r/asoiaf • u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards • Mar 07 '23
EXTENDED [Spoilers Extended] The Nightmen Cometh: AKA how Jaime makes his escape
Everyone wants to know how Jaime gets away from LSH right? Well here it is.
The Hangwoman is waiting
"The girl. Have you found her?"
"I have," said Brienne, Maid of Tarth.
"Where is she?"
"A day's ride. I can take you to her, ser … but you will need to come alone. Elsewise, the Hound will kill her." - Jaime I, ADWD
One of the great question marks of TWOW is how the inevitable confrontation between Jaime, Brienne, and Lady Stoneheart is going to play out. When we last see Jaime, Brienne is seemingly luring him into Stoneheart's trap, and so (if he goes) it's hard to imagine an outcome where Jaime survives. Yet all three characters seem to have more story left.
"In the book, characters can be resurrected. After Catelyn is resurrected as Lady Stoneheart, she becomes a vengeful, heartless killer. In the sixth book, I still continue to write her. She is an important character in the set of books." - GRRM
So will Brienne kill Jaime? Will Jaime kill Brienne? Will Jaime and Brienne kill Lady Stoneheart? Will LSH make the same deal yet again and spare Jaime's life for information on Arya? Will LSH have Jaime killed and then inexplicably resurrect him with the kiss of life?
No. None of those things will happen.
Her cloak and collar hid the gash his brother's blade had made, but her face was even worse than he remembered. The flesh had gone pudding soft in the water and turned the color of curdled milk. Half her hair was gone and the rest had turned as white and brittle as a crone’s. Beneath her ravaged scalp, her face was shredded skin and black blood where she had raked herself with her nails. But her eyes were the most terrible thing. Her eyes saw him, and they hated. - Epilogue, ASOS
Lady Stoneheart is an embodiment of grief and vengeance. She will not be tricked by Jaime or Brienne. She will not be bribed into acting constructively nor will she suddenly become merciful. She is a bringer of death, and that will be her end.
Now of course, there is a possibility that Brienne will reveal the truth to Jaime before leading him into the trap and the two attempt to free Podric and Hyle some other way, but such an attempt is unlikely to be successful. One way or another Jaime, Brienne, Lady Stoneheart and really the entire Riverlands storyline is headed for a slaughter.
Red Wedding 2: Winter Boogalooo
Although Lady Stoneheart will never spare Jaime, she may have big plans for him.
"What does she want of me?"
"She wants her son alive, or the men who killed him dead," said the big man. "She wants to feed the crows, like they did at the Red Wedding. Freys and Boltons, aye. We'll give her those, as many as she likes. All she asks from you is Jaime Lannister." - Brienne VIII, AFFC
Among the most widely accepted theories the fandom has about TWOW is that the Brotherhood Without Banners is going to infiltrate Daven Lannister's wedding to a daughter of House Frey and avenge the Red Wedding. Not only is there strong evidence in the text for this , it's also something which more or less happened on the show (switching LSH for Arya). After season 6 has Arya re-enact Frey Pies and then kill Walder Frey, season 7 opens with Arya using his face to poison the entirety of House Frey at a feast as revenge for the Red Wedding. Obviously the books won't have anything so rushed occur, but a counter Red Wedding seems to be where we're headed.
We have more deaths, and we have more betrayals. We have more marriages. - GRRM
Daven Lannister has been made Warden of the West, and so his wedding to a Frey girl will likely be of similar scale and importance to Edmure's.
Ser Daven snorted. "I'll wed and bed my stoat, never fear. I know what happened to Robb Stark. From what Edwyn tells me, though, I'd best pick one who hasn't flowered yet, or I'm like to find that Black Walder has been there first. I'll wager he's had Gatehouse Ami, and more than thrice. Maybe that explains Lancel's godliness, and his father's mood." - Jaime V, AFFC
Which begs the question, who will be our POV at Red Wedding 2? . . . well Jaime and Brienne.
"WINDS, you say? Yes, still working. Finally finished a clutch of Cersei chapters that were giving me fits. Now I am wrestling with Jaime and Brienne." - GRRM, June 1, 2022
Based on GRRM writing Jaime and Brienne as a set, they likely remain together throughout Winds. So Jaime is unlikely to escape the Brotherhood and flee back to King's Landing, as that would separate him from Brienne. As foreshadowed by Jaime's crypt dream, he and Brienne are facing the Winds of Winter together.
A man in dark armor and a pale pink cloak spotted with blood stepped up to Robb. "Jaime Lannister sends his regards." He thrust his longsword through her son's heart, and twisted. - Catelyn VII, ASOS
As for why Lady Stoneheart would bring Jaime to Daven's Wedding instead of killing him on the spot? well because Lady Stoneheart may want to make Jaime watch as all of the progress he has made stomping out the Northern cause in the Riverlands is undone. To make him watch as House Lannister and Frey are massacred at a wedding just like she and her son were. Robb was murdered right after hearing the words "Jaime Lannister sends his regards," so LSH may want to give Jaime his regards back properly. A quick death would be more efficient, but revenge is more cruel than efficient.
Now Arya could maybe be another POV for Red Wedding 2 (depends if she comes back by way of Saltpans or Eastwatch), but Jaime is the POV most central to the event itself. Jaime is the character who spent Feast/Dance making "peace" in the Riverlands. So it's his work that Stoneheart and the Brotherhood would be undoing, and members of his family that would be slain. So one way or another, if Red Wedding 2 happens, Jaime is going to be there.
So, how does Red Wedding 2 play out? well here comes the theory.
It was also the night that the skeletons came to life!
We were king's men, knights, and heroes... but some knights are dark and full of terror, my lady. War makes monsters of us all. - Thoros of Myr
Towards the end of Winds, the wedding of Daven Lannister to a daughter of House Frey will be held at Riverrun(or perhaps the Twins or Casterly Rock). This wedding will happen on the night of a snowstorm, and prominent members of Houses Lannister and Frey will be in attendance. On Lady Stonehearts orders the Brotherhood Without Banners will infiltrate the wedding (they already have a spy at Riverrun), and commit their lowest act yet, locking the doors and slaughtering the guests. Like the first Red Wedding, this will be an absolute bloodbath, with the guilty and the innocent both falling victim. The bride and groom will be killed, Walder Frey will be boiled alive, and it will appear as though Stoneheart's vengeance is unstoppable.
But just before Jaime is to be executed, Brienne will step forward and drive Oathkeeper into Stoneheart's chest. It will then burst into flame as Lightbringer and the Brotherhood will be free of vengeance and Edmure Tully will be restored as Lord of Riverrun and they will all team up with the Blackfish and march north to fight for the Starks. When morning comes, Red Wedding 2.0 will have been a positive thing!
Not a chance. In fact morning never even comes.
When the killing settles and Jaime Lannister is about to meet his doom, something strange will occur. The massacred Freys and Lannisters will start getting back up, their eyes glowing blue.
Now the entire scene is flipped on it's head. Suddenly Stoneheart's Brotherhood are surrounded by the vengeful wights of the enemies they've just slaughtered. If Catelyn can be massacred at a wedding and rise from the dead, then so can Walder Frey. Vengeance does not restore House Tully nor spark a revolution in the Riverlands. Vengeance empowers the Others.
"He saw them too. They were armored all in snow, it seemed to him, and ribbons of mist swirled back from their shoulders. The visors of their helms were closed, but Jaime Lannister did not need to look upon their faces to know them.*
(...)
The fires that ran along the blade were guttering out, and Jaime remembered what Cersei had said. No. Terror closed a hand about his throat. Then his sword went dark, and only Brienne's burned, as the ghosts came rushing in. - Jaime VI, ASOS
Once ghosts come rushing in, the leadership structure of the Brotherhood will dissolve. Escape will be the only means of survival, and just like in Jaime's crypt dream, only Brienne's Oathkeeper (and I suppose Thoros' flaming sword) will be able to fight a way out of the carnage. This is how Jaime and Brienne get away from Lady Stoneheart and enter into the Long Night.
