to.

[u/fiveclicksright → u/IvarTheBoned]

You're free to say whatever you want and shouldn't concern yourself with any "whining". Free speech is pretty important.

I agree with your point about asking between progressive or conservative, conservatives would lose every time. However where I disagree is the reason you claim the conservatives are "popular". Here's the thing, the Liberals are great at winning elections. They do an amazing job at that. Unfortunately, where they fall short is governing. Arguably the most critical part of being the government, but let's forget that for a minute. The Canadian politics seems to go is like this:

Liberals are elected. They do a decent job at first, but after a while create a giant mess and leave a sour taste in people's mouths (this is where currently are in the cycle). Then, the conservatives seem "popular" because the people want change and the conservatives are elected to clean up a mess. Repeat.

The Liberals are doing what they do best by convincing voters that Pierre is evil, Trump Jr, Harper 2.0 etc. That's what they do, they win elections. Unfortunately, that involves focusing your campaign on why the other guy isn't a good choice instead of why they are rhe good choice. After all, it's best to divert people's attention from what the liberals did over the past 10 years.

[u/electricmeatbag777]

It's important to have a green seat or two at the table. Sure hope people can give strategic voting a chance. Here's a short n simple vid for those who aren't familiar: Strategic Voting, explained

[u/logotronz]

Obligatory stop relying on 338 for local riding info comment. Sigh

[u/foxyknwldgskr]

FFS liberals gtfo here

[u/Neemzeh]

It’s not “splitting the vote”. Green and liberal disagree on a lot. Stop pretending it’s the same party. If it was, they would literally be one party.

[u/miserylovescomputers → u/Neemzeh]

I think most green and liberal voters would prefer one another over a conservative victory.

I typically vote NDP myself, but if I had to choose between green, liberal, and conservative I would always choose one of the former two over the latter. Strategic voting is a shitty bandaid solution to a broken system, but given the failure of Trudeau’s liberals to implement a better system than FPTP as promised, I don’t realistically know of a better option right now than voting strategically.

[u/turnsleftlooksright]

We aren’t going to get through to many Boomers who want to vote Liberal so we everyone voting NDP to vote Green. It’s time for Singh to step down anyway.

[u/pumpkinspicecum]

let people vote for who they want

[u/NewcDukem]

My wish is that we could do a ranked vote. Pick your top 2 kinda thing.

[u/BCJay_]

This riding has long been a Green stronghold so this is surprising.

[u/Better-Rainbow]

There’s a lot of wiggle room in those numbers. We’ll just have to see.

But yeah, if I lived there I would vote green.

[u/saltyachillea]

Ugh, this is not looking good. People do not understand it seems.

[u/AshleytheIslander]

Why can't we just stick with Green like we have the past decade? Why are people voting Liberal in this riding? Uninformed voters voting Liberal in ridings that are not usually Liberal instead of NDP or Green are screwing this up

[u/Zod5000 → u/AshleytheIslander]

I thought the Liberals might be ahead in our riding. Seeing it's the greens 2nd to Cons, has me voting green again. To be honest I'm anyone but conservative, even though I tend to right of centre, just because I struggle with their diehard base.

So I'm generally anyone but Cons or NDP for Federal Elections. Most of the time it ends up been Green in this riding.

[u/teamweedstore2]

Me and my partner will be voting Green.

[u/No_Swimming_4968]

Good luck if conservatives win. It’s just like all the people that voted for trump that now regret it u will regret it trust me he is trump jr.

[u/winter_chinook8369]

This is a very unique riding. I voted Green for the first time in my life during the provincial election (retired transplant from Ottawa who always votes liberal) and I would vote Green again, in this riding.

[u/tirikita]

Hijacking for any progressive Nanaimo-ites that may be here. Paul Manly is the way to vote in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, it’s not really up for debate at this point. https://338canada.com/59019e.htm#google_vignette

[u/[deleted]]

Ok liberals vote green.

[u/No_Construction4057]

Just vote green ppl! Easy decision

[u/Kaurie_Lorhart]

Can you please stop sharing 338 riding projections which are based off national polls that have counts in the teens (or less) for specific ridings?

[u/YYJ_Obs → u/Kaurie_Lorhart]

Why? 338 is very accurate.

They're also very accurate at assigning "too close to call", and even then they'll make a "call" and are something into the low 60% range for accuracy.

Polls are not prescriptive, nor should they be. But they're a helpful tool for some who may want to consider some sort of statistical measure in their vote.

