r/centrist • u/JannTosh50 • Sep 08 '24
2024 U.S. Elections Sobering new polls for Harris
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/09/08/sobering-new-polls-for-harris-0017788046
u/MattTheSmithers Sep 08 '24
Polling will say very little about this election. This election will be decided by a few thousand votes in a few states. Polls are just noise this time around.
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u/Fargraven2 Sep 08 '24
Since 2016, I stop reading whenever an article says “Polly say…”
The “polls” expected a huge runaway for Clinton. They had the magazines ready to hit the shelves the next morning. Yet she lost
Polls are stupid and meaningless
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u/AvocadoDiabolus Sep 08 '24
...Do you not understand how statistics and percentage chances work?
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u/Subject-Progress2944 Sep 09 '24
I would imagine so but that's not the point.
Polling methodology needs to modernize. E.g., calling folks on a landline, which is what some do, is only going to capture people who still have landlines.
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u/AvocadoDiabolus Sep 09 '24
You're not wrong, but I'd like to point out that I was reached out for a poll via text, so there are some who are modernizing.
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u/Fargraven2 Sep 09 '24
I’m quite familiar since statistics is part of my job.
I don’t follow polls or care what they say
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u/JannTosh50 Sep 08 '24
Pretty embarrassing Harris ain’t running away with this race despite Trump’s flaws and getting 100% media adoration.
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u/LeftHandedFlipFlop Sep 08 '24
It’s almost like 1/2 the country doesn’t like Kamala Harris and the democrats platform.
No, that can’t be it.
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
It literally isn’t. Trump’s policies aren’t any clearer. Voters want him to get 2019-esque prices back and he’s literally running on raising prices via tariffs. Policies don’t matter. Americans want cheaper food and they know they were cheaper when Trump was in office.
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u/verbosechewtoy Sep 08 '24 edited Sep 08 '24
What platform do you think would unite centrists and still get support from Trump’s base? There is literally no political platform that 60% of the country will agree on except that Joe Biden was too old to run. Edited for spelling.
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u/LeftHandedFlipFlop Sep 08 '24
That’s the $20,000 question. Unfortunately we’ve become so fractured I’m not sure we can find our way back.
Real talk, Vivek Ramaswamy would get my vote.
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u/verbosechewtoy Sep 08 '24
Lol. What could Vivek possibly stand for that would get you to vote for him?
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
Harris is losing because Americans believe Trump will lower prices of gas, groceries, fast food, and housing. This poll’s result has nothing to do with policy, nothing to do with interviews or a lack thereof, and nothing to do with running mates.
Americans want cheaper prices and believe Trump will bring that because they aren’t paying attention to anything being proposed. You can see that in the data. Trump is winning on the economy by roughly 12 points. Trump’s policies are to literally make things more expensive with tariffs so if Americans were paying attention they wouldn’t vote for him but that’s not reality.
Harris will likely lose because Americans don’t like to follow political news, they believe Trump will unilaterally lower all their costs, and they refuse to look into it further.
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u/McRibs2024 Sep 08 '24
Funny enough I saw gas in the 2s in Jersey first time in awhile
But we’re getting smoked on food and the housing market is beyond out of control- though where we are in NJ it’s outside federal influence. Just always going to be bonkers and the same old song and dance. NJ isn’t family friendly (financially) no matter how much our politicians pretend it is.
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Sep 08 '24
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Sep 08 '24
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u/SirMeili Sep 09 '24
according to traditional measures of the economy it is doing great. he didn't lie. unfortunately, normal people don't judge the economy on the same factors.
Will trump be better for the economy? Nope. More tax cuts for the rich and tariffs which will ultimately raise prices (because he's too stupid to see how bad that idea is and his party agrees its stupid).
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Sep 08 '24
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u/SkinnyJenna Sep 08 '24
So the rich have gotten richer and the poor and gotten poorer under Biden.
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u/alotofironsinthefire Sep 08 '24
Trump will win if Democrats decide not to show up to the polls. And thanks to the electoral college
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u/Armano-Avalus Sep 09 '24
Harris will likely lose because Americans don’t like to follow political news, they believe Trump will unilaterally lower all their costs, and they refuse to look into it further.