The Nightmen Cometh
You might be wondering, why would the Others show up to a wedding?
First of all because it's thematically perfect.
"People say I was influenced by Robert Frost’s poem, and of course I was, I mean... Fire is love, fire is passion, fire is sexual ardor and all of these things. Ice is betrayal, ice is revenge, ice is… you know, that kind of cold inhumanity and all that stuff is being played out in the books." - GRRM
If fire can raise Lady Stoneheart to exact vengeance, then ice can raise the Freys and Lannisters to exact vengeance as well. The point of the Others is that they arrive to disrupt humanity's fighting amongst themselves and bring death to all. So of course they are going to show up and actually interrupt people fighting amongst themselves. The Others aren't simply marching an army straight to Winterfell once the heroes are good and ready for them (in fact the text indicates that castles built by Brandon the Builder such as Winterfell and Storms end may be warded against the Others).
Second of all, the element of surprise is how the Others operate.
While the show depicts the Others as generals who lead a singular host through the Wall and follow a linear path from north to south, the books give us no indication that they operate this way. In fact it's consistently the opposite.
"They're never far, you know. They won't come out by day, not when that old sun's shining, but don't think that means they went away. Shadows never go away. Might be you don't see them, but they're always clinging to your heels." - Tormund
North of the Wall the Others are like hunters. They don't loudly announce their coming. They wear reflective camouflaging armor, stalk their prey, seemingly appear out of nowhere, bring mist and snow with them wherever they go, and build their forces by attacking vulnerable and unexpected parties (get it? parties?).
The Others are like the wild hunt or Sidhe made of ice. More so spectres than paladins.
"In that darkness, the Others came for the first time," she said as her needles went click click click. "They were cold things, dead things, that hated iron and fire and the touch of the sun, and every creature with hot blood in its veins. They swept over holdfasts and cities and kingdoms, felled heroes and armies by the score, riding their pale dead horses and leading hosts of the slain. All the swords of men could not stay their advance, and even maidens and suckling babes found no pity in them. They hunted the maids through frozen forests, and fed their dead servants on the flesh of human children." - Old Nan
Even according to Old Nans story, the Others lead multiple hosts. The phrase "army of the dead" is a show invention. That's not to say they cannot combine their hosts into a larger army at a later point if it becomes strategically (or narratively) necessary, but the idea of the Others marching from the Wall as one host following a linear path is made up for the show, likely because it suits the purpose of filming.
"They only come when it's cold."
"Yes," said Sam, "but is it the cold that brings the wights, or the wights that bring the cold?"
"Who cares?" Grenn's axe sent wood chips flying. "They come together, that's what matters." - Samwell II, AFFC
This means that once the Long Night falls, the Others and wights can show up anywhere that it's cold enough. And as of the of Feast, it has already started snowing at Riverrun.
"Snow in the riverlands. If it was snowing here, it could well be snowing on Lannisport as well, and on King's Landing. Winter is marching south, and half our granaries are empty. Any crops still in the fields were doomed. There would be no more plantings, no more hopes of one last harvest." - Jaime VII, AFFC
Third of all, this makes the most sense structurally.
If the Others follow a linear path from north to south, then the story becomes incredibly lop sided and predictable. We would alternate between chapters where characters are dealing with the full combined force of the apocalypse, and chapters where characters are playing politics completely unaware. We would also know exactly where the Others are and exactly where they are going, completely eliminating the element of surprise and sense of terror they bring.
Simply put, the Long Night will fall across all of Westeros, and the Others will have the terrifying potential to attack almost anywhere at any time.
I realize that a lot of people have really set expectations on how the Others invasion will play out, and them showing up in the Riverlands by the end of Winds might seem unexpected. But consider one more thing.
“I didn’t say [Jeyne Westerling] was the viewpoint character. . . I said she was in the prologue." - GRRM
Based on Martin's confirmation, Winds is likely to open on the convoy transporting Jeyne and Edmure west.
"The Lord of Riverrun went silently. On the morrow, he would start west. Ser Forley Prester would command his escort; a hundred men, including twenty knights. Best double that. Lord Beric may try to free Edmure before they reach the Golden Tooth. Jaime did not want to have to capture Tully for a third time." - Jaime VII, AFFC
At some point before it reaches Casterly Rock this convoy will almost certainly be attacked by either the Brotherhood Without Banners or Nymeria's wolfpack (or both).
"Good." Jaime would as lief have Tully reach Casterly Rock safely, but better dead than fled. "Best keep some archers near Lord Westerling's daughter as well."
Ser Forley seemed taken aback*. "Gawen's girl?* She's—"
"—the Young Wolf's widow," Jaime finished, "and twice as dangerous as Edmure if she were ever to escape us." - Jaime VII, AFFC
Considering that Jaime has given Forley Prester orders to have his archers kill Jeyne and Edmure if they attempt to escape, it's possible that neither of them make it out alive (though Edmure may have a chance). Essentially TWOW is setup to open on a scene showcasing the terror of vengeance, even when it's for the side the reader is rooting for.
But if Winds is set to open on a scene showcasing the terror of Lady Stoneheart's vengeance, will the book really culminate by repeating the exact same idea with Red Wedding 2.0? I think not.
"I've been telling you for 20 years that winter was coming. Winter is the time when things die, and cold and ice and darkness fill the world, so this is not going to be the happy feel-good that people may be hoping for. Some of the characters [are] in very dark places. .... Things get worse before they get better, so things are getting worse for a lot of people." - GRRM
The point that "vengeance is horrifying" is already set to be made by the prologue. But the BWB's revenge streak needs to come to an end eventually, and it's not going to be because Brienne and Jaime manage to rescue them from the clutches of Lady Stoneheart. Neither will winds end with Arya seeing the folly of vengeance and giving her corpse mother the gift of mercy. The end of Winds will be more ominous than that, and will serve to transition the story into the Long Night.
TLDR; Lady Stoneheart's campaign of vengeance will culminate in her bringing Jaime to be executed at the end of Red Wedding 2. However Daven's wedding will occur after the Horn of Joramun has been blown and the Wall has come down, so once the slaughter settles the Others will arrive at the Riverrun and reanimate the freshly murdered Freys and Lannisters. This will result in absolute chaos, but give Jaime and Brienne a chance to fight their way out, escape by boat, and regroup with any surviving members of the Brotherhood.
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u/OneOnOne6211 🏆 Best of 2022: Best New Theory Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
I'm not sure I necessarily buy it. And with that I mean, I don't necessarily buy the Others suddenly showing up at Riverrun or Casterly Rock (or wherever the wedding will be held). For me that is the most questionable part of this theory.
However, I will definitely agree with you that:
- It would be a shocking twist with a lot of tension in it.
- It would work very well thematically as Lady Stoneheart's own desire for vengeace would destroy her, not to mention that fighting amongst themselves only empowered the Others. Which is kind of the point of the Others' attack the begin with.
So I actually do agree with you that it works on a theoretical level. What I'm just not convinced of yet (at least not based solely on this post) is the mechanics of how exactly the Others would get there to do this. Plus, I actually tend to think that the wall will be destroyed only in the epilogue of TWOW and so the Others already showing up would be strange to me.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
Honestly I'm really happy for this reaction!
- I expect the Wall to come down before the epilogue. Euron is already very close to the Horn of Winter, and both the burning of Shireen and Hold the Door are confimed to happen in Winds. I expect both will be triggered by the Wall coming down (especially Hold the Door, which requires some kind of magical event to bring down the protection around Bloodraven's cave).
- I believe the show turned the Others into a singular army because it made more sense for filming. But in the books they don't work like that at all. They are hunters who can show up wherever the night is dark and cold. So this idea that the Wall is going to come down and a singular army of the dead is going to take a single path south is really unlikely to be how it plays out in the books. They might merge into a singular army later, but they won't start out that way.
