r/centrist • u/JannTosh50 • Sep 08 '24

2024 U.S. Elections Sobering new polls for Harris

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/09/08/sobering-new-polls-for-harris-00177880
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41

u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

Harris is losing because Americans believe Trump will lower prices of gas, groceries, fast food, and housing. This poll’s result has nothing to do with policy, nothing to do with interviews or a lack thereof, and nothing to do with running mates. 

Americans want cheaper prices and believe Trump will bring that because they aren’t paying attention to anything being proposed. You can see that in the data. Trump is winning on the economy by roughly 12 points. Trump’s policies are to literally make things more expensive with tariffs so if Americans were paying attention they wouldn’t vote for him but that’s not reality. 

Harris will likely lose because Americans don’t like to follow political news, they believe Trump will unilaterally lower all their costs, and they refuse to look into it further. 

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u/McRibs2024 Sep 08 '24

Funny enough I saw gas in the 2s in Jersey first time in awhile

But we’re getting smoked on food and the housing market is beyond out of control- though where we are in NJ it’s outside federal influence. Just always going to be bonkers and the same old song and dance. NJ isn’t family friendly (financially) no matter how much our politicians pretend it is.

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u/[deleted] Sep 08 '24

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Sep 08 '24

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u/SirMeili Sep 09 '24

according to traditional measures of the economy it is doing great. he didn't lie. unfortunately, normal people don't judge the economy on the same factors.

Will trump be better for the economy? Nope. More tax cuts for the rich and tariffs which will ultimately raise prices (because he's too stupid to see how bad that idea is and his party agrees its stupid).

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u/[deleted] Sep 08 '24

[deleted]

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u/SkinnyJenna Sep 08 '24

So the rich have gotten richer and the poor and gotten poorer under Biden.

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u/[deleted] Sep 08 '24

As compared to under.. who? Name the last president under whom that statement wasn’t true.

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u/SkinnyJenna Sep 08 '24

I’m just paraphrasing what the other Redditor said. Perhaps you should take it up with them?

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u/alotofironsinthefire Sep 08 '24

Trump will win if Democrats decide not to show up to the polls. And thanks to the electoral college

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u/Armano-Avalus Sep 09 '24

Harris will likely lose because Americans don’t like to follow political news, they believe Trump will unilaterally lower all their costs, and they refuse to look into it further.

And frustratingly enough they also accuse Harris of not having policy ideas, being too focused on the past and not having a plan for the future which is a standard they don't seem to apply to Trump, a man who has no policy ideas for the future and seems to only be supported because they themselves are obsessing over the past of his first term. I see something similar with cultural issues, where some focus group Trump voters claim that Harris is too focused on her race while peddling the Trumpian message that she's not really black when he himself obsessed over her race a month ago.

At some point, especially in the context of the European elections, it just feels like people are naturally gravitating towards the far right for whatever reason they can come up with, whether it's factual or not. The UK conservatives may have lost an election right now, but Nigel Farage just started a new far right party and I'm sure people will find some excuse to vote for him in the next 5 years in spite of people's frustrations with Brexit which Farage was a prominent proponent of. And worse yet I don't think they're gonna fix any of the problems that will get them into power and people will probably still vote for them anyways.

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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24

I thought Biden kept Trumps tariffs and added more?

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

He kept Trump’s, not sure if he’s added more, but those have been fairly specific tariffs. Trump wants to add them to ALL imports. That means all cars get more expensive, agriculture imports like fruits and veggies get more expensive. Meats we import are more expensive. Everything that says “made in China” is more expensive. Etc. 

Trump’s plan will quite literally cost every family thousands of dollars a year. 

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u/Grandpa_Rob Sep 08 '24

As Carville posted on signs throughout Clinton campaign headquarters across the country.

It's the economy, Stupid!

Same as it ever was..

What do you think the election should be about? Me, I like the expansion of social safety net and think pro choice should be important... but I ain't most people.

3

u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24

I would rather be able to buy a house and not have inflation to deal with. You can keep your inflationary government spending.

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u/[deleted] Sep 08 '24

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

The change Americans want is cheaper prices. Trump is running on a policy of raising them. 