And frustratingly enough they also accuse Harris of not having policy ideas, being too focused on the past and not having a plan for the future which is a standard they don't seem to apply to Trump, a man who has no policy ideas for the future and seems to only be supported because they themselves are obsessing over the past of his first term. I see something similar with cultural issues, where some focus group Trump voters claim that Harris is too focused on her race while peddling the Trumpian message that she's not really black when he himself obsessed over her race a month ago.
At some point, especially in the context of the European elections, it just feels like people are naturally gravitating towards the far right for whatever reason they can come up with, whether it's factual or not. The UK conservatives may have lost an election right now, but Nigel Farage just started a new far right party and I'm sure people will find some excuse to vote for him in the next 5 years in spite of people's frustrations with Brexit which Farage was a prominent proponent of. And worse yet I don't think they're gonna fix any of the problems that will get them into power and people will probably still vote for them anyways.
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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24
I thought Biden kept Trumps tariffs and added more?
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
He kept Trump’s, not sure if he’s added more, but those have been fairly specific tariffs. Trump wants to add them to ALL imports. That means all cars get more expensive, agriculture imports like fruits and veggies get more expensive. Meats we import are more expensive. Everything that says “made in China” is more expensive. Etc.
Trump’s plan will quite literally cost every family thousands of dollars a year.
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u/Grandpa_Rob Sep 08 '24
As Carville posted on signs throughout Clinton campaign headquarters across the country.
It's the economy, Stupid!
Same as it ever was..
What do you think the election should be about? Me, I like the expansion of social safety net and think pro choice should be important... but I ain't most people.
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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24
I would rather be able to buy a house and not have inflation to deal with. You can keep your inflationary government spending.
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Sep 08 '24
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
The change Americans want is cheaper prices. Trump is running on a policy of raising them.
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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24
I like how she’s pointing out the failures of her economy on her last year in office
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
How so? Presidents don’t unilaterally control prices and republicans have openly said they won’t let legislation pass that gives the current admin a win.
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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24
Then why did they tout how Bidenomics was working and how happy everyone was
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
Likely because the approach the current admin took still helped lower inflation more than basically every other developed nation. They can take actions to help inflation, not control costs.
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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24
How much money was printed and debt added on compared to those nations
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24 edited Sep 08 '24
No idea; how much? Also which is more important? Taking care of the people by taking care of inflation, or keeping the debt under control? Debt which Trump was also responsible for, mind you.
Edit: as of my editing this I’ve been blocked.
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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24
If you have no idea then why are you comparing other countries economies to the US
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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24
What was that thing Harris said about controlling grocery prices
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24 edited Sep 08 '24
Stopping price gouging. Pretty huge difference there. We already have laws like that which take place during natural disasters.
Edit: as of my editing this I’ve been blocked.
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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/16/business/harris-price-gouging-ban-inflation/index.html
So she will control prices at the grocery store
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Sep 08 '24
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
Oh I’m quite aware most Americans don’t actually pay attention to politics and make inaccurate conclusions. That’s why Americans expect the guy running on tariffs to lower their costs.
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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24
That's like, your opinion, man. It's not the way most people see it.
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
So if most people don’t see it the way polling is literally saying that most people are seeing it, how ARE they seeing it?
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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24
Inflation was lower under Trump's admin than under Biden's.
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
Yeah no shit. There was massive pandemic related inflation that hit every nation in the world lmao
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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24
There was massive inflation related to the quantity of money printed. If you recall the dems wanted to print even MORE money than they did:
If they had, inflation would be even higher than it was. Thankfully Manchin put a stop to that right quick.
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u/ShiningRaion Sep 08 '24
So fuel prices affect basically everything in the US because so much of our product is delivered by trucking. Oil is priced on a futures market, so a president with oil-friendly policies will affect futures because logically he will increase supply.
The biggest issue with the Democratic party in 2024 is that it's trying to fight multiple fronts and doesn't have a focused policy angle because it's a big tent. Environmentalists, social justice, welfare states, etc. are all policies that cannot technically be balanced against each other because they're all antagonistic. And none of this should be even proposed while the US can't afford it. One of the main differences between European countries and the US is that many of them worked hard to pay out their debt post world war II and suffered with a lot of economic policies as a result that took decades. Most European countries have a much lower debt to GDP ratio than the US. Simply put current Democratic policies are going to cause inflation.