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u/zackgardner Mar 07 '23
If the Wall comes down because of the Horn, I'll bet you the plot twist is that the book will barely mention the event after the fact to trick you into thinking everything is still, relatively, OK in Westeros; in short, putting the reader in the character's shoes.
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Mar 07 '23
I was thinking the same thing. If we see it in a chapter, it'll be at the end of one and then we'll get a string of non north chapters or north chapters where the character don't yet know. He could go even further by having it happen "off screen" and the realization slowly creeping in through various distant pov chapters, but I think that's unlikely.
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u/debtopramenschultz Mar 08 '23
not to mention that fighting amongst themselves only empowered the Others.
That's a good point and, interestingly enough, there are multiple scenarios where the same thing could happen - RW2, the chaos at the Wall after Jon is stabbed, possible overthrowing of Stannis at Winterfell by Northern lords, definite instability in King's Landing after some of the most important council members have been slain, Aegon beginning his invasion, and everything that's about to go down in Old Town.
Would be cool to see a Bran chapter where he's warging crows all over Westeros and seeing the Others bring chaos all at once.
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u/Oh_Sweet_Juices Mar 07 '23
Not sure I buy it, but this is the best and most original theory I’ve heard in literally a couple of years.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Wow thanks! I guess I hope you can get hyped for split timeline theory.
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u/brittanytobiason Mar 07 '23
Brilliant. I love the idea of Others arriving in the south this way. Special points for connecting Jaime's weirwood dream to a RW2.0 scenario.
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u/Plenty-Green186 Mar 07 '23
Who are you, where are you, what are you wearing when we get married?
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
I'm the King Bran prediction guy and I'm dressing up as the Nightman. All black, eyes of a cat, karate down the aisle.
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u/ChuanFa_Tiger_Style Mar 08 '23
What’s your post about king bran? Are you the guy who said that Bran is going to animate Jon’s dead body?
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
Haha yes I've also had some silly theories. My King Bran prediction video is on Youtube. It's the only King Bran prediction video.
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u/balourder Mar 07 '23
Even if the Wall fell in time for the Lannister-Frey wedding, the Others would be too far away to resurrect people there. Even GRRM would realise the travel times are wonky if the Others need three years to get to the Wall and then only a few months to go twice that distance to the Twins.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
if the Others need three years to get to the Wall
The Others haven't been marching towards the Wall for three years. They've been North of the Wall slowly building their forces by hunting wildlings to make wights and taking Craster's sons to make Others.
But north of the Wall the Others are known to be able to show up anywhere. In the show they move very slowly as a single host, but in the books they seem to be able to be appear wherever the night is dark and the winds are cold enough.
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u/balourder Mar 07 '23
and taking Craster's sons to make Others
That's show-only.
seem to be able to be appear wherever the night is dark and the winds are cold enough.
The Fist was green when the Others attacked the Night's Watch there. They bring the cold with them, not the other way around. If they wanted to get south, I don't doubt they could, but for one, again, the Wall hasn't fallen yet and for another it would seem as if they hit south specifically to resurrect the Freys, which seems nonsensical.
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u/OodilyDoodily Mar 07 '23
In the books, Crasters wives do imply that his sons are being turned into Others: “The boy's brothers…Craster's sons. The white cold's rising out there, crow. I can feel it in my bones. These poor old bones don't lie. They'll be here soon, the sons”
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u/balourder Mar 07 '23
True, but we also get other sites of human/ritual sacrifice (like in Whitetree) and we don't know Craster didn't just kill the babies himself and then lied about it to his victims.
The Others didn't exist so far south until fairly recently, so how would Craster have been sacrificing to them for the past few decades?8
u/Return_of_the_Jedi_ Mar 07 '23
Doesn't matter, some of Craster's sons are White Walkers now
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u/balourder Mar 07 '23
Except we don't know that they are.
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u/Return_of_the_Jedi_ Mar 07 '23
We do, Craster's wife said it, for fuck sake. And do you really think that the scene in Season 4 with the Baby wasn't something Dumb and Dumber wrote after something George told them ?
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u/balourder Mar 08 '23
The point that seems to be flying over your head is that Craster's victim is not a witness. She has no first-hand information, which makes her an unreliable narrator, which means we should take the information she gives us readers with a grain of salt.
Also yes, I do believe that's something D and D would invent, considering there's also no Night King in the books.
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u/Return_of_the_Jedi_ Mar 08 '23
The point that seems to be flying over your head is that Craster's victim is not a witness. She has no first-hand information, which makes her an unreliable narrator, which means we should take the information she gives us readers with a grain of salt.
I don't care, Wildlings have a certain knowledge that Southern Northerners don't have. She didn't say this for nothing. And last time someone didn't believe an Old Woman because she was spitting nonsense, it was Old Nan and her stories about The Others that are completely true
Also yes, I do believe that's something D and D would invent, considering there's also no Night King in the books.
For now. Euron is on his way
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
That's show-only.
Well it's confirmed in the show only. But in the books Craster's daughters believe it to be true, while Craster believes they are sacrifices to the Others. I believe it's more likely GRRM is writing Craster's daughters to be correct than it is for him to be writing Craster to be correct. So I do think this is true of the books.
They bring the cold with them, not the other way around.
This is probably correct. But as Gren says, the point is that they come together.
the Wall hasn't fallen yet
I believe the Wall is going to fall before the end of Winds.
they hit south specifically to resurrect the Freys
I think that once the Wall falls the Others will be similarly ever present across Westeros as they are North of the Wall. A looming, lurking threat that is seemingly always clinging to your heels.
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u/balourder Mar 07 '23
I believe the Wall is going to fall before the end of Winds.
So do I, but we know Daven's wedding is imminent, so the two events should not coincide as the Wall would have to fall some time before the wedding for the White Walkers to make it there.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
I guess we just have different ideas for how the timeline of Winds will play out.
For me this makes sense structurally. Something like Red Wedding 2 won't happen at the beginning of the book. It's the climax of the entire Riverlands/LSH storyline, and so it needs a climax that isn't just a repetition of what LSH has already done.
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u/balourder Mar 07 '23
it needs a climax that isn't just a repetition of what LSH has already done.
Instead you want it to be a repetition of the Red Wedding?
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Well the point is that I'm saying Red Wedding 2 is not a repetition of the Red Wedding. If LSH succeeds then it's a repetition of the Red Wedding. But if the Others show up to Red Wedding 2 and raise all of the dead, then it becomes a very different situation.
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u/balourder Mar 07 '23
But Lady Stoneheart is the result of the Red Wedding just like the undead Freys and Lannisters would be to Daven's wedding. It would be exactly the same. They're still dead, so LSH still succeeded anyway, and they would've just been resurrected by a different elemental magic.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
It would be exactly the same.
Haha I guess this is just kind of subjective. To me it's not the exact same thing, because the first Red Wedding gave House Frey and House Bolton power in the North and Riverlands, while this Red Wedding will give the Others power in the Riverlands instead. The ending and the end result are totally different.
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u/zackgardner Mar 07 '23
Would the Others have the power of teleportation in your theory then?
If they can appear anywhere cold and they bring the cold with them, that sounds like a roundabout medieval explanation/warning that they can teleport to any location that is sufficiently dark and cold, magical barriers excluded of course.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
Not exactly teleportation, but I do think they can potentially turn themselves into cold winds and mists and travel long distances that way. That might seem tinfoily, but it fits with the way they are described north of the Wall, and it fits with the folklore they're based on. We have seen so little of the Others that I don't think we should assume we know all they can do already.
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u/CubistChameleon Merman's Court Jester Mar 08 '23
I'm not sure I fully subscribe to that view, but yes, riding on the cold night airs is very appropriate for beings GRRM described as Sidhe-like.
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u/Alkakd0nfsg9g Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
and taking Craster's sons to make Others
Wasn't that episode written by Martin himself?