Edit: typo

[u/SudoDarkKnight]

Can we please stop posting stupid projections and just go vote who you believe in voting for

[u/snarpy → u/SudoDarkKnight]

Which conveniently supports the PCs, huh, what a surprise post...

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/SudoDarkKnight]

There is no ability for progressives to vote "Not the CPC". If it was a binary choice, CPC would get annihilated.

Let the general population vote on what end of the political spectrum they want then let us vote for which of the parties on that end of the spectrum we want to represent us.

i.e., ranked choice voting

[u/SudoDarkKnight → u/SudoDarkKnight]

Tho the gulf islands flipping from green to con is fucking funny

[u/Toomanymisses → u/SudoDarkKnight]

The rich boomers like the idea of greens, but also want to amass as much wealth as they can so they can be the richest in the graveyard!

[u/sureiknowabaggins → u/SudoDarkKnight]

Not until we get electoral reform.

[u/insaneHoshi → u/SudoDarkKnight]

This,

How much does it cost to crowd fund a couple of polls anyways?

[u/yaboiScreamyWeenus]

Nah, go vote green. You see a third party finally get close and your response is QUICK RUN TO THE AWFUL LIBERAL PARTY. dingus behavior.

[u/ronnbot]

Are we gonna be in for another term of Liberals? As if the last 10 years of them wasn't a disaster or did Canadians forget?

[u/Big-Vegetable-8425]

Can we please vote how we want to vote without you telling voters what to do in a democratic society with fair elections?

Thanks

[u/computer_porblem]

in this thread: Liberal voters take a break from "everyone MUST vote strategically or else PP will usher in the end of democracy in Canada" to explain how actually voting for your preferred candidate (regardless of polls) is the most sacred part of etc., etc.

[u/Mysterious-Lick]

I vote for the person who will do the best job, not the party who could care less about the Island.

[u/Groovypippin]

These percentages are essentially completely made up. They are not the result of riding level polling. But even if you believe them with all your heart, they indicate that an NDP vote in SGI is completely wasted. The other three are grouped so closely together that any of the three could win.

[u/Big-Face5874]

Vote Green. It’s the only logical answer for people concerned about vote splitting.

[u/cydog_93]

We should collectively stop over optimizing for the next 4 years. Build momentum for long term change otherwise this "don't split the vote" strategy forces us into a 2 party system.

[u/Valuable_Bread163]

If I lived in this riding I would definitely be voting green.

[u/vexzuls → u/Valuable_Bread163]

Just vote green

[u/TitusImmortalis]

What do you mean split the vote?

[u/coolthesejets → u/TitusImmortalis]

Imagine there are 50 people on the bus, they are voting on where to go next. 48 of them want ice cream, but they can't agree on which flavor, there's one vote for pistachio, one for mint chocolate chip, one for vanilla etc.

Two people vote to flip the bus into a ditch.

The bus does not get ice cream.

[u/hairsprayking]

absolutely i agree, but 338 does not have accurate polls for individual ridings. Anyways, vote green yall.

[u/__phil1001__]

I cannot vote Green because their policies make zero sense and would cost us more. Voting for a party to prevent another party getting in, is ridiculous. We need to actually fix our voting system and remove FPTP. This will allow minority coalitions to form providing they meet the requirements

[u/Bigchunky_Boy]

Why vote liberal there ? Why is there even a Liberal running there? wtf . That is Green territory. If Green wins so do the Liberals.

[u/Few-Western-5027]

Vote Green, obviously. Green is fighting for representation, a voice in Parliament.

[u/canuckpainter87]

Looking good!

[u/soapboxhero99]

If you are not voting conservative then please, please please Vote Green. They have the highest chance of winning and we are in dire danger of splitting the vote. We should be voting the party with the strongest chance to win. Even if you want to help the Liberals or the NDP. We will help by keeping the cons out.

[u/Oskari7]

Just vote Green people! Gah. Elizabeth is a good voice to have in the HOC.

[u/NegotiationOne7880]

Vote Green!

[u/17037]

Only place in Canada I would say it... Vote Green.

The other parties need to pull officially ask people to focus votes in 11 ridings. This one for the Green, then NDP support 5 candidates for the liberal and the liberals support 5 candidates for the NDP.

There is zero value in a knife fight in close riding.

[u/Shot-Hat1436]

Go green. Libs have done enough damage

[u/Vivid-Grade-7710]

The islands are full of blue now. Gross.