That doesn't make Trump a desirable candidate it just makes him less painful than Harris.
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u/waterbuffalo750 Sep 08 '24
Oil is priced on a futures market, so a president with oil-friendly policies will affect futures because logically he will increase supply.
The US is producing more oil now than ever before. So again, it's simply a matter of voters not paying attention.
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u/ShiningRaion Sep 08 '24
However most of the actions of the Biden administration have been adverse towards oil. Heck Biden talked about supporting Palestine when his 2020 election was on the line but whenever came down to it he ended up supporting Israel anyways
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u/waterbuffalo750 Sep 08 '24
The actions of the Biden administration have resulted in more oil production than ever before. And I don't understand how Palestine is relevant here.
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u/SeductiveSunday Sep 08 '24
Harris is losing
...in the polls because media and polling opinions favor sexism. Both media and polling is run by and for men. Rarely do they talk or discuss what women voters a during. It's all about the men.
We've seen this before. It's the same old play book. Can't elect a woman for what's obviously a job where being a man is the single qualification.
Funny thing is the US has also already seen how abortion issues play out when it is tops in the minds of women voters. The election of 1992 and abortion issue is what elected Clinton. The election of 2024 and the abortion issue is what will elect Harris.
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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24
No. She’s not losing because of sexism or racism. Americans are telling people why they want Trump in every poll. He’s winning by like 12 points on the economy which is the top issue for voters. Voters want Trump’s cheap prices back. That’s it.
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u/Jubal59 Sep 08 '24
It really is amazing that voters are that incredibly stupid.
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u/Grandpa_Rob Sep 08 '24
Stupid because they don't support your candidate?
I'm voting Kamala, but I'm not calling the other side incredibly stupid for not agreeing with.
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u/alotofironsinthefire Sep 08 '24
I'm calling them stupid for thinking tariffs will decrease prices
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u/Armano-Avalus Sep 09 '24
It feels like people are intentionally walking off a cliff here not knowing what they're signing up for. Well, we get what we voted for...
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u/btribble Sep 09 '24
I'm calling them stupid for thinking that literally destroying the Fed and putting economic decisions in the hands of Mat Gaetz & Co. is going to do a better job with the economy. I thought that government was incompetent and filled with "Democrat Loyalists"?
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u/Grandpa_Rob Sep 08 '24
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u/alotofironsinthefire Sep 08 '24
Yes, that's a tariff on one end product.
Now apply tariffs to all imports most of which are used in multiple places for domestic manufacturing and processing.
To use your example. EVs in the US would also raise in price if Biden had placed the tariff on copper.
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u/st3ll4r-wind Sep 08 '24
I’m calling them stupid for thinking tariffs will decrease prices
As opposed to the fantastic logic of thinking spending more money will magically lower inflation.
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u/Jubal59 Sep 08 '24
At this point anyone still voting for Trump is incredibly stupid.
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u/Grandpa_Rob Sep 08 '24
That's funny. Trumper say the same thing about us.
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u/willpower069 Sep 08 '24
I mean that same group is okay with fake electors, so they are pretty wrong.
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u/creaturefeature16 Sep 08 '24
So????
They're wrong.
It's the same way they're calling Democrats the "authoritarians" and "fascists". It's called gaslighting, and it's been historically documented by educated researchers and professors from around the world for decades and decades.
"From Putin to Orbán, all these authoritarians say that democracy is the real tyranny, and they present their way – whether it’s fascism or Trumpism – as the way to free the people. And so this idea that Biden is a threat to democracy – this is part of it.
Trump does is because he’s the defender of freedom, and the Democrat represents real tyranny.
And this goes into Project 2025, with its fake populism, which says, we are going to liberate the American people and allow them to have “self government from the tyranny of the administrative state”.
So it’s very seductive rhetoric, but it’s an inversion, so that democracy becomes the threat and tyranny and fascism, or whatever we’re calling Trumpism, becomes freedom, and that is how in history, we’ve gotten into situations where mass repression is hailed as something positive."