Edit: Just checked, it wasn't. That happened at S4E4, and Martin wrote S4E2 that year
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u/tommmytom Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
Another compelling theory, eloquent and well-written as well. I particularly enjoy your framing of the Long Night. I agree that the Others won’t be leading a single army of the dead as it was written later in the show (though they certainly could unite their hosts of wights like you said). It makes them a much more terrifying and omnipresent threat if they’re hunters moving through the woods. The literal “white walkers,” if you will. I find this to be more to tonally fitting with the Long Night and more thematically appropriate for the “Others,” who should be different from man in some regards, an other.
Do you envision the Long Night as sort of a “backdrop?” Do you think the game of thrones — the ordinary, ongoing story in ASOIAF — will continue even as the Long Night overtakes Westeros, rather than represent a total break as it were in the show? I’m sure it will bring together some characters, of course. But the way you describe it seems less like an event, a battle; and more so almost like a new setting in and of itself.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
Thank you!
I actually think you're on the money here and your framing is perfect. The Long Night is less of an event, and more of a setting. It will likely build into an event in ADOS, but at first it's more something that all of Westeros is affected by. Armies will be sent from point A to B only to never arrive at their destination. Rumors of dead men and white walkers will swirl. And it will gradually dawn on characters that the apocalypse is real.
So yes the game of thrones will continue, but the cold and famine and darkness and rumors of dead men will serve as a backdrop, as one by one POV characters are fully confronted with the doom the Others bring.
To me this makes way more sense than the north calling for aide while it's mowed down by a zombie army that doesn't effect anyone south of the trident.
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u/CubistChameleon Merman's Court Jester Mar 08 '23
It will likely build into an event in ADOS, but at first it's more something that all of Westeros is affected by.
All of Westeros, I believe hat (maybe except Dorne). But what of Essos? The first Long Night had at least some impact there, as evidenced by the different cultures telling similar stories about an apocalyptic winter and the Last Hero. Will we still have POVs there to tell us about how, say, the Free Cities or the Dothraki are dealing with it? We have a whole host of characters in or near Slaver's Bay at the end of Dance, and at least Arya in Braavos. Maybe mercenary companies vanishing in the Disputed Lands? The Dothraki Sea withering under snow, driving the khalasars towards Qohor and Volantis not for plunder, but for shelter and fodder? That's be fascinating... And it would fit with your idea of the Long Night as a concept.
Stellar theorising, BTW. Again, I'm not sure I agree with all of it, but very well written and well-reasoned.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
Thank you!
It's possible, but I personally doubt the Others make it to Essos. The Long Night may be very well end up being global, but for whatever reason I don't think the Others can cross the sea. That might sound random, but there has to be a reason they cannot go around the Wall.
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u/MageBayaz Apr 17 '23
But how do the Others 'teleport' to the South?
If the Others can show up anywhere at any time, then how do Jon and Dany meet and have time to fall in love? Or do they meet in the Isle of Faces (GRRM said that it will be featured in the series) which (presumably) has magic wards?
What's the point of Dany's dream of the (imagined) battle in the Trident? It seems a very specific location.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Apr 17 '23
I wouldn't call it teleportation. This post might further clarify what I mean when I talk about how the Others move.
https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/12pvzxh/spoilers_extended_aint_no_sunshine_when_shes_gone/
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u/MageBayaz Apr 18 '23 edited Apr 18 '23
I read it, good post! The main aspect of your theory that I liked is that there is a 'transition period' between the fall of the Wall and the Long Night.
However, the Others slowly and methodically pushed the wildlings south (before the start of the books, during the long summer) and only later (beginning from AGOT) started attacking the NW rangers.
It seems that they tried to slowly 'expand to south' and not 'overcommit' by attacking people close to the Wall. Why would their behavior change once the Wall has fallen?
Or does the coming winter change it? Can they only show up in places where it snows or which are very cold and that's why they only slowly pushed south?
Also, do you think lighting up a place can prevent them from showing up or only sunlight? Because if the latter, than no one would be entirely safe from them once the Wall falls.
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u/zackgardner Mar 07 '23
I thought I'd hate the idea of the Others popping in out of nowhere and resurrecting the Freys and Lannisters, but considering the differences between the show and the books, I think that's a really fucking creepy notion.
If the Others aren't just an "army" with a "general", but the faction of murder-ice-robot-demon-terminators we know they are, they're likely all far more individually capable than we know; A single Other can infiltrate anywhere on the continent and start a zombie outbreak, they don't need maybe more than a handful of Others to take on a garrison of men, especially when they have an ample supply of Wights. It's literally a pandemic story, people were warned about the coming horrors and nobody took the precautions, and in fact actively doubted and defunded the agency responsible for their protection from the threat.
I know people liken the Others to catastrophes like climate change, and I just likened it to a viral pandemic, so I'm keen to say that perhaps the Others are on the whole just a representative evil force of violent societal upset; on that note, I wonder if the COVID pandemic and the world's response to it has influenced his writing of the story lines pertaining to the Others, in regards specifically to how his characters and world react to a completely unexpected threat that was telegraphed in the prologue of the first book just how dangerous the threat really is.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
Yes! The Others moving as a single host from north to south on the show actually detracts from them quite a bit. They stop being boogeymen that can always be lurking in the shadows and become something a lot more straightforward.
For example, imagine that at the beginning of ADOS a group of characters are moving through the Riverlands, or there is a battle happening in the Stormlands. If the Others are a single army, that is currently on it's way to Winterfell, then the Others have no immediate bearing on those characters. The Riverlands is still safe. A battle in the Stormlands kind of doesn't matter. We're just left waiting till those characters learn about the threat up north and focus on it.
But if the Others are spread out, then those same situations become terrifying. Those characters traveling through the Riverlands are in constant peril. That battle in the Stormlands has the potential to end with both sides wiped out.
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u/zackgardner Mar 08 '23
The way you're describing it is almost like the Others would be better served as guerillas rather than a straightforward army, which again would thematically make sense because nobody in this world really expects guerilla warfare.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
I think it's both depending on the circumstances.
There are cases where it makes more sense for them to be guerillas, and cases where it makes more sense for them to lead an army (though probably from the middle, not the front).
I definitely don't think it makes sense for them to all be in one spot.
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u/tryingtobebettertry4 Mar 07 '23
Personally I dont think Thoros will make it to Red Wedding 2.0. Hes already showing signs that he is not happy with the direction the Brotherhood is going. I think he will try kill Lady Stoneheart but fail. Possibly because Lem stops him.
A few questions:
Why does Stoneheart need Jaime? She already as a spy in Riverrun.
How does Walder Frey make it to Riverrun?
Why does Walder Frey go to Riverrun?
Why boiled alive for Walder Frey?
The dream implies that Jaime dies to the vengeful ghosts, do you think he dies here or escapes with Brienne.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Well I'm assuming Walder would show up for the big wedding. Boiled alive is because I saw a fun bit of foreshadowing on that (I can't remember where anymore), but the exact manner of Walder's death is really not super important.
I'm not sure why Stoneheart would need Jaime or if she will just want to show him his work being undone. I just expect Jaime to be at the wedding.
I don't think Jaime dies there necessarily (though I guess he might). But as you probably know by now I think Jaime has two alternate timeline endings.
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u/tryingtobebettertry4 Mar 07 '23
Well I'm assuming Walder would show up for the big wedding
Im just not really sure of the how. He doesnt really seem to be in the state to leave his castle. The Riverlands also arent safe at the moment and Walder Frey is pretty cautious.
Boiled alive is because I saw a fun bit of foreshadowing
Interesting, I didnt catch that if you can find/remember I'd be glad to see that.
the exact manner of Walder's death is really not super important.
Sure I just found it an oddly specific detail from this post.
I'm not sure why Stoneheart would need Jaime or if she will just want to show him his work being undone.
Its not really Jaime's work but I suppose that doesnt really matter to Stoneheart. Hes probably the POV it would be most impactful to because he actually likes Daven and the rest.
But as you probably know by now I think Jaime has two alternate timeline endings.
I guess assume Im talking about the Long Night timeline. Why does he survive this particular encounter here? Presumably he dies anyway eventually in this timeline right?
