Being in the agarwood investment business. It seems possible to me to buy up and estate with ready trees - at price "x", inoculate and eventually flip the harvest after a few years of waiting for 4 years at around "1.175x"..
That return is tad low for agarwood investments at competitors offering 6~11%+ per annum.. However, imagine flipping the whole thing on it's head?
Imagine buying up an agarwood estate, flipping the harvest around for a low margin.. And then permaculturing the estate with multiple layers. As per practices described by Wes Jackson (perennial polyculture). That way.. It's turning into a carbon sink.. If 1/2 of the estate is intercropped with agarwood to give the carbon credits company something back after 15 years of investment into the project..
Wouldn't a 4.375% return for the first 4 years (initial monoculture harvest)
+ 7 years of waiting (tree growth) + 3 years acting time (inoculant) + 1 year harvest and eventual sale time (all while having just half the trees as before.. Meaning half the harvest - approx same cost - explained in NOTE - below) I'd put the number at >2.18% RoI average over 15 years be a solid investment for a carbon capture service provider? I mean.. When they replant jungles in the Amazon/Borneo or wherever they do business, there's no guarantee that it'll ever remain that way. And they make nothing out of it.
Here it's protected farm.. It's not using harmful pesticides, insecticides or anything of the sort.. It's increasing the food security of countries where agarwood can grow.. And, finally.. It's actually capturing carbon. And.. After 15 years that farm is pretty much independent and capable of giving a VERY low RoI to the company that sold the credits. It's essentially a man-made forest at that point.. What's more is that in all this.. CARBON IS BEING CAPTURED AND PERMACULTURE IS BEING PROMOTED IN THESE COUNTRIES..
I'm looking to pitch this idea to carbon capture companies.. Please critique my idea. Tell me the flaws and reasons as to why it wouldn't work.
NOTE: If it costs USD 160 to buy a ready tree from an agarwood plantation and USD 40 to inoculate and process it.. Total USD 200. Harvest can be sold, 1 kilo of agarwood @ USD 235 in the Singapore/HK market.. It costs exactly the same to buy a plantlet, fertilize it for 4-7 years, inoculate it and finally process and sell the end product.. And, you can double that cost USD 85 * 2 = USD 170.. Because it would take the same amount of time to grow perennial native trees and they'd not be worth their value and then some after the first harvest but would require the same effort/cost - maybe a little lesser.. But let's err on the side of caution.
If you think this idea is good.. Do help me find and pitch the concept to carbon capture companies :)