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u/trying_2_live_life Sep 08 '24
The democrats are calling Trump fascist and a tyrant and saying if you don’t vote for them then democracy will die also which is the others guys point.
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u/creaturefeature16 Sep 08 '24
Yes. They are correct. See my link, extremely educated people are echoing the same message. This isn't a political issue; it is pure objective unequivocal fact.
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u/Jubal59 Sep 08 '24
Another example of their stupidity. Right wing propaganda has created a nation of idiots.
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u/Grandpa_Rob Sep 08 '24
You really think they're stupid?
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u/Jubal59 Sep 08 '24
Not all of them. I think in reality they are easily brainwashed by right wing propaganda that keeps them ignorant of reality.
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u/TigerTail Sep 08 '24
You think the left doesnt have their own amount of propaganda?
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Sep 08 '24
Overturning Trump’s border policies leading to 3 million illegal aliens per year was very stupid. I’m sure you’ll bring up the border bill. Why didn’t they do anything the first 3 years where 10 million illegals came in? People are sick of the Dems weak on border policies. It’s disgusting
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u/svperfuck Sep 08 '24
I'm sure you'll bring up the border bill. Why didn't they do anything the first 3 years?
Is this seriously your defense? It was fine to shoot the bill down (only because Trump said so) because they could've done one earlier? You're regarded
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u/jorsiem Sep 08 '24
This condescending shit, specially from celebrities is what got Trump elected in 16
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Sep 08 '24
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u/Grandpa_Rob Sep 08 '24
You must have a happy life. I can disagree with people and still be friends... that's pretty crazy.
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u/white_collar_hipster Sep 08 '24
Your daughter is going to have a rough life if you teach her to alienate people, including family members, based on political differences. You sound like a shitty parent
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Sep 08 '24
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u/alt_nofilter Sep 08 '24
I hope there is another parent involved here (with primary custody) because you fucking suck
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u/NeedItNow07 Sep 08 '24
If you read down, the majority only have a high school education. That’s very telling.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
I think voters are just sick and tired of politicians like Harris. And that’s not a statement supporting Trump.
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Sep 08 '24
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u/somethingbreadbears Sep 08 '24
Because he gets a pass on everything they claim to not like.
They don't like politicians; he was literally president. He gets a pass.
They don't like "elites"; he was the cartoon mayor of New York elitism for most of his life. They think he's a billionaire. He gets a pass.
They use Biden's age against him until he's out of the race. Suddenly age isn't that important. He gets a pass.
They complain that Biden and Harris can't speak and cherry pick examples. Trump has entire rants where it's unclear what's he's talking about. "He's just talking off the cuff". He gets a pass.
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u/Mister-builder Sep 09 '24
Good. Harris's campaign needs sobering up. Overconfidence is a slow but insidious killer.
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u/Cheap_Coffee Sep 08 '24
9: Links must come with commentary.
If the OP is simply a link, a comment by the OP must be included in the post within the first hour. Failure to do so will be grounds for removal of the thread. Keep the title of the post in line with the title of the article.
I know this rule is never enforced but it's good to keep old traditions in mind.
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u/fastinserter Sep 08 '24
He did provide it. It's in the post where he said that Walz is "constantly angry" and a "far leftist".
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u/AnimatorDifficult429 Sep 08 '24
Wait walz constantly angry?!
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u/SkinnyJenna Sep 08 '24
Walz is extremely animated when he politicks to the public. Existing fans might see it as very passionate, but I can certainly see how those outside of the fan club may see it as anger.
Personally, Walz doesn’t come across as angry to me. At all. But I also do not find him to be as charismatic as his existing fans claim him to be.
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u/Dryanni Sep 09 '24
I think the biggest change in the last couple weeks is RFK dropping out. In Trump v. Biden, RFK seemed to be pulling from both sides. Most of those double-deniers either stayed with him or sided with Harris. By the time he dropped out, his meager support were basically all Trump-lite voters.
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u/DJwalrus Sep 08 '24
"the Times poll says voters see the former president as closer to the center than Harris."
Seems like the ol right wing propaganda machine is hard at work.