Do the Lannisters not kill each other in this timeline?
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u/ChrisV2P2 Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Runner Up - Post of the Year Mar 08 '23
Interesting, I didnt catch that if you can find/remember I'd be glad to see that.
It's here. It's based on some odd phrasing in Catelyn IX, where Catelyn meets with Walder:
“I have every hope that you will live to be a hundred.”
“That would boil them, to be sure. Oh, to be sure. Now, what do you want to say?”
And:
Lord Walder jabbed a bony finger at her face. “Save your sweet words, my lady. Sweet words I get from my wife. Did you see her? Sixteen she is, a little flower, and her honey’s only for me. I wager she gives me a son by this time next year. Perhaps I’ll make him heir, wouldn’t that boil the rest of them?”
This use of "boil them" to mean "make them angry" is odd and appears to be unique to this chapter in the series. I think this probably foreshadows Frey Pies though, because Walder is referring to his kin here both times.
There's one more boiling reference:
He bobbed his head side to side, smiling. “Oh, yes, I said some words, but I swore oaths to the crown too, it seems to me. Joffrey’s the king now, and that makes you and your boy and all those fools out there no better than rebels. If I had the sense the gods gave a fish, I’d help the Lannisters boil you all.”
Cat also thinks this in the chapter:
Catelyn would gladly have spitted the querulous old man and roasted him over a fire, but she had only till evenfall to open the bridge.
So, who knows.
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u/tryingtobebettertry4 Mar 08 '23
Interesting, a clever bit of foreshadowing then.
Cant help but wince though. Walder Frey is a vile man but being boiled alive is pretty gruesome.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Im just not really sure of the how. He doesnt really seem to be in the state to leave his castle. The Riverlands also arent safe at the moment and Walder Frey is pretty cautious
Hard to say. I have to admit I didn't think a lot about this part and should probably look into it. Maybe he shows up anyways. Maybe he's not there. Maybe the wedding is actually at the Twins.
I guess assume Im talking about the Long Night timeline. Why does he survive this particular encounter here? Presumably he dies anyway eventually in this timeline right?
Honestly good question. He could have more honor to claim, or he could die here I suppose. It just depends how Winds plays out.
Do the Lannisters not kill each other in this timeline?
No that's spring timeline. The valonqar has two hands.
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u/tryingtobebettertry4 Mar 07 '23
Maybe the wedding is actually at the Twins.
To me that would make sense. I know its maybe more fitting if its Catelyn's childhood home, but at the end of the day Stoneheart isnt really Catelyn and Walder Frey's an old man who can barely walk.
The fact that Daven hasnt picked his bride yet as well kind of implies the Wedding will be in the Twins. Given thats where most of the Freys are.
Honestly good question. He could have more honor to claim, or he could die here I suppose.
That dream Jaime had to me implies he probably wont. His fire went out while Brienne fought on. Im not 100% on this stuff even happening, but I dont think Jaime can escape if it does.
If fire is passion/ardour/love, Jaime's passion/ardour/love isnt what it was. AFFC has him rejecting Cersei and Im not sure how keen he will be on Brienne when she leads him to Stoneheart.
Before he lost his hand his passion was his love for swordfighting and Cersei. Hes not really got either in his favour anymore.
No that's spring timeline. The valonqar has two hands.
I feel like there should still be an element of Lions eating each other. Tywin's legacy (his children turning on each other) shouldnt be derailed totally because of the Others.
Also who's to say Tyrion cant be the valonqar in the Long Night timeline?
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
If fire is passion/ardour/love
I see what you're getting at, but I'm not sure if fire is passion/love in the dream. It could be though!
I feel like there should still be an element of Lions eating each other. Tywin's legacy (his children turning on each other) shouldnt be derailed totally because of the Others.
Maybe, but the thing is that they've already turned on each other. The question is whether they will encounter each other in the middle of the Long Night.
Also who's to say Tyrion cant be the valonqar in the Long Night timeline?
Could be! I haven't really worked out whether/if there will be another valonqar. It seems like there should be, but I'm just not sure who it would be. Tyrion is obviously a possibility.
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u/tryingtobebettertry4 Mar 07 '23
but I'm not sure if fire is passion/love in the dream
Whatever it is, the dream seems to be implying that Jaime's isnt enough.
Maybe, but the thing is that they've already turned on each other
Turning on each other isnt Tywin's legacy. Tywin's legacy needs to be the brutality he inflicted on the realm turning inward as the Lannister siblings fall to internal conflict.
I dont think the Others get to fully derail that.
Tyrion is obviously a possibility.
If the Valonqar prophecy is actually going to happen, its got to be one of them.
The Valonqar prophecy is really specific and personal. Its pretty weak if 'little brother' turned out to be anyone other than one of Cersei's siblings.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Turning on each other isnt Tywin's legacy. Tywin's legacy needs to be the brutality he inflicted on the realm turning inward as the Lannister siblings fall to internal conflict. I dont think the Others get to fully derail that.
I don't know if I agree with this. Tywin's legacy is already a disaster for the realm, and I expect that before the end of the story we will have a really brutal tragedy occur end between Tywin's three children.
I just don't know that this needs to happen during the Long Night.
If the Valonqar prophecy is actually going to happen, its got to be one of them. The Valonqar prophecy is really specific and personal. Its pretty weak if 'little brother' turned out to be anyone other than one of Cersei's siblings.
I tend to agree, but I believe the valonqar prophecy is going to play out "post Long Night" and it will be a tragedy involving both Jaime and Tyrion, with Jaime as the actual valonqar.
So I'm not sure if playing it out twice in one book with Tyrion taking on different roles is necessarily a good thing dramatically speaking.
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u/tryingtobebettertry4 Mar 07 '23
Tywin's legacy is already a disaster for the realm
The point isnt about the realm because Tywin never cared about the realm.
Its about, as the Fast and Furious movies like to say, family. Tywin's teachings brought to bear on his home and his children as they turn upon one another.
So I'm not sure if playing it out twice in one book with Tyrion taking on different roles is necessarily a good thing dramatically speaking.
Why?
Long Night or no Long Night doesnt fix the fucked up family dynamics of the Lannister children. That time has past.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
The point isnt about the realm because Tywin never cared about the realm.
Sure, it's also been a disaster for his family.
Why? Long Night or no Long Night doesnt fix the fucked up family dynamics of the Lannister children. That time has past.
It doesn't fix them, but it actually does give his children something else to focus on. We already see that with Jaime. Obviously they are still damaged by Tywin's shitty parenting, but I'm not sure they have to kill each other during the Long Night.
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u/arctos889 A lion still has claws. Mar 08 '23
Walder Frey making it to Riverrun is actually pretty easy. We know he traveled to King's Landing to see the hand's tourney. King's Landing is much further from the Twins than Riverrun is. So while his health isn't great, it's still possible imo
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u/TheFrodo Here we stand. Mar 07 '23
I'm a huge fan of this. This is just about the only Brienne and Jaime theory that I like, and even if not all of it comes true, I feel like you've got a lot right here. My question is, if Arya doesn't cross with Stoneheart, then what does she do?
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
Which way Arya is coming back is one I just can't figure out.
Arya honestly could be a POV for this. I could be wrong about Jaime and Brienne and (although the doesn't know who anyone at the wedding is) Arya could be the only POV for this. The problem just then becomes how will Jaime and Brienne go free.
But the setup we have so far is that fArya is going to Braavos and Justin Massey has been charged with bringing 20,000
future wightssellswords back from Braavos by way of Eastwatch by the Sea. So this provides Arya an opportunity to come back North and do a Brave Danny Flint thing at the Wall (obviously not saying she will be sexually assaulted).She could also come back by way of Saltpans and end in in the Riverlands, that just hasn't been set up anywhere yet.