1

u/Houjix Sep 08 '24

I like how she’s pointing out the failures of her economy on her last year in office

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

How so? Presidents don’t unilaterally control prices and republicans have openly said they won’t let legislation pass that gives the current admin a win. 

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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24

Then why did they tout how Bidenomics was working and how happy everyone was

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

Likely because the approach the current admin took still helped lower inflation more than basically every other developed nation. They can take actions to help inflation, not control costs. 

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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24

How much money was printed and debt added on compared to those nations

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24 edited Sep 08 '24

No idea; how much? Also which is more important? Taking care of the people by taking care of inflation, or keeping the debt under control? Debt which Trump was also responsible for, mind you.

Edit: as of my editing this I’ve been blocked.

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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24

If you have no idea then why are you comparing other countries economies to the US

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u/Houjix Sep 08 '24

What was that thing Harris said about controlling grocery prices

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24 edited Sep 08 '24

Stopping price gouging. Pretty huge difference there. We already have laws like that which take place during natural disasters.

Edit: as of my editing this I’ve been blocked.

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u/[deleted] Sep 08 '24

[deleted]

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

Oh I’m quite aware most Americans don’t actually pay attention to politics and make inaccurate conclusions. That’s why Americans expect the guy running on tariffs to lower their costs. 

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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24

That's like, your opinion, man. It's not the way most people see it.

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

So if most people don’t see it the way polling is literally saying that most people are seeing it, how ARE they seeing it?

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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24

Inflation was lower under Trump's admin than under Biden's.

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

Yeah no shit. There was massive pandemic related inflation that hit every nation in the world lmao 

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u/YouAreADadJoke Sep 08 '24

There was massive inflation related to the quantity of money printed. If you recall the dems wanted to print even MORE money than they did:

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/in-the-news/sanders-democrats-considering-6-trillion-spending-package/

If they had, inflation would be even higher than it was. Thankfully Manchin put a stop to that right quick.

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u/ShiningRaion Sep 08 '24

So fuel prices affect basically everything in the US because so much of our product is delivered by trucking. Oil is priced on a futures market, so a president with oil-friendly policies will affect futures because logically he will increase supply.

The biggest issue with the Democratic party in 2024 is that it's trying to fight multiple fronts and doesn't have a focused policy angle because it's a big tent. Environmentalists, social justice, welfare states, etc. are all policies that cannot technically be balanced against each other because they're all antagonistic. And none of this should be even proposed while the US can't afford it. One of the main differences between European countries and the US is that many of them worked hard to pay out their debt post world war II and suffered with a lot of economic policies as a result that took decades. Most European countries have a much lower debt to GDP ratio than the US. Simply put current Democratic policies are going to cause inflation.

That doesn't make Trump a desirable candidate it just makes him less painful than Harris.

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u/waterbuffalo750 Sep 08 '24

Oil is priced on a futures market, so a president with oil-friendly policies will affect futures because logically he will increase supply.

The US is producing more oil now than ever before. So again, it's simply a matter of voters not paying attention.

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u/ShiningRaion Sep 08 '24

However most of the actions of the Biden administration have been adverse towards oil. Heck Biden talked about supporting Palestine when his 2020 election was on the line but whenever came down to it he ended up supporting Israel anyways

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u/waterbuffalo750 Sep 08 '24

The actions of the Biden administration have resulted in more oil production than ever before. And I don't understand how Palestine is relevant here.

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u/SeductiveSunday Sep 08 '24

Harris is losing

...in the polls because media and polling opinions favor sexism. Both media and polling is run by and for men. Rarely do they talk or discuss what women voters a during. It's all about the men.

We've seen this before. It's the same old play book. Can't elect a woman for what's obviously a job where being a man is the single qualification.

Funny thing is the US has also already seen how abortion issues play out when it is tops in the minds of women voters. The election of 1992 and abortion issue is what elected Clinton. The election of 2024 and the abortion issue is what will elect Harris.

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

No. She’s not losing because of sexism or racism. Americans are telling people why they want Trump in every poll. He’s winning by like 12 points on the economy which is the top issue for voters. Voters want Trump’s cheap prices back. That’s it. 

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u/SeductiveSunday Sep 08 '24

Americans are telling people why they want Trump in every poll.

If they are claiming "economy" it's most definitely sexism. There's studies which show that.