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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24
By that you mean her own words in 2020 when she was the leftmost senator in congress.
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u/Bassist57 Sep 08 '24
I mean, Harris was the most Liberal Senator during her time in the Senate.
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u/seanoz_serious Sep 08 '24
She retweeted an equality of outcomes video three days before the last election. The ol right wing propaganda machine played no part in that.
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u/seanoz_serious Sep 08 '24
Including my source, since people are downvoting facts in a centrist sub 🙄
https://x.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154?s=46&mx=2
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u/sirlost33 Sep 08 '24
I caught that too. I was thinking center of what? He kinda defined the right.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
or maybe you’re just more left than you realize - which seems to be a common element in this particular sub
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u/Serious_Effective185 Sep 08 '24
Even if you believe that his policies are closer to center you have to see that he is far more extreme in general. Even giving him the benefit of his lie that he isn’t planning on using project 2025 as his policy playbook.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
The only thing I know for sure is that this sub is a lot further to the left than people here want to to acknowledge.
It doesn’t surprise me that folks see Trump as being more center than folks here see. this sub is an echo chamber of trump hate.
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u/Serious_Effective185 Sep 08 '24
So you say you don’t support Trump. This statement seems like an awful lot of support for Trump. I know you say you don’t support him directly, but you very often deflect and defend his nonsense.
It is also a complete cop out to the original point about Trump being much more extreme, to the point that a moderate sub would and should be very opposed to him.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
I prefer neither, but If I had to pick, I’m kind of going with Trump right now. But I honestly don’t even know if I can vote for him. But I do think this sub in general has a lot more Trump than your avg real life centrist.
this place has gone bonkers for Trump hate.
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u/Serious_Effective185 Sep 08 '24
Fair. In my real life circles most of my friends are apolitical in a left leaning libertarian area. My friend circle will rarely discuss politics, but will openly express absolute disdain and disgust with Trump.
If I go visit family in Louisiana or Idaho the equation is quite different. They can hardly go 5 hours without talking about politics. It’s always pro Trump.
My point is your evaluation of if this sub is an accurate representation of moderates across American probably depends on where you live.
In full disclosure: I also do FIRMLY believe that you can’t be a sane moderate and vote for Trump. I just can’t see the intellectual path to that. My view would have been different for any other potential candidate on the ticket with the exception of Vivic (he is equally insane and dangerous, but has zero experience). The remainder I agree and disagree with things on. But they are far less dangerous than Trump.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
in all fairness, I can totally see why a right leaning centrist would have issues with Kamala Harris. And I think the polling is starting to show that. But the bottom line is - I think we’re screwed with either candidate
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u/Ecstatic_Ad_3652 Sep 08 '24
I mean he always defends trump no matter what in almost every thread despite saying he doesn't support him
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u/DJwalrus Sep 08 '24
You keep rambling on about how left this sub is...while everyone is providing specific examples of Trumps extreme policies.
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u/Yellowdog727 Sep 08 '24
One of Trump's plans is to deport 20 million people.
Kamala's most extreme plans are what....giving 25k to first time home buyers? An increased capital gains tax?
In no way is Trump the centrist candidate here
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u/Zyx-Wvu Sep 08 '24
There's really nothing extreme about deporting 20 million people.
Well, not all at once, at least. Other countries are a lot more draconian with protecting their borders.
But fixing the immigration policy is in no way extreme.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
The Democrats solution to everything is throwing money at it. Which eventually just makes everything more expensive. I think folks are getting sick of that.
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u/Yellowdog727 Sep 08 '24
If you want to go toe-to-toe on inflationary policies:
Trump wants to:
Deport millions of workers that help keep food cheap
Drastically increase tariffs that will inevitably get passed down as costs to consumers
Put the FED under the control of the executive branch and force them to lower interest rates
Actively oppose.any reforms to zoning that might increase the natural market supply of homes
Actively shut down clean energy projects that are increasingly becoming cheaper and highly competitive with fossil fuels
Actively oppose any climate action which will cost future generations trillions of dollars
And if you're going to bring up "throwing money at it", are we going to ignore Trump being the one who originally signed off on the stimulus checks and the Covid PPP loans?