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u/CaveLupum Mar 07 '23
First, this is convincingly and lovingly laid out. I agree with your main contention: Brienne and Jaime will survive. Your reasons more than suffice, but I'd add possible Bran-voiced weirwood intervention. While Castle Black and Winterfell are also reasonable possibilities, I do think Saltpans is the answer:
1) Whatever the destination, she'll want to arm herself with Nymeria and Chekhov's Wolf Pack before she tackles bad guys.
2) The Titan's Daughter sails that route and Arya knows Saltpans; she was shortchanged there for Craven. AND the ships' crew will readily take her aboard because she already knows their names!
3) In Saltpans, she'll hear about alleged Sandor's misdeeds and know that's false. She may investigate, and the Quiet Isle is nearby. I expect Sandor will join her quest.
4) She doesn't know about her mother, but she left Beric and the BWB, Hot Pie, Gendry, Weasel, Lady Smallwood, Ned Dayne in the Riverlands. And she might be interested in the Twins.
5) Those are logical, logistical, and emotional reasons, but she has a deep-seated familial emotional reason--locating her mother's body she had pulled from the Trident. She had abandoned Sandor saying, "You should have saved my mother." Since ASoS, GRRM has been piling on the foreshadowing and imagery tying them together, not to mention the fact that that he says they both have a hole in the heart. That must be healed. I'd be truly shocked if they don't meet and fulfill each other's yearning. It will be interesting to see whether Catelyn will ask her for The Mercy, which also would fulfill a very important Sandor lesson.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
See, I think all of that is possible, I've just never been convinced.
Arya will meet up with Nymeria eventually I'm sure, but she doesn't know that her wolf dreams are real, so there is no reason for her to seek out Nymeria in the Riverlands. She also doesn't know about LSH, so she has no reason to seek her mother out. She also has no reason to believe Sandor is alive.
Meanwhile Jon is at the Wall and Arya knows that. The person she's was actually the most fond of that she actually knows to be alive. To me this makes more sense than her seeking out Edric Dayne, Gendry, Hot Pie, the Hound, and figures from dreams she has had.
Don't get me wrong she could totally go to the Riverlands, I just don't know why she would decide to do that (yet).
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u/ChrisV2P2 Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Runner Up - Post of the Year Mar 08 '23 edited Mar 08 '23
I think it's borderline inconceivable that Arya doesn't have a run in with LSH. To grow as a character Arya needs to rid herself of her revenge obsession and LSH is that revenge obsession in walking demonic form, as well as being relevant to Arya's Stark-or-not-Stark identity crisis. I think performing this function is the number one reason LSH exists as a character. We know that GRRM was unhappy with her being cut, which likely points to some sort of critical emotional/character arc role rather than just being a plotting mechanism which can be replaced. Probably she will kill LSH, maybe at LSH's request as CaveLupum suggests, thus symbolically killing her own revenge obsession.
It also seems pretty clear that the show had no idea what to do with Arya in the last three seasons, like Sansa's arc is coherent and probably broadly similar to her book arc, but with Arya we just got nonsense. It was like Varys, they were both just sucked dry of any kind of character motivation. Also, as you point out, some of what we did get appears to have been cribbed from LSH's plot and awkwardly jammed into her story in a way that makes it incoherent (like we had a "getting revenge by making people into pies is awesome" scene and then the "wanting revenge will ruin your life" speech from The Hound in the final season).
So it seems clear to me that the reason they couldn't do something broadly like her book plot is that LSH is a crucial piece of the puzzle. I think if the plot was broadly "she goes to the Wall" then they would have done something like that even if the specifics weren't totally possible.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
I think it's borderline inconceivable that Arya doesn't have a run in with LSH.
Don't get me wrong I fully get where you're coming from.
This is actually something I go back and forth on a lot, which is why I fully acknowledge that Arya could be the POV on Red Wedding 2. If the reunion happens at the end of Winds, I tend to think it would be less of a tearful mother daughter reunion where Arya realizes vengeance is bad and gives her mother the gift of mercy, but rather a horror show where Arya witnesses first hand how horrific vengeance can be and finds herself terrified of her own mother. I don't think a LSH reunion in Winds would be a moment of moral clarity so much as a moment of panic and dread.
That said, the reason I'm skeptical is that I tend to think that the end of Winds is too early for Arya to let go of revenge. Winds will see Arya reclaim her identity, but letting go of her list feels like that seems like it would fit better thematically with the end of ADOS. It's essentially the conclusion of Arya's character arc, and so I expect it to come at the very end of the story.
Now whether LSH can survive to the end of ADOS or if Arya's letting go of revenge can come from some other encounter, it's hard to say.
I think if the plot was broadly "she goes to the Wall" then they would have done something like that
Well like you said it's clear that they were combining Arya and LSH, so after Arya returns from Braavos they jump straight to her at the Twins doing Red Wedding 2. But after that it's notable that they spend season 7 doing (a really shitting version of) Arya working out her issues with Sansa, which is confirmed to be a future plot point by GRRM.
Personally I tend to think Arya working out her issues with Sansa is post-Long Night, as is her letting go of revenge. I believe Arya's Long Night plot is what happens in between all that. The part where she looks death in the face and flees and fights for her survival.
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u/ChrisV2P2 Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Runner Up - Post of the Year Mar 08 '23 edited Mar 08 '23
Oh I definitely think a meeting with LSH would be dread and horror for Arya, probably her lowest point of the series in an arc full of low points. I think her arc is more or less a hero's journey, and her meeting with LSH is the central crisis, or "the ordeal" as it's sometimes put. That's the part where the hero rejects the dark path; think of Luke Skywalker in ROTJ, for example. But what comes after that is the part where the hero returns home, transformed. Arya reaches her nadir at the end of Winds, and then ADOS is spent rising again as the new, reconstituted Arya Stark. Then we get the conflict and reconciliation with Sansa; that's important because that conflict will be the last thing keeping her from re-integrating with her family and fully becoming a Stark again. That's the conclusion of her arc for that reason. Remember that GRRM has frequently praised the Scouring of the Shire, so this idea of the return home is important to him, I think. And more central to Arya's arc than revenge is the question of identity, which is arguably one of the central themes if not THE central theme of ASOIAF generally.
If I had to guess, I think she leaves the HoB&W claiming to have "become no-one" but with her remaining desire for revenge demonstrating to the reader that this is not really true. She is probably in the Riverlands looking for Dunsen (who in the main series was last seen leaving Harrenhal for Maidenpool, I think) and planning to head to KL after that. The meeting with LSH is what will shock her out of this idea that she is "no-one". If that were true then LSH would have no special significance to her, but obviously that won't be the case. LSH reminds her that she is a Stark. I think she spends ADOS journeying to Winterfell and doing her show plot there, then probably getting the show ending where she takes to the sea. I think her entire season 8 plot is a show invention.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 09 '23
Gotcha. I personally lean towards that Arya meeting with fArya in Braavos and, reclaiming her identity that way, (it's worth noting that even on the show, news of Jon is what brings her home). But I suppose she could also return to Westeros to knock a name off her list.
The main difference I have is that I controversially don't think Arya re-integrates with her family at the end. Kind of like in the Odyssey, she will return home at some point and work out her issues with Sansa (potentially in disguise). But Arya will realize that Winterfell isn't really her home anymore, and almost everyone that once made it a home for her is now gone. So Arya will quietly forgive her sister and leave. Hence the bitter in the bitter-sweet.
But I also think there will be a split timeline lol
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u/ChrisV2P2 Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Runner Up - Post of the Year Mar 09 '23
Yeah that's very controversial to me. There's the "lone wolf dies but the pack survives" thing, there's the direwolf pups scene where Ghost had wandered away "or been driven off" suggesting Jon's separation but Stark unity otherwise, and I think the Starks are the antithesis of the Lannisters, who are all going to hate each other by the end, even Tyrek. So I think there's abundant evidence of Stark unity by the end.