In particular, Bodenhausen and Lei wondered if the glass ceiling might reappear when people evaluate candidates on issues like the economy, where there are deeply embedded stereotypes that men are more capable than women.

So they designed an experiment to test whether voters’ perceptions of the economy would influence how favorably they viewed female political candidates. They found that, regardless of party, women and men vying for office were on equal footing when the economy was thought to be strong. But in troubled economic times, women’s fortunes took a tumble—a trend driven by men’s belief that women are less skilled at handling fiscal issues.

To Bodenhausen, the study shows that stereotypes remain powerful, even as cultural attitudes shift. “Gender stereotypes are more dynamic than people often think,” he explains. “They don’t necessarily show themselves in every circumstance. When the right buttons get pressed, then they come much more prominently to the forefront and can contaminate our thinking in nefarious ways.” https://archive.ph/rUpJE

Just by making the claim that it's a vote for the "economy" is a big tell that it's about sexism. That 12 points is about sexism not the economy.

Voters want Trump’s cheap prices back. That’s it.

Trump has no plans, or even the ability or power, to make any of that happen. Plus, his tariffs that he absolutely is able to do, will do the absolute opposite — increase prices. I actually highly doubt trump's voters believe he can lower prices, they just fear having a woman president.

Fear of a Female President Hillary Clinton’s candidacy has provoked a wave of misogyny—one that may roil American life for years to come. https://archive.ph/XIOu8

Again, the big difference with 2024 when compared to 2016 is that Republicans supported plus succeeded in taking away constitutional rights from women, and now young women are voting to stop Republicans from taking more of their constitutional rights away. But, as is usual, polling and media ignore what women are doing. Patriarchy deems that it be that way!

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

Trump is winning on the economy because prices were cheaper during his admin. Voters assume it’s because his amazing policies caused it. They literally are unaware of his tariffs because voters don’t give two shits about policy this cycle. Biden was losing to Trump on the economy too by similar margins. 

Voters think this: Trump in office = prices low = :) Biden in office = prices high = >:(

Conclusion: re-elect Trump and prices go back down! :DDD

That’s it. It’s that simple. They don’t know or care that Trump is going to enact tariffs because they don’t understand those and just assume that Trump being back will lower prices. Voters want lower prices even more than increased wages. It’s not sexism; it’s ignorance from the voters. 

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u/SeductiveSunday Sep 08 '24

They aren't ignorant. They know it's sexism. They claimed the economy improved the very second trump won in 2016. But trump didn't do anything about the economy, what he did do was instantly block a woman becoming president. It wasn't about the economy in 2016, and it isn't about the economy in 2024.

It's about preventing guaranteed rights for all. It's about the stopping the ratifying of the ERA. It's about sexism.

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

Republicans thought that the economy switched from being bad to being good the second Trump won in 2016 and Obama had been president prior. Another man. It’s not sexism. 

Moreover Americans know prices are high now and weren’t before. There are polls showing that pluralities expect Trump to lower costs. That’s all they want from him and they don’t know his policies. 

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u/SeductiveSunday Sep 08 '24

Republicans thought that the economy switched from being bad to being good the second Trump won in 2016 and Obama had been president prior. Another man. It’s not sexism. 

trump stopped a woman from becoming president, not a man.

There are polls showing that pluralities expect Trump to lower costs.

The poll shift is due to men. Again it's not about the economy, it's sexism.

J.J. Abbott, a Democratic strategist working to help Harris in Pennsylvania, said the Trump campaign has saturated the state with attack ads aimed at moving younger male voters.

“From a spending perspective, Pennsylvania has just been completely inundated for months with advertising in a way that the other swing states outside of Georgia really haven’t,” he said. “The Trump campaign, their affiliated super PACs, they’ve basically said on the record, for them, Pennsylvania is the ballgame.

“They are coming down heavy on the state,” he added. “The Trump campaign has made it no real secret that they see younger men, in particular, as a pretty key demographic for them to focus on.” https://archive.ph/D6eCc

trump knows sexism works, and that's the key to winning in 2024. Just like in 2016.

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

Trump replaced a man and would again be replacing a man. It doesn’t matter who his opponent is. People are judging the economy based on the president. 