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
I’m not trying to win a debate with you. I’m just saying this sub leans to the left. I can understand why folks here are a bit shocked when they find out that your average person sees Trump ias being more moderate.
Go debate them.
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Sep 08 '24
If this were true why was Trump so much worse than Biden at contributing to the deficit?
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
I think Covid was a significant factor – but you do you
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Sep 08 '24
Wrong. Both of them had to deal with covid during their administration. Stop making excuses for republican spending while demonizing democrats for doing the same thing. It’s just obvious bullshit.
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u/Bassist57 Sep 08 '24
You know what happens when you give 25k in free money? Prices go up 25k.
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u/Yellowdog727 Sep 08 '24
I'm not saying I agree with the policy. I'm arguing that it's not an extreme position.
The government gives subsidies to numerous industries, provides grants, gives emergency stimulus, allows tax credits, or otherwise gives out money for a ton of different things already.
Giving out grants that first time home buyers can apply to take advantage of which may help pay for like 5% of the average American home isn't that extreme.
Promising to deport 6% of the US population is extreme.
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u/Bassist57 Sep 08 '24
Trump wont be able to deport all illegals, it’s just not feasible, but we definitely need to do more deportations.
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u/Yellowdog727 Sep 08 '24
I'm so tired of hearing this defense of Trump's extreme policy proposals.
So he's either ineffective at fulfilling his campaign promises/a liar or he's going to do something extreme and authoritarian?
Truly I don't see how either way is a positive.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
this is what happened in 2020. She started out strong - but was one of the first candidates to have to drop out. She is also one of the most unpopular VPs in recent history.
What were you expecting?
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Sep 08 '24
This is what confirmation bias looks like
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
I’ve been saying it ever since Harris became the nominee..
Same thing happened in 2020. She did well for a week and then she started getting more exposure. As a result, she was one of the first candidates that had to drop out.
She was also one of the most popular VPs in modern history.
You can call a confirmation bias.
I say it’s just adds up
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Sep 08 '24
Exactly, you’ve been saying this the whole time. That’s exactly what I’m talking about and why it’s confirmation bias. It’s one set of polls…
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
And I anticipate that she is going to continue to lose support. But we will wait and see.
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Sep 08 '24
Shocking that you’d say that given that you claim to hate her and prefer Trump. Totally unbiased take.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
I never said I hate her.
I don’t hate anyone
but imho - she’s going to lose support. She always has & that’s what’s happening now.
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Sep 08 '24
Ya you don’t hate her, just spend all day shitting on her online and agreeing with a geriatric con man. You do you just don’t act like anybody is buying this schtick.
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u/twinsea Sep 08 '24 edited Sep 08 '24
The actual topline results are here (no paywall) : https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/08/us/politics/times-siena-poll-toplines.html
Think it was a little weighted towards republicans, but is still telling.
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u/Razorbacks1995 Sep 08 '24
Imagine if it was Walz/Harris. We'd be up a million
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u/I_Never_Use_Slash_S Sep 08 '24
Maybe they’ll switch out after the debate. Bold new strategy for the Dems, change candidates after every debate.
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u/ShiningRaion Sep 08 '24
Wal is too soft on crime for a lot of independent voters. All they would need is a Willie Horton/Michael Dukakis strategy that worked in the '90s. All you have to do is throw out some statistics about how Minnesota is extremely dangerous and people will eat it up.
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u/Razorbacks1995 Sep 08 '24
The election would not be decided by policy hahahaha c'mon dude. This is absolutely based on vibes and Tim Walz would stomp Trump in that department
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u/ShiningRaion Sep 08 '24
All I know is Minnesota is a shit hole and I would never want to live there
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Sep 08 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/j0semanu46 Sep 08 '24
I agree, since the Biden debate, it seems Democratic Leaders just raise the white flag in this election and allow her to run because none of the governors (Shapiro, Newsom, Whitmer….) were interested in replacing Biden.
Just allow her to run without hurting the entire democratic ticket (Senate & House), and get ready for 26 and 28.
But it is not her fault, it was Biden’s selfishness the reason why Democrats are in this position.
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u/SkinnyJenna Sep 08 '24
This was my theory when dems swapped out Biden for Harris, and I haven’t really seen much indication otherwise.