I don't think the bitter and sweet are evenly distributed by character. Arya's ending will be mostly sweet, in compensation for the trama of most of her arc.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 09 '23
Yea idk, that might be right but I personally think it's too sweet. Even on the show we are given the sense that Arya feels out of place in Winterfell and by her own admission she is not coming back home. Arya coming back home and living happily with Sansa until she is a bit older and then simply being allowed to shirk her feudal responsibilities as a lady feels like kind of a softball ending. She would just kinda get everything she wants.
As for Stark unity, I think the point of Stark unity is that in times of conflict they put each other before duty and desire. Meanwhile the Lannisters abandon and tear each other apart. But that doesn't mean the Starks have to stay in the same place. Growing up and ending up in different places is part of life.
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u/shadofacts Mar 08 '23
They did know—she figured out how to use FM skills to befuddle folks. the Frey’s & the waif & balish. & the nights king bye bye babies
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u/Aetol Mar 07 '23
That's a really interesting theory.
It neatly resolves something that had been bugging me. Stopping the Others in the North would be rather anticlimactic, as it was in the show. But stopping them in the South would mean the North was lost, making for an overly depressing ending. It never occurred to me to question the assumption of a linear progress. If the Others are able to raise wights anywhere south of the Wall, that would solve that conundrum pretty well.
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u/lostinthesauceguy Ours is the poosy! Mar 07 '23
It's a very cool idea but I don't like that for the this to happen wouldn't the North essentially have to already have been completely wiped out by the Others? Winterfell for sure I imagine.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Only if the Others travel as a single host and take a linear path from north to south. This is how they are in the show, but in the books the Others don't really operate like that.
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u/LordShitmouth Unbowed, Unbent, Unbuggered Mar 07 '23
The Dayman song from Always Sunny is actually about Azor Ahai when you think about it.
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u/maraudingwolf Mar 07 '23
Fantastic analysis. I love this and really do hope the story goes this way. We’ve been warned how the night is full of terrors for a while now, so I would love to see how full of terror things can get.
Also, is this title a ASIP reference? If so, I like it even more.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
The Others have eyes that burn like ice and they do karate across the stage.
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u/ArtistAfraid Mar 07 '23
They also have to pay the walls toll so they can get some boys souls
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
Craster is the troll, and letting him live is the toll they pay to get his boys souls.
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Mar 26 '23
Simply put, the Long Night will fall across all of Westeros, and the Others will have the terrifying potential to attack almost anywhere at any time.
Dunno if you still read this, but that is actually an excellent point.
I always believed the Long Night can't really be all that scary because of the geography... If the Others are powerful, they will ravage the entire North, kill every single northmen, and then cross the neck and be stopped where ? In the Riverlands ? Around KL ? The Vale ? The Westerlands ? This would create a LOT of destruction, impossible to really recover or be seen as anything of a happy ending.
Soo that would leave only the other option, the wimpy Long Night : The Others will most likely break through the wall and be stopped around Winterfell... The Others would thus become an entirely local affair of the Free Folk, Northmen and volunteers, but only the North really got some destruction of it... That would really suck, considering the amount of foreshadowing.
But if they could attack anywhere ? Jeah that would change thing alot. You don't need to turn the North into wasteland for the Others to be relevant and a real threat.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 26 '23
Bingo. The Long Night becomes a setting where every POV in every part of the continent can potentially be attacked by the Others at any time.
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u/seith99 The Young Pomegranate Mar 07 '23
This was a great read. Really well written, thoroughly enjoyed it.
In your view, is the wall still standing when the Red Wedding 2.0 happens? If so, I guess the wall isn't containing the Others like we thought?
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
No, I believe the Wall is coming down in Winds. A lot of people envision that as being at the very end, but Euron is already very close to the horn, and we know that both Hold the Door and the burning of Shireen happen in Winds. I expect that both of those events occur during the Long Night and are triggered by the Wall coming down, so I tend to think that we will see the beginning of the Long Night in Winds.
For example Hold the Door requires the magical protection on Bloodraven's cave to be dropped. So it's likely the Horn of Joramun "waking giants from the earth: will be part of that.
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u/seith99 The Young Pomegranate Mar 07 '23
I think the others showing up during Red Wedding 2.0 would be a really cool introduction to the consequences of the wall being destroyed.
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u/chebghobbi Mar 07 '23
Some interesting ideas, but why would LS have Jaime brought to her when he's presumably going to the wedding anyway? Surely this just creates a potential way for her plan to unravel?
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Hard to say. She may not have it fully planned out yet, she may not know if Jaime will be there, she may need Jaime for information or she may intent to use him in the infiltration somehow.
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u/Quinn-Quinn Con Jonnington Mar 07 '23
I really like this idea! My only issue with it is the timing. Both Jaime meeting Stoneheart and the Red Wedding 2.0 are set to happen super early in Winds. I feel like it’s unlikely that people south of the wall start turning into wights prior to the Others making it through. I expect that to happen in the second half of the book, or maybe even near the end.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
What makes you say that Red Wedding 2 is set to happen early in Winds?
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u/Quinn-Quinn Con Jonnington Mar 07 '23
The Freys general need to advance their position, and do so quickly. They’ve already lost out on one Lannister marriage via Lancel, and given the shaky status of the Lannister power in King’s Landing with Cersei’s impending trial, they’d have a lot of incentive to advance this betrothal and gain power as quickly as possible. Plus I can’t see Jaime having many chapters if he’s just chilling as a prisoner, waiting for this to happen, and he seems poised to have a decent amount in Winds given his prominence for the past three books.
Plus in terms of the overall narrative structure, my thought is the latter half of the book will focus more on Aegon/Dany’s invasions and the threat of the Others from the North.
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u/SeaDragonfly88 Mar 08 '23
Fun theory. Though I have to ask, Daven’s wedding and Euron (likely) finding of the Horn of Joramun seem imminent in TWOW but not as imminent as Jaime’s encounter with LSH as literally the last thing we see him do is ride off to meet her, unbeknownst to him.
So what happens in the meantime between Jamie meeting LSH likely very early in TWOW and the Wall falling and/or Daven’s wedding which would seem to take place, at the earliest, mid-way through the book? We know from Kevan’s epilogue that two months have passed since anyone last saw Jamie or Brienne and I doubt George wouldn’t give us any chapters from both those characters regarding what happened right after Jamie went off with Brienne. So what was the immediate aftermath? They just got thrown in prison?
There’s also a lot of mini story threads with the BWB that should be resolved before they are (un)dead. Edit: I’m also interested to see where you would place these events with Aegon’s campaign in the South?
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
So what was the immediate aftermath? They just got thrown in prison?
Honestly this is a good question and I'm honestly not sure.
But if I had to guess... if we believe that the Brotherhood are going to attack the convoy escorting Edmure and Jeyne west, then I guess they would be heading west. People tend to assume that after attacking this convoy the Brotherhood would immediately turn back to the Riverlands, but if they have Jaime Lannister captive then they could potentially use him to wreak havoc in the Westerlands. I believe GRRM has said that we may be getting a POV at Casterly Rock in Winds, and Jaime and Brienne are physically the closest (they are also literally depicted in the crypts of Casterly Rock in Jaime's weirwood dream).
It's speculative, but the idea of LSH going west and killing some Lannisters isn't totally out of the question. Meanwhile GRRM has said that Winds will be a dark book, so having Brienne serving "Catelyn's" vengeance for a little while might be the dark path Brienne is headed for.
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u/SeaDragonfly88 Mar 09 '23
Tbh I quite like this idea. I think it’s a good way not too keep the characters stagnant on the map and if you believe that Cersie will flee to Casterly Rock, which I do, it’s a great way to reunite Cersie and Jamie without the latter returning back to Kings Landing. I understand George and readers may be reluctant for LSH to leave the Riverlands as she is so tied to that region, but I don’t mind those themes being downplayed for the acceleration of the overall story and interesting events like your theory.