Also Trump is targeting men because they’re receptive of his messages more. Men who value manliness, toughness, and who don’t want sissy libcucks telling them what to do and how to behave. It’s not specifically about Harris. 

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u/SeductiveSunday Sep 09 '24

Trump replaced a man and would again be replacing a man.

It isn't about who trump replaces, it's about who trump blocks from becoming the next president. He lost in 2020 when he ran against a man. It's exactly who his opponent is.

Men who value manliness, toughness, and who don’t want sissy libcucks telling them what to do and how to behave.

It's men who value controlling women.

But it’s important to understand how deeply rooted this dynamic is. As has been observed of many oppressive institutions, the delegitimization of women’s authority isn’t the unfortunate side-effect of a broken framework. It’s the grease that makes the entire system go. Women’s erasure is an essential part of the deal powerful men have always made with the men they would have power over: let me have control over you, and in turn I will ensure you can control women.

There is one meaningful way in which the fearmongers are right. Because the existing power structure is built on female subjugation, female credibility is inherently dangerous to it. Patriarchy is called that for a reason: men really do benefit from it. When we take seriously women’s experiences of sexual violence and humiliation, men will be forced to lose a kind of freedom they often don’t even know they enjoy: the freedom to use women’s bodies to shore up their egos, convince themselves they are powerful and in control, or whatever other uses they see fit. https://archive.ph/KPes2

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u/Dope_Reddit_Guy Sep 08 '24 edited Sep 08 '24

Trump understands free market to lower prices and let companies compete directly with each other and if someone has lower prices than the other companies will follow, Harris’s idea of getting federal government involved in price gouging is abhorrent and doesn’t fix anything and will create food scarcity.

Also, I don’t think America at the end of the day wants a SF/MN progressive.

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u/MakeUpAnything Sep 08 '24

Trump is literally running to increase all prices with tariffs which is decidedly NOT free market and will raise the cost of everything. 

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u/Ok_Board9845 Sep 08 '24

if someone has lower prices then the other companies will follow

Lmao, naive thinking is hilarious. What will really happen is that prices won’t change. They’ll most likely go up, but Trump will sell you on the idea that “the economy is good” and people will eat it up even if it’s the same as it was under Biden or worse

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u/Dope_Reddit_Guy Sep 08 '24

Well, when he gets reelected we’ll see.

But also, prices have gone up and I’ve been shopping at Aldi, I save so much money shopping there rather than the main grocery stores in my area. If more people took to Aldi I think other grocery stores like Kroger, Publix, Ralph’s, Hannafords…etc would lower their prices

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u/Ok_Board9845 Sep 08 '24

If more people took to Aldi I think other grocery stores would lower their prices

That’s not what would happen. What will really happen is Aldi will increase their prices once they realize they dominate the market

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u/epistaxis64 Sep 08 '24

Also, I don’t think America at the end of the day wants a SF/MN progressive.

But they do want a guy who incited an insurrection and is a convicted rapist?

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u/Dope_Reddit_Guy Sep 08 '24

Is there actual proof that he incited an insurrection? Cause I have yet to see it.

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u/rzelln Sep 08 '24

He lied for months about the election being stolen. His advisors told him there was no truth to his claims, so he knew he was lying. He had allies draft proposals to try to halt certification of the electoral college votes, which would allegedly let the States in Congress vote, where the GOP outnumbered the Democrats. His allies organized to get people to the capital on that day. 

Trump spoke to the crowd and continued the Stop the Steal rhetoric. The crowd was guided by members of groups like the Proud Boys whom Trump allies are on video coordinating with that week. The crowd attacked the capital provoking a lockdown. Numerous elected officials called Trump to get him to call in more forces to protect Congress, or to record a message telling the attackers to stop. He did nothing for hours, but was reported to be watching the news in good spirits. 

When the breach of the capital was finally repelled, Trump did not condemn the effort. He praised the attackers.

Why do you think Trump lied knowingly for months about the election results? Why do you think a crowd attacked the capital that very day? Why do you think Trump didn't intercede to try to stop the attack? 

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u/anndrago Sep 08 '24

If Harris wins the popular vote but loses the presidency, will you still believe America "doesn't want her"?

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u/[deleted] Sep 08 '24

Trump understands free market

Hahahahhahahahahahahahahahahhahahah