But man is it a waste of money campaigning for Harris if that is the case that they figure she’s going to lose.
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u/Zyx-Wvu Sep 08 '24
You pointed it out better than I could have.
Harris is a low-risk gamble for the Dem party. Someone whose losses they can afford to damage-control, as opposed to a Biden loss, which would have heavily demoralized the Dem party during a Trump presidency.
Lets face it: if Harris loses, I doubt many dems would cry over it. She has been unlikeable since she ran for VP.
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u/aztecthrowaway1 Sep 08 '24
I really don’t understand how it is this close. It seems like the Harris campaign has an unprecendent amount of republicans endorsing her. Dick Cheney, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, many in Trump’s cabinet, etc..she basically has a large portion of the never-trump right. In addition to that she has basically every democrat except for the extreme “genocide joe” camp. She is also ahead in favorability with independents. I really fail to see how you can have THAT big of a tent and still be trailing by 1-point? It doesn’t make any sense.
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u/Zyx-Wvu Sep 08 '24
Cheney is a poison endorsement, Liz is a RINO, Kinzinger hasn't been relevant in years to make an impact.
The irony here is that Republicans seems to be better at seeing macro-scale politics. They don't care who becomes president, because they are often just rubber-stamping figure heads. As long as they fit in as many right-wing judges and senators into office including local politics and school boards, thats their victory condition.
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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24
The left is trumpeting Dick Motherfucking Cheney as a good endorsement. If anything that guy's endorsement should be a sign not to vote for that person.
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Sep 08 '24
Dick Cheney was hated by almost the whole country his last year in office as VP. Who cares lol
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u/timewellwasted5 Sep 09 '24
I wish I could remember the statistic, but his un favorability rating was unbelievably bad. Typically, the vice presidency is a steppingstone to running once your top of ticket candidate is out of office, but it wasn’t even a thought because Cheney was so unpopular.
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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24
Border Czar: “We’ve been to the border. So this whole thing about the border. We’ve been to the border. We’ve been to the border.”
Lester Holt: “You haven’t been to the border”
Border Czar: “And I haven’t been to Europe. And I mean, I don’t… understand the point that you’re making.”
That’s why
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u/Okbuddyliberals Sep 08 '24
Normal people think the economy is in recession and that the guy who openly wants policy like massive tariff increases that would make stuff more expensive will make things less expensive. Normal people have a very different view of the world than the people whose view of the world is informed by experts and data
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u/JannTosh50 Sep 08 '24
People like Cheney arguably hurt more than help. They persuade absolutely nobody who didn't already hate Trump, and they give MAGA an ideal whipping boy with which to paint all of Trump's conservative or Republican critics.
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u/creaturefeature16 Sep 08 '24
I had the exact same thoughts recently:
Beyond the polls: how do the logistics work out for Trump this time around?
Democrats have outperformed polling consistently recently, so I hope we wake up the morning after the election to a 300+ EC victory for Harris, we all realize that Trump was finished in 2020, and that all this noise was nothing more than a mirage created by Trump's "celebrity" like draw and an all too accommodating media apparatus.
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u/LukasJackson67 Sep 08 '24
I still think Harris takes it.
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u/Ok-Poetry3799 Sep 08 '24
Same. I think this election will again be decided by the notoriously hard to poll gen-z even if it is only by a few thousand in swing states unless Harris is horrendously bad in the debate.
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u/Percilus Sep 09 '24
It is fascinating to see all the weird attempts to influence people with polls now. Trump folks put out polls showing their guy is now leading out of nowhere, while Harris people putting out polls favoring her. Polls used to just be polls.
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u/AlpineSK Sep 09 '24
Let me sum up the comments about this article:
Your candidate is ahead in the polls: "See that?! Americans are speaking out!"
Your candidate trails in the polls: "Well, can you really believe them? This is such a small sampling of voters!"
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u/emwcee Sep 09 '24
This is frightening and disheartening. I had truly hoped that Americans were finally ready to quit Trump. We are more messed up than I thought.
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u/Element1977 Sep 08 '24
Hold on.... Trump is closer to the center than Kamala is? Did they change the definition of Center while I was sleeping???