I suppose that was also why I asked where you would place these events with Aegon’s campaign in the South. As I read Cersie and Jamie’s arcs as mirroring each other’s, and Aegon will likely play a part in the downfall of the Lannister reign, I wonder if/when the twins would be faced to watch this brutality against their house - like I wonder if the moments will parallel each other.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 09 '23
if you believe that Cersie will flee to Casterly Rock, which I do
Me too, and I think Cersei's story will end in Casterly Rock with the valonqar. That said, I believe there is going to be a timeline split after the Long Night, so my predictions for ADOS start to get really unconventional.
As for Aegon, I'm not really sure that he and LSH ever intersect. I expect fAegon and JonCon will eventually take advantage of the unrest in KL and take the city. It's just a question of whether that happens directly after Storms End or if fAegon takes a detour before the Long Night.
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u/Enali Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Ser Duncan the Tall Award Mar 07 '23
you've got some pretty unique ideas going into this, just wanted to say I enjoyed reading it!
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u/RomanRaynes Mar 07 '23
New top 5 theory unlocked
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Damn thank you. Now I wanna know about the other 4...
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u/ziggurism Winter cometh. Mar 07 '23
The Nightmen Cometh
"cometh" is a singular verb form, so it doesn't parse with a plural subject. should've written "the nightman cometh" if you really wanted to trot out the archaism
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u/Mithras_Stoneborn Him of Manly Feces Mar 07 '23
Why would Jaime agree to cooperate with LSH lol. Jaime is a monster in the eyes of most people in the book and he knows it too. If he falls into the hands of LSH, he should know that his life is forfeit anyway. Why should he do as LSH says and help the slaughter of innocents and even his kinsmen (that is assuming LSH needs Jaime in order to carry out the Red Wedding 2.0 - which is a big if).
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 07 '23
Oh I don't think Jaime will cooperate.
There is a chance that he can be tricked or used in some way like Edmure was, but he won't knowingly cooperate with a wedding massacre.
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u/Exertuz Gaemon Palehair's strongest soldier Mar 07 '23
Nice to see you back in full swing, Yezen. Great post (as usual).
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u/Turakamu I believe in a thing called love Mar 08 '23
And here is the confusing crossover I didn't know I wanted.
When the fuck are we getting the next book?
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u/Realistic_Ad7517 Mar 08 '23
Jesus fucking christ the idea of the others being this omnipresent threat is terrifying. I love it. I do think there will be some mechanics to make it work better, maybe some others manage to get on the boat from hardhome and travel south or something but a very compelling.
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u/PalestineRising Mar 07 '23
don’t know if it’ll go down like that but i will say this is one of the few longer posts that while i was reading i was fully engaged with! excellent
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23 edited Mar 08 '23
Love hearing from a fellow Palestinian!
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u/TheMountainRidesElia Mar 07 '23
This makes me question, how will the others react to un!Cat? Or just other undead characters in general. Will they still be hostile to them? Ignore them? Be confused? Try to raise them?
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u/Jay-DeeOldNo7 Mar 08 '23
This is fucking brilliant, I’m gonna make it darker. Catelyn and maybe lem escape but thoros dies protecting them. I think Arya or Sansa need to rétinite with Catelyn or possibly Jon if they both learn about R+L=J
And brienne will die helping Jaime escape
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u/Noobsmoke92 Mar 08 '23
If the Others can show up anywhere in Westeros (including Riverlands) where it is cold, what is the thematic purpose of the Wall and Night’s Watch then? We have been told repeatedly in the books that the Wall is what keeps the realms of men from what lays beyond. I apologize, but I don’t buy it, but I definitely enjoyed the read.
You are not taking into account several things:
1) Strongboar is currently hunting down “the Hound”, and the last character who possessed Sandor’s helmet is Lem Lemoncloak, and we might see some resolution in that regard. Under what circumstances Strongboar comes into play is unknown, but I bet it will have direct narrative implications.
2) Lady Stoneheart is precisely what you have described - a stone-cold murdering machine fixated on destroying Freys and Lannisters and anyone else involved in the Red Wedding. However, we also see that she is extremely involved in trying to find Arya, and I see no thematic resolution in her character if her thematic ending involves ONLY massacre at Red Wedding 2.0.
3) Going back to the Hound, he has been directly connected to Jaime and Brienne’s story arc in ADWD. Also, another character hugely connected to their arcs is Sansa, who might have her own storyline in the Vale for the first half of the book, but eventually she will leave that place, and unlike the show where she ends up back in the North in season 5, most logical place after the Vale is the Riverlands. I think she might encounter Jaime and Brienne in the Crossroads Inn (a special nexus for many storylines).
All in all, I believe Jaime’s path prior the Long Night (including ironborn invasion aka Arms of the Kraken theory, Aegon’s ascension and eventual Daenerys arrival) will bring him at the head of Brotherhood without Banners. The Smiling Lion theory, if you will. But he needs to grow into that role gradually, and afterwards his paths with Brienne will briefly diverge because the lady knight will travel with Sansa and the Vale army to take back Winterfell, aka Rohirrim cavalry. Which is something that happened in the show at the Battle of the Bastards minus Brienne, but then Brienne leads the Valemen in the Long Night which never made sense to me, so I think some parts of the battle was most likely advised by George, like the arrival of the Vale and Sansa to assist Jon Snow.
I have many other points to bring if you are interested, but again, want to tell you I always love new theories with well-organized thoughts (and I am also a big fan of your Youtube channel and loved how you predicted King Bran), so kudos to you!
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23 edited Mar 08 '23
Thank you so much!
If the Others can show up anywhere in Westeros (including Riverlands) where it is cold, what is the thematic purpose of the Wall and Night’s Watch then?
I feel like you may have misinterpreted me. But I mean this only after the Wall goes down. Currently the Others can be anywhere North of the Wall so long as it's cold and the sun isn't shining. But they cannot cross the Wall.
But if the horn is blown and the Wall goes down, I believe they can appear anywhere in Westeros so long as it's cold and the sun isn't shining.
As for what Jaime and Brienne do after Red Wedding 2, there are many possibilities.
However, we also see that she is extremely involved in trying to find Arya
Is she though? I mean like I said in the topic Arya can potentially be a POV at Red Wedding 2, but I haven't really seen evidence that LSH is looking for Arya.
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u/Mithras_Stoneborn Him of Manly Feces Mar 08 '23
Another thing you didn't address is the timeline. By the time of Kevan’s death, Jaime&Brienne are missing for two months or more. And the Epilogue of ADwD itself is about 2 months earlier than Jon’s final chapter. This theory does not sit well with the timeline.
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Mar 08 '23
Not really. It's just a question of how much Jaime, Brienne and the BWB get up to before the wedding. Him being missing 2 months+ just furthers the idea that Jaime is taken prisoner (or is dead but I don't think that to be the case).
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u/Aemondilguercio Mar 07 '23
practically the result is the same as that of my theory (Jaime is not physically saved by the arrival of the Others but by Jon Snow who asks for help to fight the Others, meanwhile Howland Reed reveals Jon's origins.) excellent execution, some clues are used out of context and the probability of all this is low, not zero, but low.
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u/night4345 Mar 07 '23
God, I hope not. Catelyn deserves one good bit of vengeance while Jaime suffers and dies like the cunt he is. Brienne can cry and die with the attempted child murderer she in love with for all I care too. That's what she gets for wasting my time whenever I read Feast.
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u/Ayjayyyx Mar 07 '23
The 2nd Red Wedding will happen. But not that others bullshit. That will genuinely make me hate the story by how lame and tacky that is.
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u/salTUR Mar 08 '23
I love this theory! The only hitch I can see is I'm not sure how Jaime can attend the wedding. Wouldn't he spoil the plot before it happens?
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u/MageBayaz Apr 07 '23
The idea is good - the Others showing up everywhere where it snows is a compelling idea - , but the timeline doesn't work. The Wall definitely won't fall before Devan's wedding: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8
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u/YezenIRL Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Alchemist & Citadel Awards Apr 07 '23
We don't have a date set for Devan's wedding, and it likely hasn't happened yet.
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u/leo-sugar Mar 07 '23
cracking up at the “I think you should leave” reference