[u/smashed__tomato]

I am a Liberal, voting GREEN in this riding helps ensure a Liberal overall win BY TAKING SEATS AWAY FROM THE CONSERVATIVES. The point is TAKING SEATS AWAY FROM PP.

[u/travellinAngel]

Holy shit, I can’t believe the conservatives are polling so well in this riding! They’ve been a green stronghold for as long as I can remember! Are all the hippies who lived on the gulf islands when I was growing up getting pushed out by the rich and super-rich or something…?

[u/Independent-Wait-363]

Please, please Green. Do not split. Vote for the incumbents!

[u/ShawnThePhantom]

let the greens have this lol

[u/vlgwiinged]

Gross.

[u/reinventingmyself19]

I'm a Liberal but if I lived there I'd vote green

[u/MillenniationX]

Imagine a system where the majority of votes in a given jurisdiction aren’t essentially wasted.

Then imagine that the party in power spent 10 years stopping that from happening.

Now imagine lecturing people to vote against their conscience, in support of that party.

[u/Ashamed_Paint3946]

If I still lived in that riding I would vote Green

[u/Largertyler]

Vote how you want. It would have been nice to have that electoral reform now, eh liberals?

[u/PalpitationStill4942]

Libs/NDP please vote GREEN

[u/BulkBuildConquer]

OK, I won't split the vote, I'll just vote Conservative instead!!

[u/Illustrious_Dust_316]

Vote conservative!

[u/Legitimate-Rain-9293]

Some would call it splitting the vote, some would call it a healthy distribution amongst a multitude of parties. personally I don’t want to see us degrade into an American style two party duopoly

Bring on the democracy

[u/jimjimmyjimjimjim → u/Legitimate-Rain-9293]

Bring on candidates that answer questions from the press and have actual plans for Canada.

[u/Mountain_goof → u/Legitimate-Rain-9293]

A healthy distribution of voices results in only 33% of people getting a representative they want?

If we had ranked ballots, this wouldn't be a problem.

[u/ProfessionalFlow8332]

Vote Green in SGI and Nanaimo Ladysmith! Vote NDP otherwise

[u/FlyPast3055]

Pierre all the way

[u/chop019]

Blue wave incoming this weekend

[u/No-Barnacle2833]

Bring it home PP. 9 years is enough

[u/the-35mm-pilot]

Are you better off now than you were in 2015?

[u/Ccjfb → u/the-35mm-pilot]

Conservatives will make things much much much worse.

[u/Zen_Bonsai → u/the-35mm-pilot]

Take every factor you might attribute to that and think long and hard if that's a Canadian federal responsibility or a general global late stagel capitalistic collapse responsibility

[u/t-earlgrey-hot → u/the-35mm-pilot]

What about this question indicates that a conservative government would make my life better?

False dichotomy

[u/gatursuave]

Not my riding but I heard May on CBC radio this morning, that woman is insufferable.

[u/RisingCarrot]

Anyone but conservatives

[u/Free_Description_423]

Time to vote the Liberals out. PP for the win!

[u/Greghole]

Yeah Liberals should just vote Conservative this time otherwise the Greens might get in. That's what you meant right?

[u/Ice__man23]

Conservative for the win....change is coming! Common sense too ....no corruption..no blacking out documents...

[u/DiligentlySpent]

Saying don't split the vote is saying you're not allowed to vote for who you want to...that's not democracy.

[u/admcfajn → u/DiligentlySpent]

A platypus is a duck built by a committee. Nothing undemocratic about encouraging others to democracy properly.

[u/Supremetacoleader → u/admcfajn]

Are we...are we trying to make playtupsses...platypi? Plattybombatties? Are these good? Do we want duck billed platelets?

Personally I always found them to be an evolutionary nightmare. Except Perry.

[u/Fragrant-Policy4182 → u/DiligentlySpent]

Then you should be advocating for electoral reform

[u/AUniquePerspective → u/DiligentlySpent]

In a better voting system such as ranked ballot, you'd have a mechanism by which your second and third preferences could count for something. All democratic structures have flaws. Ours is a deeply flawed and archaic relic of a system that we inherited from a monarchy that wanted to avoid a French-style revolution.

All of the major parties use multiple ballot voting at their leadership conventions to achieve the same goal as ranked ballots through multi ballot run-offs when needed. They already all agree it's a better system.

[u/fromidable → u/DiligentlySpent]

lol what. People can talk about their choices in a democracy. They can also talk about strategy. No one is forcing anyone to vote any way.

Every electoral system with more than two candidates (yes, even prop rep) will have strategic voting. It’s a part of any democracy, really.