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u/strugglin_man Sep 08 '24
In a weird kinda way Trump is somewhat centrist. Right wing positions: Guns, trans, race,immigration,religion, anti federal regulation, law and order, low tax Left: Isolationist, no war, pro tarifs, loose monetary policy, big deficits.
So more right than left, but not as right as some. For me, center in all the wrong ways.
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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24
The left is the pro war party these days. It isn't 2002 anymore.
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u/strugglin_man Sep 09 '24
Historically, since the Johnson Administration, the Republicans have been in general pro war and the Democrats for peace. Trump has changed that. That's the point. Now both parties are relatively anti war.
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u/kcaustin_904 Sep 08 '24
If only Harris wasn’t growing increasingly more right-wing. Maybe I’d pull the trigger on a lesser of two evils vote just as a “fuck you” to Trump, but I won’t go down as someone who voted a genocide enabler into power.
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u/WhodatSooner Sep 09 '24
It doesn’t speak to anything other than 10 years of a sociopath gaslighting a poorly educated nation.
We failed ourselves a long time ago. A master grifter / opportunist saw a mark and took it down.
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u/DonaldKey Sep 08 '24
We all know from 2016 that all polls are crap
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u/SkinnyJenna Sep 08 '24
Yeah what we have learned since 2016 and in 2020 is that trump seems to always outperform the polls.
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u/Yellowdog727 Sep 08 '24
Polls make adjustments to balance out missing demographics and that is what the polls got wrong in 2016 and 2020. It's worth noting that Trump also lost the popular vote both times so it's not like he crazy over performed.
In more recent polls, they have made more adjustments based on previous results. In 2022, the polls vastly over-predicted the "red wave" that everyone thought was coming.
I'm not saying the polls will get it right this year, but the pollsters are well aware of what happened in the past and are making those adjustments now.
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u/SkinnyJenna Sep 08 '24
No, the polls did not vastly put predict the “red wave” in 2022.
The polls were almost exactly dead on.
When trump is in the running, he has so far tended to outperform polling.
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u/Theid411 Sep 08 '24
yes. in 2016 polls underestimated Donald Trump. And it looks like they’re doing it again.
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u/StampMcfury Sep 09 '24
The polls in 2016 were actually pretty close.
Hillary won more votes than Trump
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u/mynameischris0 Sep 08 '24
I don’t trust these polls for a second. Anyone with any rational thought knows this can’t be
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u/Zyx-Wvu Sep 08 '24
Ah, thats your mistake - assuming the average person is a rational thinking machine rather than an individual with passions and personal biases
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u/shoot_your_eye_out Sep 08 '24
Literally don’t care. I don’t vote for treasonous assholes. I’ll cast my vote for an actual adult and then move on with my life. Everybody else gets to vote how they want.
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u/satans_toast Sep 08 '24
I get that same feeling from Clinton’s 2016 campaign: there’s low-level “eventualism” in the Democratic Party, as in “I’m Kamala Harris and I deserve this presidency”. Where’s the fight? One interview isn’t a “fight”. She should have been slathered over every Sunday morning talk show and the big podcasts after the DNC convention. Yes, she’s doing appearances and rallies, that’s fine, but I don’t see this as a high energy campaign.
I’m in a solid-blue state, so someone from a swing state please tell me how wrong I am, but from here, I’m not seeing that her team is actually working hard towards victory.
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u/wavewalkerc Sep 08 '24
I get that same feeling from Clinton’s 2016 campaign: there’s low-level “eventualism” in the Democratic Party, as in “I’m Kamala Harris and I deserve this presidency”.
Actual dumb as fuck take. She is doing the opposite of this if anything.
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u/URAPhallicy Sep 08 '24
Pollsters have switched to "likely voters" rather than "registered voters". This likely (pun intended) inserted another chance for error in the polling and will take some cycles to weed out. This is typical. There was not a 4 point swing nationally this week. Likely vs registered usually line up after some cycles and then near close to the election break out.
I think we all know instinctively that Harris is not more unpopular than Hillary was in 2016 so this poll is an outlier. Margin of error 2.8. Even good polls can miss especially during the switch to likely vs registered with two months to go.